Thunderstorms developed during the evening of July 12th across southeast Minnesota. These storms formed ahead of a cold front that was approaching the region.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ARX wrote it up.
Thunderstorms developed during the evening of July 12th across southeast Minnesota. These storms formed ahead of a cold front that was approaching the region. Some of these storms briefly produced damaging wind gusts that blew down trees in Rushford (Fillmore County) and blew the roof off a building in Mabel (Fillmore County).
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS La Crosse, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 11, 10:00 PM CST, 1 hour 43 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1100 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 .UPDATED... Issued at 935 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016 Later than previously expected arrival for the line of showers/storms to the west. Instability remains decent near 2k j/kg mucape...but little if any shear to speak off. Moisture is high through...with RAP pws over 2 inches, warm cloud depth 4 km, and a ribbon of 850 mb moisture transport through the area. Think the main severe threat of wind/hail will hold west for the rest of the night. A few stronger storms (severe?) still possible, but the longer it takes for the line to move in, the lesser that threat. HOWEVER...the potential for heavy rain is high. If training occurs, localized/urban flooding could/would result. 1-2" per hour rainfall rates not out of the question. Line is mostly north-south, but individual storms moving northeast. Definitely something to watch closely overnight. Stronger wind gusts still possible too. .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016 Main forecast concerns in the short-term are on strong to severe thunderstorm potential tonight and again Tuesday afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms were ongoing this afternoon across portions of central/northern Minnesota, all on the nose of strong 850 mb moisture transport. Low pressure was centered near Sioux Falls South Dakota, with a warm front extending across central Minnesota into west central Wisconsin. The strong 850 MB moisture transport focused into the warm front will keep thunderstorms going this afternoon into this evening, especially near the front. Further to the south, where skies are partly sunny, destabilization is occurring across portions of southern Minnesota into central and western Iowa ahead of a frontal boundary. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across these areas late this afternoon into this evening then push east into southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa. Strong instability will be present with MUCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/KG. However, shear is lacking. The bulk of the shear is located in the 0-3 KM layer and is only around 20 to 30 kts with even weaker values noted across western into central Wisconsin. Shear actually looks a little more favorable for storm organization across portions of northern Wisconsin, but CAPE values are not as favorable. Heavy rain and gusty winds look to be the main threat with any storms for the local area. Precipitable water values climb to around 2 inches tonight. These values combined with warm cloud depths of 4 KM will result in efficient rain production. Will have to keep a close eye on the warm front and any outflow boundaries where we could see some training of storms. Most of the activity should be progressive but given the moist environment and weak flow aloft, we could see some ponding of water in poor drainage areas and possibly isolated flash flooding if storms train over any areas. Look for the thunderstorms to taper off late in the night and end Tuesday morning. Important to note that the storms will be on a weakening trend as they approach and move east of the Mississippi River. For Tuesday afternoon and evening...There is considerable uncertainty on severe thunderstorm potential and the impact the morning showers and storms could have. A weak frontal boundary looks to bisect the forecast area from southwest to northeast but there doesn't appear to be much convergence along it. CAPE and shear values really start to ramp up by later afternoon into the evening hours as we get into maximum heating and a belt of stronger westerlies aloft. Some of the convective allowing models are suggesting storms could develop to our southeast and we may not see much if any activity tomorrow. The operational NAM and GFS develop convection closer to the front which would impact portions of northeast Iowa into southwest and central Wisconsin. If storms develop over the forecast area during the afternoon and evening hours, large hail and damaging winds would be the main threats. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016 Main forecast concern is on severe thunderstorm potential Wednesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday may end up being the day of most concern for severe thunderstorm potential. A cold front will be marching southeast across the forecast area by early in the day on Wednesday with strong instability developing ahead of the front. In fact, MUCAPE values could climb over 4000 J/KG. Also, fairly strong shear will be in place with 0-6 KM Bulk Shear values of 50 to 55 KTS. If these parameters come together, Supercells would be possible with the potential for very large hail and damaging winds. 0-1 KM Bulk Shear values of 10 to 15 KTS are expected so not seeing a great potential for tornadoes but cannot rule them out, especially if this Supercell environment is realized. Late tuesday night into early Wednesday morning thunderstorm activity could impact this significantly, and we may not see these parameters come together. Continue to monitor this timeframe closely. Beyond Wednesday, northwest flow sets up across the region with a few weak shortwaves moving across the forecast area through the weekend. These may bring low chances for showers and thunderstorms to the region. Behind the front on Wednesday, look for cooler and more comfortable humidity levels. Plan on highs falling back mainly into the 70s with lows in the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016 Line of shra/ts making steady but slow progress east tonight...with latest timing getting it to krst by 06z and klse closer to 08-09z. Going to lose some of its previous punch, but heavy rain likely with the stronger storms, and some gusty winds also possible. Mostly associated with vfr cigs right now...and will keep that trend. Front slips southeast on Tue...and will likely keep the area of storm redevelopment to the south also. The NAM suggests that a thin line of convection could develop mid/late morning Tue near klse...associated with a bit of upper level energy and near the sfc front. Most other models don't though...so will keep the tafs pcpn free in this time period. Looks VFR - for the most part - after the current storms move through. && .ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && UPDATED...Rieck SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION...Rieck
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 937 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029- 032>034-041>044-053>055-061-121000- MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE- CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON- TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU- ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT- 937 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. LOCALIZED OR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF STORMS LINGER OR REPEATEDLY TRACK OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS. MORE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THERE ARE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY INTO WEEKEND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... A FEW SPOTTER GROUPS MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. .EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION... NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1135 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ086>088-094>096-120600- MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE- CLAYTON-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSAGE...CRESCO...DECORAH...WAUKON... CHARLES CITY...NEW HAMPTON...OELWEIN...ELKADER...DODGE CENTER... ROCHESTER...WINONA...AUSTIN...PRESTON...CALEDONIA 1135 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 ...STORMS MOVING IN... A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 1 AM. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. LOCALIZED OR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF STORMS LINGER OR REPEATEDLY TRACK OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. RIECK
The La Crosse radar (KARX), 57 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 05:41 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The roof was blown off a building in Mabel.
Several trees were blown down in and near Rushford.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 646579, 646578.