A cluster of showers and thunderstorms developed in the afternoon near Louisville ahead of a cold front and upper level disturbance. These storms weakened and became disorganized across central Kentucky, before strengthening and morphing into a complex near Mount Vernon along Interstate 75.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A cluster of showers and thunderstorms developed in the afternoon near Louisville ahead of a cold front and upper level disturbance. These storms weakened and became disorganized across central Kentucky, before strengthening and morphing into a complex near Mount Vernon along Interstate 75. These storms raced off toward the southeast from Mount Vernon through a good portion of Harlan County. Multiple reports of wind damage were received, especially near London. Several thousand residents lost power as multiple trees, power lines, and business signs were blown down.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 7, 3:31 PM EST, 2 hours 17 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 431 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GRADUALLY MEANDERING ACROSS THE HUDSON AND JAMES BAY REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PASS BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WHILE AT THE SAME TIME HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AND STALLING OUT ACROSS THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND...BEFORE STARTING TO RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WHERE CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT...BUT SHOULD PEAK THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WHEN UPPER FORCING INCREASES. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS WHAT BECOMES OF THE CONVECTION APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WHAT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION CONTINUES...BUT RATHER DEEP MIXING IS OFFSETTING THIS SOMEWHAT AS WELL. SBCAPES AND MUCAPES ARE GENERALLY NOT MUCH HIGHER THAN 500 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND MOIST ADVECTION MAY REACH 1000 J/KG BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT WIND FIELDS ALOFT LEADS TO A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE WOULD POINT TOWARD THE CONVECTION APPROACHING THE AREA AFFECTING THE CWA IN A COUPLE OF TIER OF COUNTIES FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING. POPS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA AS A RESULT FOR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD. FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...LOCATIONS NEAR THE TN BORDER WILL HAVE THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. AS ALREADY NOTED THE HIGHEST POPS...LIKELY...WERE USED IN MOST LOCATIONS FOR THIS EVENING OR THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS. VALLEY FOG COULD BECOME A CONCERN ON SUNDAY NIGHT PENDING THE DEGREE OF CLEARING...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT. A NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY STARTING TO PARK ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF I 64 TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE TN BORDER. LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 431 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST SINCE YESTERDAY. AT THIS POINT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE...WITH A TYPICAL DECLINE WITH PASSING TIME. FOR DETAILS...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIP MAINLY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS LEAVES JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA. A LARGE BUT WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH ITS PASSING COINCIDING WITH AN INCREASED FLOW OFF OF THE GULF. THIS WILL PRESENT AN INCREASE IN POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A CORRESPONDING DROP IN POP. AFTER THIS...A LARGE UPPER LOW ROLLING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. THE TROUGH AND FRONT SHOULD APPROACH ON THURSDAY AND MOVE PAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS REPRESENTS ANOTHER PEAK IN POP. BEHIND THIS...MODELS SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTHWEST BRING US A DRIER AIR MASS ON FRIDAY. YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST AND DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BRINGS BACK ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO POSSIBLY CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO EAST KY BY THE 21Z TO 01Z PERIOD AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES BEGINNING DURING THAT PERIOD. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FAR NORTH AT KSYM...WHERE TSRA WAS INCLUDED. WE HAVE BROUGHT VIS OR CIGS DOWN TO MVFR DURING THE ANTICIPATED PERIOD OF CONVECTION WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST TO INCLUDE SYM...SJS AND JKL. DURING THE 6Z TO 18Z PERIOD...CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CONVECTION MAY PERSIST IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE AREA AND LEAD TO CONTINUED TO MVFR AT SJS...JKL AND LOZ. MAINLY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST 6 TO 8 HOURS OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25KT POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH AND BE MORE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...JP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 518 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-090030- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO... JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD... IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BROADHEAD... MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON... MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG... BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN... SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE... PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN... PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN... JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY... PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON 518 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. IN LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A SOMERSET TO LONDON TO HARLAN LINE...A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ARE THE MAIN THREATS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AT TIMES...FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO CALL IN ANY REPORTS OF HAIL...WIND DAMAGE...AND OR HEAVY RAIN THAT OCCUR THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. GREIF/JP
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
622 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
KYZ068-069-080-072245-
JACKSON-ROCKCASTLE-LAUREL-
622 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT JACKSON...ROCKCASTLE...AND
LAUREL COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM ED...
AT 621 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER BOONE...OR 11 MILES
NORTH OF MOUNT VERNON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...BOONE...WANETA...HAZEL PATCH...DONARO...KERBY KNOB...
PARROT...JEP HILL...JOHNETTA...WELLHOPE...LOAM...ORLANDO...COLLINGSWORTH...
LAKES...MACEDONIA...SAND SPRINGS...COOKSBURG...LAKE LINVILLE AND EGLON.
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
INTERSTATE 75 IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 47 AND
72.
KENTUCKY HIGHWAY 80 IN LAUREL COUNTY NEAR MILE MARKER 3.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 3748 8445 3747 8438 3750 8435 3754 8435
3753 8430 3752 8430 3751 8426 3752 8420
3756 8415 3757 8407 3749 8388 3748 8389
3743 8384 3715 8425 3744 8447
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 310DEG 34KT 3754 8435
JPThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 91 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:49 UTC.
7 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Citizens reported a couple of trees and limbs blown down from Conway to Mount Vernon.
The Kentucky State Police post in London along with trained spotters reported a swath of thunderstorm wind damage, extending from East Bernstadt to south of London. Multiple trees were blown down, causing various property damage. Additionally, several business signs were damaged in London.
Dispatch relayed reports of downed trees in Manchester and Peabody.
A citizen observed a tree blown down near Corbin.
Dispatch relayed multiple reports of downed trees from Cannon through Barbourville to Flat Lick.
A trained spotter observed a pine tree blown down on Highway 2011 near Stoney Fork. Citizens also reported multiple other trees downed near Arjay.
Law enforcement officials reported numerous downed trees, large limbs, and power lines in a swath from Bledsoe to Smith.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, May 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 623534, 623535, 623536, 623537, 623538, 623539, 623540.