Guam, 2016

High Surf in Guam, February 20 to 25, 2016

February 20 to 25, 2016 · NWS GUM · 1 event in 1 county or zone

Long period swell and combined seas caused hazardous surf on east facing reefs of the|Marianas for a few days in February.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
1
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS GUM wrote it up.

Long period swell and combined seas caused hazardous surf on east facing reefs of the|Marianas for a few days in February.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Guam wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 19, 8:06 AM UTC, 11 hours 54 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 19, 8:06 AM UTC, 11 hours 54 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
606 PM CHST FRI FEB 19 2016

SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
THE MARIANAS WATERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 13 TO 23 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 4 THOUSAND FEET OF THE
AIR. ABOVE THIS THE WINDS TURN TOWARD THE EAST THROUGH 8 THOUSAND
FEET...THEN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ABOVE THIS.

&&

DISCUSSION...
MODEL DATA IS FLOWING INTO AWIPS MUCH BETTER NOW...MAKING
COMPARISONS EASIER. THE GFS40 SHOWS EXCELLENT RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY INDICATING A WET PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEXT WEEK. NOW THAT THE FIRST RUN OF THE ECMWF-
HIRES IN A WEEK HAS COME INTO AWIPS...IT IS IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THAT SCENARIO. THIS MEANS WE NOW HAVE SOME GOOD
MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY AS WELL. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND PUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR
NOT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST PUT A TEMPORARY DAMPER ON THE
DROUGHT INDEX.

&&

MARINE...
SEAS BOTTOMED OUT YESTERDAY...AND HAVE NOW STARTED RISING. THEY
WILL MOST LIKELY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE EXACTLY WHEN. SURF ON
EAST FACING REEFS WILL LIKELY EXCEED HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA
ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE WIND PRODUCING THESE WAVES IS TO THE EAST
OF THE MARIANAS...SO A PUBLIC WIND ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...
THE KBDI CONTINUES ITS METEORIC UPWARD RISE...REACHING 733 TODAY.
THE HIGHEST IN ANY OF MY 60 YEAR DATABASE FOR THIS DAY WAS 713
WHICH WAS IN 2009. A FEW DAYS FROM NOW...2009 HAD A WETTING RAIN
SO WE WILL THEN BE COMPETING DIRECTLY WITH 1998. 1998 WAS ONE OF
THE GREAT FIRE WEATHER SEASONS OF OLD TIMES FOR GUAM...AND THE
KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX IS NOW 47 POINTS AHEAD OF THAT YEAR.
THIS IS GOING TO BE ONE FOR FORESTRY AND FIRE CREWS TO WATCH
CAREFULLY IN THE WEEKS AHEAD.

&&

UPDATED TO ADD MICRONESIA DISCUSSIONS

EASTERN MICRONESIA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM CHUUK
STATE EASTWARD TO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS THRU MIDWEEK. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADES CURRENTLY NORTHEAST OF THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS MIGHT TRIGGER SOME PASSING SHOWERS NEAR MAJURO
THIS WEEKEND...KOSRAE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND POHNPEI...CHUUK TOWARD
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...A FAIRLY DRY TRADE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

LARGE NORTHEAST TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS
SURF FROM POHNPEI STATE EASTWARD TO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL ALSO
CONTINUE NEAR CHUUK THRU SUNDAY EVENING...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THRU
SATURDAY EVENING AND MAJURO THRU MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DISCUSSION FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST IS INCLUDED IN EASTERN
MICRONESIA DUE TO A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM SOUTH OF MINDANAO
THRU 3N130E TO BEYOND 150E AT 2N. CONVERGING TRADE WINDS NORTH OF
THIS FEATURE ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF KOROR AND YAP NEAR 5N. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF JAPAN NEAR 30N132E SHOULD KEEP THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENT AREA IN PLACE THRU SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND...A DEVELOPING FRONTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY NORTH OF TAIWAN WILL TRACK EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS MIGHT ALLOW THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH AND
RELATED CONVERGENT AREA TO SHIFT NORTHWARD CLOSER TO KOROR AND
YAP. IF SO...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR BOTH
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR KOROR WILL INCREASE. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE EAST COAST OF CHINA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL LOW SHOULD DISPLACE THE TROUGH AND
CONVERGENT AREA BACK DOWN SOUTH.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

STANKO/CHAN

Event by event

1 high surf. Local standard time, as filed.

High Surf, Guam

When
February 20, 6:00 AM GST to February 25, 3:00 PM GST
Where
Guam forecast zone
Injuries
1 direct, 0 indirect
Reported by
Newspaper

A woman in her 30s, who was fishing on a platform off of Ipan, Talofofo Guam|was possibly swept into the ocean by a wave. At around 9 am the Coast Guard notified employees at Jeff's Pirates Cove, a restaurant and entertainment facility on the east coast of Guam, about a swimmer in distress. Jeff Pirate's Cove employees have rescued many people in the past (recipient of a NOAA Environmental Hero Award for 2010) and the establishment even has its own rescue boats to assist in this effort. The Coast Guard estimated that it would have been too late for them to attempt a rescue and therefore notified Jeff's Pirates Cove. Two employees from Jeff's went out in kayaks in an attempt to rescue the lady. She was 400 yards offshore and despite the strong currents managed to stay afloat for 20 minutes, which was enough time for the kayaks to arrive at the woman's location. One of the kayaks helped the woman make it to the safety of the shore 40 minutes later. The woman may have been in shock, but refused medical services offered by the Guam Fire Department Rescue personnel.

The Ipan buoy did observe a maximum wave height of 18 feet an hour later at 10:00 am (21/0000Z). The period of the wave was 8.6 seconds. The average swell was, however, lower at 5 feet with a period of 11 seconds. Based on the buoy, he average sea height at the time was calculated to be around 7 to 8 feet.

A High Surf Advisory was in effect at the time for surf of 10 to 12 feet along the east facing reefs.

What these are

High Surf
Large waves breaking on the shore that caused damage, erosion or casualties.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Guam in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Guam, February 2016

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 620332.