Damaging Winds in Minnesota, July 11, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1056 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

New severe Thunderstorm Watch #370 has been issued for most of
eastern ND and portions of northwest through west central MN. The
timing on the current Squall Line in central ND has been a bit
slower than expected while deep convection has been slow to get
started in northeast SD. However... those elements are progressing
and should press into and across the FA during the overnight
period.

UPDATE Issued at 906 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

Storms are starting to fire near ABR...on the nose of the low
level jet pushing up through central SD...and in advance of the
approaching Squall Line MCS which is currently impacting the BIS
area. The fairly linear MCS extends in two waveleths from
southeast Sask near Yorkton...through Minot and Bismarck...southward
into ncntrl SD west of Mobridge. The section south of Minot
through Bismarck into Mobridge shows the highest potential for
developing a bowing segment into east-central and southeastern ND
through the late evening. Current Severe Thunderstorm watch 369
continues in effect through 11 pm CDT.

UPDATE Issued /Updated/ at 635 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 369 has been issued for most of
central and part of eastern North Dakota through 11 pm CDT.
Storms could move into the Devils Lake Basin after 8 pm CDT.

Later this evening... it is likely that there will be an eastward
extension of the Watch area into and across the Red River Valley
corridor and into portions of northwest and west central
Minnesota... which will extend into the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

An approaching upper level low over the northern Rockies continues
to progress eastward today. Southerly low level flow will continue
to advect warm/moist air northward ahead of a developing surface
low over the northern high plains. The recent thunderstorm
activity led to a lag in the warming today across the area. Ended
up cancelling the Heat Advisory. Currently expecting storms to
develop in northeast SD in the vicinity of warm frontal boundary
pushing northward. Also, thunderstorms developing over western ND
this afternoon are expected to transition eastward...and possibly
develop into an mesoscale convective system late in the evening
and overnight in our forecast area. An Enhanced risk for severe
storms still exists for much of ND...with a Slight risk located
over NW and w-central MN. A tornado threat will still exist
tonight...but decreases as the system pushes east. The hail and
wind threat will still be rather high. As the system drifts east
tonight...areas of heavy rain will be possible as well due to
recent rains and the high amount of potential moisture with this
system.

Tomorrow...expect thunderstorms to be lingering in north central
MN early in the morning. A cold front will push east late in the
day tomorrow...with models differing on timing. A severe threat
(slight risk) will ahead of this front...covering most of the
forecast area...with the highest threat in the Red River Valley
and eastward. Warm and humid conditions are expected again
tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

Monday evening will see cold front move east and northeast around
the 500 mb low to our west. Expecting a narrow line of
storms...some severe...with this feature. High degree of
instability right ahead of this wind shift and favorable low level
shear should favor a tornadic risk with the line of storms. HRRRX
shows this line of storms forming 22-23z right in the RRV and
moving east-northeast.

Afterwards...dry slot works in later Monday night into Tuesday
morning before wrap around moisture and showers move back into dvl
region Tuesday morning and spread east and southeast thru Tuesday
afternoon.  Showery weather continues into Wednesday for most areas
as upper low takes its time moving ENE thru Manitoba.

After this system departs, 500 mb flow goes a bit more zonal and our
persistent 500 mb trough re-appears near Vancouver Island for
Thu- Sat. Thus do expect some additional 500 mb short waves to
move through with a risk of showers and t-storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday evening)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

Strong to severe tstms expected across the DVL basin and
southeastern ND roughly 04-07z... and into the central Red River
Valley corridor roughly 05-09z. Widepsread MVFR cigs and vsbys
expected with scattered to numerous storms and isolated damaging
winds and large hail. Storms should persist into portions of
northwest and west central MN after 07z... with areas of MVFR
cigs expected to persist there through mid morning.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Gust
SHORT TERM...Knutsvig
LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...Gust

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
408 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-111300-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
408 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THREATS
INCLUDE HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES...WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 75
MPH...ALONG WITH A TORNADO THREAT. THERE IS ALSO A RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED HEAT INDEX
ACROSS THE REGION. HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100F WILL OCCUR ACROSS
A PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THERE IS ALSO A RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED LATE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AT
TIMES.

TG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1257 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 WSW CASSELTON         46.87N 97.31W
07/11/2016  M60.00 MPH       CASS               ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED BY MOBILE ANEMOMETER SET.

1246 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 ESE MAPLETON          46.87N 96.99W
07/11/2016  M64.00 MPH       CASS               ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED BY MOBILE ANEMOMETER SET.

&&

GGUST