Gusty winds developed during the late morning and afternoon hours ahead of an approaching cold front. Isolated wind damage was reported in Breathitt and Knott Counties during the early afternoon hours as strong upper level winds mixed down to the surface.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Gusty winds developed during the late morning and afternoon hours ahead of an approaching cold front. Isolated wind damage was reported in Breathitt and Knott Counties during the early afternoon hours as strong upper level winds mixed down to the surface. A line of thunderstorms then pushed into eastern Kentucky this evening, producing isolated damaging wind gusts west of and near Somerset.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 31, 9:52 AM EST, 2 hours 8 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1052 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 SHOWERS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT EAST THIS MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY STAVING OFF THE DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION. SUBSEQUENT HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS WEAKENING TREND BETTER. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE STILL HAS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS...BUT WOULD IMAGINE SOME THINNING WOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S STILL LOOK VERY REASONABLE. HAVE MAINLY FINE TUNED THESE DWINDLING SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER RESURGENCE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY LATER IN THE DAY...AS ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS DEVELOP OFF TO OUR WEST AND MOVE IN. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALSO OCCURRED OUT IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY WITH A STRONG 850 MB JET ALOFT IN PLACE. SUSTAINED WINDS ALONG THE BLUEGRASS BORDER COUNTIES HAVE BEEN IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH. AS SUCH...HAVE INCLUDED A BRIEF STATEMENT ADDRESSING THESE WINDS AS THEY SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL JET SUBSIDES. UPDATES WILL BE FORTHCOMING SHORTLY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN ABSENT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AS DIURNAL HEATING ENSUES. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL AND PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM FLEMINGSBURG TO EAST OF MONTICELLO...SLOWLY MAKING HEADWAY EAST INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE 30S. WILL SEE THESE RISE THIS MORNING AS UPSTREAM READINGS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO NORTHERN TENNESSEE SIT IN THE 40S. A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND NORTH THIS MORNING...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW WELL THIS MAIN MOISTURE BAND WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT WORKS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY ACT TO INHIBIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. FURTHER HINDERING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE THE CORE OF THIS MORNING/S UPPER FORCING TRACKING WELL NORTHWEST OF THE BLUEGRASS REGION...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN ADVECT IN BEFORE ALL UPPER SUPPORT IS LOST. THAT BEING SAID...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW HINTS OF A MINOR PERTURBATION OR TWO FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHICH MAY ACT TO SUSTAIN MORE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL FARTHER EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS. LACK OF LIFT WILL LIKELY SPELL A LULL IN PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S...OWING TO AN APPROACHING H85 THERMAL RIDGE IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. GUSTY WINDS...UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES...WILL BE IN PLACE BEGINNING AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL MIXING TAPS INTO HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT...WITH H85 LEVEL WINDS OF NEAR OR GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS. FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS SET TO MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS MID EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF NEAR 50 KNOTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH VECTOR ORIENTATION WILL LIKELY BE NEAR-PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THUS KEEPING CONVECTIVE MODE IN THE FORM OF LINEAR SEGMENTS. INSTABILITY MAY END UP BEING GREATER THAN THAT SUGGESTED BY NWP IF SUSTAINED LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLIER TODAY DOES FULLY MATERIALIZE...BUT A TYPICAL HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT DOES LOOK TO BE IN THE CARDS. THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT AS SHEAR SHOULD OVERWHELM BUOYANCY PROCESSES AND KEEP UPDRAFTS FROM REACHING HEIGHTS CONDUCIVE OF LARGE HAIL. LOW LEVEL HELICITY DOES SUPPORT SOME POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL ROTATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS...BUT DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN CONVECTION REMAINS ROOTED TO THE SURFACE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY MORNING...SCOURING OUT THE GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. AIRMASS WILL NOT COOL CONSIDERABLY AS THE PARENT UPPER IMPULSE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO LOW 70S SOUTH AND EAST NEARER THE VIRGINIA STATE LINE FOR THE FIRST DAY OF APRIL. WILL SEE LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS STORMS DEPART BY EARLY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 ...HARD FREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LATE NEXT WEEK... THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN VERY TRANSIENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH REPEATING ROUNDS OF COLD WEATHER EXPECTED. THIS WILL SET UP SEVERAL POTENTIAL HARD FREEZES AND FROST EVENTS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK RIGHT NOW...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS A BIT HIGHER THAN USUAL. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF QUIETLY AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING WITH THE COLD FRONT RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL SEND LOW TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 40S BY SATURDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING KENTUCKY. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TO PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST/FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE BIGGER IMPACT FROM THE FRONT WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THIS FRONT. 