A warm and humid air mass ahead of a low pressure system approaching from the Northern Plains set the stage for the formation of severe thunderstorms over portions of Gogebic County from late evening on the 11th into the early morning of the 12th. The storms caused flash flooding and damaging winds over portions of Gogebic County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MQT wrote it up.
A warm and humid air mass ahead of a low pressure system approaching from the Northern Plains set the stage for the formation of severe thunderstorms over portions of Gogebic County from late evening on the 11th into the early morning of the 12th. The storms caused flash flooding and damaging winds over portions of Gogebic County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 11, 5:09 PM CST, 1 hour 39 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 709 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 433 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over northeast Montana lifting into srn Saskatchewan and a ridge from the srn plains into the cntrl Great Lakes resulting in sw flow toward the upper MS valley and wrn Great Lakes. At the surface, srly flow prevailed through the Upper MS valley and wrn lakes ahead a front/trough over the ern Dakotas. Shra/tsra associated with mcv from last night's convection has exited the ern cwa. However, additional mainly elevated convection continued from near DLH westward supported by northward flow of very unstable air near the 925-850 mb front. An area of tsra near the lake breeze boundary or just above the marine layer was moving ne along the lakeshore to near Ontonagon. Late this afternoon and early evening, some shra/tsra will be possible near the Keweenaw. Otherwise, partial clearing with warm and humid conditions are expected Tonight, higher res models suggest that convection will increase again over nrn to cntrl MN as low level inflow strengthens and a shrtwv lifts through the Dakotas. Upscale development is likely with another MCS moving toward the wrn CWA by late evening. There is more uncertainty overnight. Although the convection moves away from the higher instability and forcing ahead of the shrtwv and toward area with increased capping, MUCAPE values in the 1k-2k J/Kg range should still be available. So, expect that the convection may diminish in coverage and intensity but still survive into cntrl Upper Michigan with some lighter rainfall amounts. Effective shear values into the 30-35kt range could support some stronger storms with small hail an gusty winds. Tuesday, any ongoing shra/tsra through the cntrl cwa should further weaken during the morning. Although the front becomes less defined, some leftover outflow boundaries and diurnal heating boosting MLCAPE values into the 2k-3k J/Kg range may be enough to allow additional ts development mainly s cntrl. With 30-40 kt 0-6km shear and the high instability any ts may become svr with large hail and damaging winds possible. Otherwise, uncomfortable conditions will prevail with dewpoints still in the mid to upper 60s and max temps in the mid to upper 80s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 407 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 Tuesday night into Wednesday morning: Upper level ridging will be in place across the far eastern portion of the U.S. while a stronger low pressure system slides across south-central Canada and the northern Plains. This will place the U.P. on the inflection point between the two systems. The increased moisture/instability over the eastern U.P. Tuesday night may allow for a few showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Drier air and more stable air (stronger capping) will slide into the area overnight into Wednesday morning, allowing the showers and thunderstorms to diminish from west to east. Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening: As the Upper level ridging continues to slide eastward, a cold front and shortwave will slide across the U.P. The slightly increased moisture rotating in with these features, along with afternoon heating, will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area. Currently, the timing of the cold front would place the eastern half of the U.P. under the best chance of seeing showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. MUCAPE values are progged to between 1500 J/KG and 2500 J/KG over the east half along with deep layer shear of 30 to 40 knots, nearly perpendicular to the front, will allow for increased chances of strong to severe thunderstorms. SPC has much of the eastern U.P. under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms ahead of the front. A limiting factor is that there is not a lot of moisture for the system to work with, so the overall coverage will probably be limited across the area. Overnight Wednesday through Thursday night: The GFS/EC have much of the eastern U.S. under the influence of an upper level 500mb trough. This, along with several shortwaves rotating around the trough, will act to cool the temperatures closer to normal and provide intermittent chances for rain showers through this time period. at this point have gone with a consensus of the models as timing of the waves will end up being key to the increased chances of rain showers. Friday: A surface ridge, drier air and lack of notable shortwave will allow for a brief break in the rain shower activity for most of the Upper Great Lakes region. Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal, generally topping out in mid to upper 70s. Saturday through the extended: The Upper Great Lakes region will be under the influence of zonal to slight upper level 500mb troughing through this period as a ridge begins to build across the Plains states. This will keep the pattern fairly messy through the extended as shortwaves continue to slide through the area. Again, without any main area of focus will stick with a consensus of the models through this time period with intermittent chances of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 709 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 Next chance of shra/tsra is expected late this evening/overnight at IWD and CMX as a cold front approaches from the Plains. A big question is with the amount of mid-lvl capping how much of this developing convection will hold together as front moves toward the western TAF sites. Given uncertainty have just VCTS at IWD and VCSH CMX late tonight while maintaining VFR conditions. SAW will stay VFR for most of the period and be high mvfr Tue morning for ceilings. