Dense Fog in Missouri, February 20, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
344 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 344 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016

Updated to show Dense Fog Advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 306 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016

The region should remain dry today however precipitation chances
probably won't be too far away from our southern CWA border as
isentropic upglide begins on the I295 surface there. According to
time heights etc moisture will be relatively shallow so will keep
dry for now.

Precipitation chances increase significantly tonight as upstream
upper level energy pushes a surface low and associated cold front
into the region. Probabilities should be highest across the
northern/northeastern half of the CWA nearest the track of the low.
Surface based instability is not impressive but enough to
produce a rumble of thunder or two, especially this time of year.

The front is forecast to clear the southeast corner of our CWA
around midday Sunday so precipitation chances diminish from northwest
to southeast. Still a sliver of instability over the southeast third
of our CWA Monday morning ahead of the front so included SCHC
thunder there.

High pressure building across the region in the wake of the front
should keep the region dry through the rest of the short term period.

Even with the aforementioned frontal passage, temperatures will
remain above normal through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 306 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016

Medium confidence in extended at best.

The operational models are very different from WPC progs with the
path of the surface low. The GFS and ECMWF have similar solutions
mid week...bringing a vertically stacked low out of the southwest
passing to our east as it lifts to the northeast US. While the progs
bring a cold front from the northwest through the area. Either way
as different as they may be brings a chance of precip to the
heartland. With current temperature forecast had to at least give
wintry mix in the night time hours. The good news is right now it
does not look like a major impact to the area. However with the run
to run discrepancies among the models will have to monitor closely
for fine tuning this mid week event. Temperatures will cool back
down after the weekend to at or below normal for the latter part of
the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1132 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016

Surface winds will retain their southwesterly/south southwesterly
component overnight. While any cigs in the northern half of the
region should remain VFR, there is some uncertainty as to the
forecast sky conditions in the southern half of the region. Not sure
if MVFR cigs will develop on Saturday, with some subtle lift
forecast to occur just south of the AR/TN state line. For now, we
will maintain a scattered layer AOB 3 kft, with a VFR cig there. As
an area of low surface pressure moves into the region late in the
06Z TAF period (generally after 00Z), IFR conditions will be
increasingly likely in rain and fog.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning for ILZ075>078-
     080>087.

MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
335 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-211000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
335 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING GENERALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MOUNT CARMEL ILLINOIS TO CAPE GIRARDEAU
MISSOURI. PLEASE SEE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE TONIGHT BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
COULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS...HOWEVER THE STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM GREENVILLE KENTUCKY TO NEW MADRID MISSOURI. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

JP