850MB TEMPS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE SITTING FROM -4C (SOUTHWEST) TO -8C (NORTHEAST). WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SETTING UP A HARD FREEZE FOR MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE LOW...SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW PLACES TO REACH THE LOWER 20S IF THINGS CAN ALIGN RIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA. THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO THE 50S AFTER THE VERY COLD START. HOWEVER...VALLEYS SHOULD DECOUPLE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SHELTERED VALLEYS AGAIN FALLING TO AROUND FREEZING. THIS WILL SET UP SOME PATCHY FROST FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING IN SUNDAY NIGHT...IT SHOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD FROST AS SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY RIDGES MAY STAY MIXED OVERNIGHT AND NOT DROP OFF AS EASILY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH MONDAY EVENING...AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE ANOTHER DIVE BEHIND THIS FRONT. THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THE SURGE OF COLD AIR IS STRONGER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WE WOULD LIKELY BE SETTING UP ANOTHER POTENTIAL HARD FREEZE FOR THE AREA AS TEMPS FALL WELL UNDER FREEZING AGAIN. GOOD NEWS IS WE MAY KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...KEEPING VALLEYS FROM DROPPING OFF AS LOW AND LIMITING FROST POTENTIAL. RETURN FLOW WILL KICK IN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...AGAIN WE MAY HAVE SOME FROST TO DEAL WITH TUESDAY NIGHT AS VALLEYS DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...THE STRONGEST OF THE OF THE COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA...WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT. A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT BY THURSDAY WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL SEND POTENTIALLY THE COLDEST WEATHER OF THE WEEK SOUTH INTO KENTUCKY. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES...WE MAY KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLY EVEN MIXING IN AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP. GIVEN THE SETUP...WENT WELL BELOW GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FOR TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL HARD FREEZE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 DIFFICULT FORECAST IN PLAY FOR ALL SITES AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FIRST OF THESE SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR LOZ/SME AROUND 1230-13Z AND PUSH EAST TOWARD SJS BY ~14-15Z. A LULL IN ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PREVAIL DURING THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS APPROACHES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL THIS LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES THIS EVENING. MAY VERY WELL SEE DEGRADATION TO MVFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE CONTINUED SLOW EROSION OF DRY AIR RAISES QUESTIONS AS TO HOW LIKELY THIS MAY BE. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL COME THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS A GOOD BET ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TOWARD MVFR BEFORE 12Z FRIDAY AS STRONGEST OF THE STORMS PUSH EAST. OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LLWS ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT PENDING TIMING OF STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GUSEMAN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1041 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-011100- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO... JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD... IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BROADHEAD... MOUNT VERNON...MCKOWSEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET... LONDON...MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN... WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE... CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINSVILLE... CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT... BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE... HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ... COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON 1041 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM FLEMINGSBURG TO CLAY CITY THROUGH NOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. ALTHOUGH A LESSER THREAT...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT. HARD FREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THURSDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSEMAN/KAS/GEOGERIAN
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1029 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 KYZ044-050-051-058-059-311600- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ESTILL-POWELL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO... JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...IRVINE... RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON 1029 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 ...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH NOON... SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM FLEMINGSBURG THROUGH CLAY CITY AS STRONG WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THOSE DRIVING ALONG NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED ROADS SHOULD USE CAUTION. GEOGERIAN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1111 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1035 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 S OWINGSVILLE 38.08N 83.76W
03/31/2016 M44 MPH BATH KY MESONET
&&
JCARICOPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1150 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1125 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 S OWINGSVILLE 38.08N 83.76W
03/31/2016 M47 MPH BATH KY MESONET
&&
JCARICOThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 41 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:13 UTC.
2 strong wind, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained spotter observed strong winds getting caught up underneath and blowing the roof off of the Lotts Creek Fire Department building.
Fire rescue reported two trees blown down southeast of Jackson as gusty winds increased during the early afternoon.
Dispatch reported multiple trees down from Beasley Road northwest of Nancy to the intersection of University Drive and Main Street in Somerset.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, March 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 617940, 617938, 617944.