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 420 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 Low pressure over the Northern Plains will lift into south central Canada tonight as a trough crosses the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday with a secondary trough moving through Wednesday as the low lifts through Ontario to Hudson Bay. Another trough will slide across Lake Superior Thursday into Thursday night as the aforementioned low is slow to slide north and east of the Upper Great Lakes. High pressure will briefly build across Lake Superior on Friday bringing calm conditions. The pressure gradient through the forecast period will be relatively weak, as a result, winds will be 20 knots or less throughout much of the period. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...07 MARINE...KEC
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 349 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 MIZ001>004-009-010-084-121200- KEWEENAW-ONTONAGON-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-BARAGA-GOGEBIC-IRON- SOUTHERN HOUGHTON- 349 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 /249 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG LATE TONIGHT...PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING...AND THEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALSO SUNDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT. SPOTTERS AND THE PUBLIC ARE ENCOURAGED TO SEND REPORTS OF HAIL OR HIGH WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MARQUETTE BY PHONE...FACEBOOK OR TWITTER. MIZ005>007-011>014-085-121200- MARQUETTE-ALGER-LUCE-DICKINSON-MENOMINEE-DELTA- SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT- 349 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 /249 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF AN ESCANABA TO MARQUETTE LINE LATE TONIGHT. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LSZ162-240>251-263>267-121200- LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO GRAND PORTAGE MN BEYOND 5NM-SAXON HARBOR WI TO BLACK RIVER MI- BLACK RIVER TO ONTONAGON MI- ONTONAGON TO UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI- UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO EAGLE RIVER MI- EAGLE RIVER TO MANITOU ISLAND MI- MANITOU ISLAND TO POINT ISABELLE MI- POINT ISABELLE TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI- LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS-HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI- MARQUETTE TO MUNISING MI-MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS MI- GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT MI- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INCLUDING ISLE ROYALE NATIONAL PARK- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL TO MANITOU ISLAND MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER- LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE- LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF A LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO WHITEFISH POINT MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER- 349 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 /249 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME OF THE STORMS TONIGHT OVER THE WEST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR COULD BE STRONG...PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LMZ221-248-250-121200- GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI- 5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE- 349 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. KEC
The Duluth radar (KDLH), 151 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:50 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 2 tornado, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Gogebic County Sheriff's office reported large trees in excess of 12 inches in diameter down across Lake Road near Upper Powers Road. The Gogebic County Road Commission was clearing the road with front end loaders.
Radar estimated rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches caused major flash flooding over portions of far western Gogebic County and left many sections of road washed out and impassible. Many people became stranded from near Ironwood to Little Girls Point. The Gogebic County Sheriff reported the Montreal River flooded on Lake Road at the Michigan-Wisconsin border with a washout of the guardrail at the Flint Creek ravine. A Gogebic County patrol car was swept up in the Montreal River flood waters and the deputy driving the car needed to be rescued.The Gogebic County Road Commission closed Lake Road from near Saxon Harbor, WI to Lower Powers Road.
An EF1 tornado touched down near the Wisconsin-Michigan border just southeast of Van Buskirk and caused damage for less than a mile before dissipating. Damage consisted mostly of uprooted or snapped trees.
The NWS storm survey confirmed a low end EF1 tornado about three miles south of Bessemer. Winds from the tornado were estimated around 90 mph. The tornado touched down near the intersection of S. Barber Road and Spruce Road and ended 2.4 miles to the east-northeast, just northeast of the intersection of W. Harding Road and Koski Road. Damage included multiple trees down on a garage on Spruce Street and half a barn destroyed in Bessemer Township on Elder Street.
|The damage path was 200 yards wide or less and occurred just before midnight CDT.
The NWS storm survey concluded that damage in and immediately surrounding Wakefield was caused by straight-line thunderstorm winds up to 90 mph. Wind damage included an overturned camper trailer, a roof ripped off an old skating rink, a few damaged or destroyed outbuildings, hundreds of large uprooted or snapped trees (some 30 to 40 inches in diameter), downed power lines, and several trees downed on houses or vehicles. The survey team could not access all areas around Wakefield due to the number of downed trees. The time of the report was based on radar, observations and interviews of individuals in the area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Michigan, 2016Warnings in Michigan, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 649311, 649312, 649529, 649456, 649436.