An approaching cold front, combined with ample daytime instability and moisture, led to several lines of strong to severe thunderstorms across central Kentucky during the afternoon and early evening hours March 31st. The primary hazard was damaging wind.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LMK wrote it up.
An approaching cold front, combined with ample daytime instability and moisture, led to several lines of strong to severe thunderstorms across central Kentucky during the afternoon and early evening hours March 31st. The primary hazard was damaging wind. The hardest hit area was near Harned, Kentucky in Breckinridge County where a narrow path of 60 mph winds peeled off a portion of the local middle school and tossed around a few mobile homes. Two minor injuries occurred as a result.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 31, 10:48 AM CST, 1 hour 42 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1248 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... ...Mesoscale Forecast Update... Issued at 1120 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Convection spawned by the upper impulse over Arkansas is starting to go severe, and is moving into a more favorable environment. HRRR seems to have a good handle on this, and shows convection developing into a solid line that moves through the Pennyrile region by 18-19Z, I-65 corridor including Metro Louisville around 20Z, and then into the Bluegrass by 22-23Z. All severe threats remain on the table, but supercell potential is greatest to our south, in line with the SPC Enhanced risk area. Storms could continue into the evening, with the main severe potential remaining south of the Parkways as convection lifts NE out of Tennessee. Band of convection along the cold front will likely affect the northern CWA but is expected to be weaker. Issued at 955 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Main stratiform rain shield pushing steadily eastward, and should clear the Bluegrass region between 15-16Z. However, as the steady rain ends we are seeing wind gusts in the 40-50mph range, and even a couple reports of damage around Bowling Green. These gusts are sufficiently brief that we have opted to handle with a SPS. A break in the deep moisture has pushed into western KY/TN and will start to punch up the Wabash Valley into southwestern IN. A bit hesitant to call it a clear slot, as low clouds persist in the Mississippi Valley, but these clouds are shallow enough that it should allow for some destabilization later in the day. Small batch of convection north of Little Rock could well be the impulse to watch, so even in the face of run-to-run inconsistency from the hi- res models, still expect mid-afternoon convection over western Kentucky to push ENE across the area between 5pm EDT and midnight. No change to advertised SVR threats. .SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)... Issued at 352 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2016 ...Severe Weather Likely Today, Especially South of the Parkways... The synoptic regime early this morning features broad southwest flow over the Ohio Valley, ahead of a trough sliding into to the Central Plains. This trough will build into the Ohio Valley through the period, bringing showers and thunderstorms today into the early overnight hours. Confidence has increased a bit for severe weather this afternoon into this evening across portions of the region, mainly across south- central KY. However, the forecast still remains a bit complex. Deep isentropic lift within the warm conveyor belt of this system has led to an expansive area of rain and embedded thunderstorms this morning, stretching from the Gulf coast northeastward into the southern Great Lakes. Guidance is suggestive that this activity will begin to accelerate eastward this morning. Latest radar mosaic depicts a mesolow/MCV entering southern KY now, which will likely help accelerate the precipitation shield to the east as it lifts ENE. Given the deep, moist profiles and the enhancement of this mesolow, have upped pops to 100% in all locations this morning. The latest hi-res suite of guidance continues to support the idea that we will receive a break from the rain late this morning into early this afternoon. This break, coupled with perhaps a few peaks of sunshine, should allow temperatures to rise into the low to mid 70s. Southerly flow should help push dewpoints into the lower 60s, especially across southwest and south-central KY. As steeper lapse rates work in atop this moistening/warming low-level airmass, anywhere from 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE should build by the mid afternoon. A powerful 150+ upper-level jet streak will nose into portions of the TN Valley today. The exit region should overspread a pre- frontal trough near the MS River this afternoon, which should lead to thunderstorm development across portions of west-central TN. Deep- layer shear profiles, jet streak orientation, and meager low-level convergence suggest this activity will likely be in the form of discrete supercells. This activity will quickly push northeast into portions of south-central KY late this afternoon into early this evening. Large hail will be the main threat, but damaging winds will be possible with bowing segments given the kinematics in the low- levels. Additionally, backed surface flow ahead of the prefrontal trough will lead to enlarged hodographs, so an isolated tornado or two will be possible as well. Confidence in severe weather is highest across south-central KY, with slightly lower confidence across north-central KY and southern IN (including the Louisville metro). The hi-res deterministic models and ensembles disagree on just how far north storms will develop along the pre-frontal trough, thus there is some uncertainty on the northern extent of the threat. There will also be the risk of a few severe storms late this evening along the synoptic cold front (especially over southern IN). However, slower timing with the front will likely limit instability by the time the boundary slides through the rest of the region, especially as it it gets into east- central KY late tonight. Keep up to date on the latest forecast through the day today as trends in the thermodynamic environment are better ascertained, which will lead to higher confidence and detail in the forecast. The cold front will push through tonight, ending all precipitation and bringing slightly cooler weather for Friday. Highs will be seasonal, in the low to mid 60s. .LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)... Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2016 The synoptic regime at the start of the long term period will feature a broad, positively-tilted trough across much of the eastern CONUS. This trough will deamplify by the end of this weekend, but additional PV anomalies rounding the trough will help to amplify it back into the Ohio Valley at times through early next week. This pattern will bring brief warm ups and cool downs as each of these disturbances swings through, along with some light precipitation chances. A strong PV anomaly diving through the southern Great Lakes will induce a surface low across northern OH/western NY on Saturday. Steep lapse rates aloft may lead to some instability showers Saturday afternoon that may get close to the northern Bluegrass. However, the majority of guidance keeps them just out of the NE CWA, so will leave the forecast dry for now. Forecast soundings suggest that we will mix into pretty high momentum air (40 knots or so) on Saturday afternoon, so gusts of 30-40mph will be possible especially across the northern Bluegrass region. High pressure will build in Saturday night. Large-scale subsidence should lead to clear skies and light winds, which could set the stage for frost formation early Sunday morning. Will introduce patchy frost wording into the forecast. Another area of low pressure will approach Monday, bringing the next decent shot for precipitation. Temperatures should warm nicely into the 60s ahead of the associated cold front, before dropping into the 50s on Tuesday on the backside. By the middle to end of next week, the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to suggest an anomalous trough digging into the eastern CONUS. This will drive an Arctic front through the Ohio Valley Wednesday, with rather chilly temperatures spilling in behind it on Thursday. In fact, profiles suggest that by Thursday afternoon (after the valid time of this forecast), we may be cold enough for some wet snow to mix in. Certainly not what many people want to hear this time of year, but it is something we will continue to monitor through the upcoming week. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)... Updated at 1246 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2016 A cold front will continue to approach the region today and move through tonight. The morning's rain continues to push off to the east and will be east of LEX by TAF issuance time. Focus then turns to the potential for storms this afternoon. Looking at the most recent model runs and current storm development, it looks like storms will move in an hour or two earlier than previously forecast, so moved up the time for the TS this afternoon. Scattered storms are possible this afternoon and early evening. There will then be another round of rain with maybe some storms moving through with the front later in the evening. Right now it looks like the afternoon activity will be the strongest with the potential for the biggest impact if a storm moves across the terminal. All precipitation should move out through the overnight hours. Ceilings will improve to VFR at LEX after the rain moves out and have already improved at BWG and SDF. Mainly VFR conditions are expected except in any storms. Winds will continue to be gusty out of the south today. They will relax and shift to west-northwesterly tonight in the wake of the front. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && Update.........RAS Short Term.....KJD Long Term......KJD Aviation.......EER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 1146 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082-011600- ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON- FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-OHIO-GRAYSON-HARDIN-BULLITT- OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-SHELBY-FRANKLIN-SPENCER-ANDERSON-WOODFORD- FAYETTE-BOURBON-NICHOLAS-NELSON-MERCER-JESSAMINE-LARUE-MARION-BOYLE- GARRARD-MADISON-BUTLER-EDMONSON-HART-GREEN-TAYLOR-CASEY-LINCOLN- LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-METCALFE-ADAIR-RUSSELL- CUMBERLAND-CLINTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON... JASPER...ENGLISH...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY... JEFFERSONVILLE...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG... BRANDENBURG...HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN... SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...MILTON... NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA... TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS... CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE... WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER... RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...HORSE CAVE...GREENSBURG... CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN... FRANKLIN...PROVIDENCE...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE... EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY 1146 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 /1046 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE THREAT EXISTS EVERYWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND KENTUCKY...THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KD/RAS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
958 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0838 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 ENE PLUM SPRINGS 37.03N 86.35W
03/31/2016 WARREN KY TRAINED SPOTTER
LARGE WILLOW TREE BLOWN OVER. LOCAL ASOS HAD
A GUST OF 52 MPH AT 8:38 ET.
