Thunderstorms forming from daytime heating and instability produced large hail and damaging winds over portions of western Upper Michigan during the afternoon of the 13th.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MQT wrote it up.
Thunderstorms forming from daytime heating and instability produced large hail and damaging winds over portions of western Upper Michigan during the afternoon of the 13th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 13, 12:51 PM EST, 9 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 151 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 526 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 Concerns in short term focus mainly on shra/tsra chcs this afternoon/evening and potential for svr storms. WV imagery and RAP analysis indicates a mid/upper level low over southern Manitoba beginning to lift ne into nw Ontario. Ahead of the low there is a wsw flow aloft and dry slotting into the Western Great Lakes which has resulted in mostly clear skies across Upper Mi early this morning. At sfc there is trough extending south from low over Srn Manitoba into nw MN and the eastern Dakotas. This boundary will be the focus for shra/tsra later this afternoon/evening as it moves into Upper Mi. Models hint that shortwave trough now over the Dakotas will edge toward Upper Mi late in day as mid-upper low lifts through Nrn Ontario. The timing of this shortwave will likely coincide with the sfc trough expected to move into the cwa during the afternoon. Daytime heating pushing temps into the mid to upper 80s along with dewpoints over the se half into the mid to upper 60s should result in MLCAPE values into the 1200-1700 J/Kg range per RAP and regional Canadian models. The heating/instability and approach of the trough should be enough to trigger isold/sct tsra, especially cntrl and east. The instability and 0-6km shear into the 40-50 knot range could support supercell development with the potential for large hail and damaging winds. The wind damage threat will also be enhanced by the potential to tap 650 mb winds around 50 knots. Model soundings indicate mixing under plenty of sunshine with the potential for sw winds to gust to 35 to 40 mph late morning into afternoon. T-storms will linger into the evening hours especially over the eastern counties where the sfc trough will provide focus for lifting. After the evening and loss of instability, expect just some lingering sct showers over mainly the wrn counties overnight as shortwave lobe and secondary sfc trough move in from the west. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 433 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 Deep mid level low currently centered along the Manitoba/Ontario border will open up as it lifts ne, and it will help develop a long wave trof over eastern Canada Thu thru Sat. This will bring a transition from recent above normal heights over the Upper Great Lakes to blo normal heights and cooler/much more comfortable weather into the first half the weekend. Next week, medium range guidance continues to indicate that the subtropical ridge will build across much of the CONUS with a closed high center forming over the central CONUS. Depending on where the center forms and on the amplitude of the ridge, the Upper Lakes may get into an extended period of humid, very warm to hot weather if the high shunts the westerlies farther n or the pattern could support occasional bouts of some cooling if the ridge is farther w or amplifies toward central Canada to allow nw flow to develop at times. Even in the latter scenario, a hot day or two will be possible given the building heat across the western Plains that would advect ne ahead of any shortwaves rounding the ridge. As for pcpn, most days of the long term will feature some potential of pcpn, though Thu and Sun look like the days with the best chc. Initially, pcpn will be tied to the system currently along the Manitoba/Ontario border and the subsequent trof development across eastern Canada. Next week, pcpn will be tied shortwaves rounding the building subtropical ridge over the central CONUS. Beginning Thu, Upper Great Lakes will be under the influence of the developing eastern Canadian trof. With a shortwave moving thru the area and associated deep layer forcing per q-vectors, expect sct to perhaps nmrs -shra. While the GFS has essentially no mlcape, the NAM has mlcapes up into the 750-900j/kg range over roughly the s half of the U.P., which would support some potential of thunder. Although the NAM often has a high bias with instability, it's probably worth including a schc thunder mention across the s in the aftn. Clouds/shra and caa will lead to a much cooler day with highs 10 to 20 degrees lower than today. Some shra will likely linger thru Thu night and even into Fri morning under rather pronounced low-level cyclonic flow. Then, expect a drying trend Fri aftn. Max temps Fri will range from the 60s near Lake Superior to the lower 70s inland. Over the weekend, the eastern Canada trof begins to lift n with a more zonally oriented flow developing across the northern CONUS. While shortwaves tracking along in this flow could generate isold -shra on Sat, there is better agreement for a stronger shortwave to swing thru northern Ontario in the retreating trof on Sun. Combined with potentially another shortwave in the zonal flow farther s per GFS/Canadian model, there should be a better chc of shra/tsra on Sun. With some amplification of the subtropical ridge into s central Canada Mon/Tue and a resulting more northwesterly flow into the Upper Lakes, weak sfc high pres should settle into the area, leading to what should be dry days or at least only a minor chc of pcpn. This will also help hold off the arrival of building heat over the Plains. