Extreme Cold in Minnesota, December 18, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
321 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016

Records have fallen for December 17th minimum temperatures, and
again for December 18th. It's been -37 at ABR, shattering the 1951
record of -28 for December 18th. Even Watertown has fallen into the
-30 range, breaking the 1983 record of -24.

All this cold air should help freeze more of the Missour River/Lake
Oahe. Other than a 2 hour break from SCT-BKN clouds at PIR between
14 and 17Z Saturday, and now since 06Z, they had been stuck in
clouds for well over a day and a half. Wind shifts have made all the
difference, currently bringing the clouds to western Pottr and Sully
Counties.

The sfc high centered across NE and western KS early this morning,
extends a ridge across eastern SD. With winds of 3-10kts, wind chill
readings have fallen into the 30 to 50F range across most sites. It
will take until closer to 18Z before most sites rise above -25 wind
chill. Will keep the current Wind Chill Warning headlines in place
as is.

Warm air advection will increase this afternoon, as the sfc ridge
shifts into eastern MN and deeper low pressure slides northern
Alberta. Expect temps to rise into the single digits above zero
across much of the area today on increasing south-southwesterly
winds. These winds will be most pronounced over the Coteau region of
eastern SD, as 925 mb winds of 40 to 45 knots develop with a
strengthening inversion. Blowing snow will be a concern with these
winds. Will need to monitor obervations later tonight into early
Monday morning. Winds may temperarily decrease to around 20kts or
less Monday afternoon, before increasing again in the same area
Monday night.

Temperatures may top out in the 30s on Tuesday, a 60 degree change
from our current conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016

The models and gefs ensembles all indicate that the Tuesday
night/Wednesday short wave trough coming across the region may be
more significant than previously shown with better chances of snow.
With highs in the upper 20s to the mid 30s, there may be the
possibility of a mix in central sd. Thus, increased pops a little
with this system. Otherwise, the upper level flow continues from the
west to northwest through the period. The models show another short
wave trough coming across the region Thursday night through Friday
night. The GFS and EC both showed indications of light qpf with this
system along with a cold front dropping in behind Friday night.
Superblend had it dry at this time and suspect it will be adding
something in next time around if models continue to be consistent.
Temperatures from Wednesday through Friday look to be above normal
in the mid 20s to the mid 30s with a cool down for Saturday with
highs back into the teens and lower 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2016

MVFR cigs will remain along portions of the Missouri
River...affecting KPIR at times. These conditions should improve
late tonight. VFR conditions will prevail elsewhere overnight and
through the day Sunday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for
     SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST today for MNZ039-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Parkin

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1028 AM CST SAT DEC 17 2016

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-181630-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
1028 AM CST SAT DEC 17 2016 /928 AM MST SAT DEC 17 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 25 BELOW ZERO TO 45 BELOW
ZERO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL SETTLE IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

EXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 30 BELOW ZERO TO 45 BELOW
ZERO WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TMT