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 150 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 Daytime heating/mixing will continue to support SW winds this afternoon, especially at IWD and SAW where gusts will exceed 30 kts. As a sfc trough approaches during the aftn, there could be some showers/TS. Given uncertainty with where/if the tsra would develop and the coverage TS were not mentioned in the TAF. Following the trough passage, expect gusty W winds especially at CMX will advect moister air into Upper MI. The result will be some MVFR cigs tonight into Thursday morning, especially at IWD and CMX with upslope westerly flow. && .MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 526 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 Tightening gradient ahead of an approaching low pressure trough over the Northern Plains will result in SW winds 15-25 knot range today across Lake Superior with even higher winds of 20 to 30 knots over western and north central Lake Superior. SW winds will diminish to 10 to 20 knots tonight then winds will turn from w to nw at 10-20 knots Thu-Thu night as another trough slides across Lake Superior. High pressure will briefly build across Lake Superior on Friday bringing calm conditions. The pressure gradient through the rest of the forecast period will be relatively weak, resulting in winds 20 knots or less. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && SHORT TERM...Voss LONG TERM...Rolfson AVIATION...JLB MARINE...Voss
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 506 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-141200- KEWEENAW-ONTONAGON-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-BARAGA-MARQUETTE-ALGER-LUCE- GOGEBIC-IRON-DICKINSON-MENOMINEE-DELTA-SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT- SOUTHERN HOUGHTON-NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT- 506 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 /406 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXCEPT FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...A FEW OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS AND THE PUBLIC ARE ENCOURAGED TO SEND REPORTS OF HAIL OR HIGH WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MARQUETTE BY PHONE... FACEBOOK OR TWITTER. LSZ162-240>251-263>267-141200- LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO GRAND PORTAGE MN BEYOND 5NM-SAXON HARBOR WI TO BLACK RIVER MI- BLACK RIVER TO ONTONAGON MI- ONTONAGON TO UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI- UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO EAGLE RIVER MI- EAGLE RIVER TO MANITOU ISLAND MI- MANITOU ISLAND TO POINT ISABELLE MI- POINT ISABELLE TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI- LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS-HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI- MARQUETTE TO MUNISING MI-MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS MI- GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT MI- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INCLUDING ISLE ROYALE NATIONAL PARK- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL TO MANITOU ISLAND MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER- LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE- LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF A LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO WHITEFISH POINT MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER- 506 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 /406 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LMZ221-248-250-141200- GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI- 5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE- 506 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ROLFSON
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1224 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1155 AM HEAVY RAIN MARENISCO 46.38N 89.70W
07/12/2016 U4.20 INCH GOGEBIC MI TRAINED SPOTTER
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&&
PETROThe Marquette radar (KMQT), 15 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:09 UTC.
3 hail, 2 strong wind, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
An NWS employee reported an 8-inch diameter tree limb down from strong winds just northeast of Negaunee.
There was a delayed report via social media of an estimated 8-inch diameter tree blown over onto power lines on Peavy Falls Road.
The observer near Watton reported three large trees down.
The observer near Jacobsville observed nickel-sized hail.
The observer seven miles northwest of Baraga measured one inch diameter hail.
There was a public report of penny-sized hail observed near Tapiola.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 649542, 649540, 649478, 649475, 649476, 649477.