&&
KDWPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1048 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1020 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ESE MILLERSBURG 38.28N 84.10W
03/31/2016 M51 MPH NICHOLAS KY MESONET
MEASURED AT THE NICHOLAS COUNTY KENTUCKY
MESONET SITE.
&&
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEMPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1055 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1053 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 NW REDHOUSE 37.86N 84.31W
03/31/2016 MADISON KY EMERGENCY MNGR
LARGE BRADFORD PEAR TREE LIMBS DOWN. WINDS
MEASURED 45-50 MPH AT THE TIME.
&&
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEMPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1103 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1055 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ESE MILLERSBURG 38.28N 84.10W
03/31/2016 M54 MPH NICHOLAS KY MESONET
MEASURED AT THE NICHOLAS COUNTY KENTUCKY
MESONET SITE.
&&
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEMPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1106 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1050 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NNW WINCHESTER 38.04N 84.20W
03/31/2016 M52 MPH CLARK KY MESONET
MEASURED AT THE CLARK COUNTY KENTUCKY
MESONET SITE.
&&
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEMPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1137 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1021 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 E VERSAILLES 38.04N 84.60W
03/31/2016 M51 MPH FAYETTE KY ASOS
MEASURED AT THE KLEX ASOS.
&&
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEMThe Ft Campbell radar (KHPX), 79 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:31 UTC.
29 thunderstorm wind, 2 lightning. Local standard time, as filed.
A department of highways official reported several trees down in the area due to severe thunderstorm winds.
Trees were reported down across Highway 1700 near Quisenberry Road.
An amateur radio operator reported roof damage at Breckinridge County Middle School and damage to a nearby gas station. There were also reports of structural damage to buildings on Fairgrounds Road.
An amateur radio operator reported trailers flipped over at Nancy Butler Trailer Park.
A large tree limb fell down on Aristides Drive.
Local law enforcement reported power lines down in the area.
Power lines were reported down in Shepherdsville.
Bleachers and goal posts were blown over due to severe thunderstorm winds at Male High School.
A broadcast meteorologist relayed a report of a tree down on a mobile home on Cane Run Road.
Power lines were reported down on Palatka Road near Manslick Road in the Iroquois Park area.
Power lines were reported down on Taylor Boulevard.
A large tree was blown down on Duncan Street.
An outbuilding was damaged near Salt River Electric on Highway 44.
Power lines were reported down between Shepherdsville and Mount Washington.
Trees were uprooted on Midland Lane.
A pole barn was blown down on Highway 44, 1 mile from Alpar Lane.
An off-duty NWS employee reported trees down on Stony Brook Road.
Large trees were downed across Beargrass Creek.
Trees were reported down across the area due to severe thunderstorm winds.
Trees were reported down across the county.
An off-duty NWS employee reported power poles snapped and power lines down near Interstate 71 from severe winds. There were also reports of tree damage along Radcliffe Road.
A trained spotter reported flag poles down in the far northeastern part of Spencer County.
A tree fell down on a vehicle on Smallhouse Road.
Several trees were reported down in the area due to severe thunderstorm winds.
Trees were reported down due to severe thunderstorm winds.
Trees were reported down due to severe thunderstorm winds.
The Barren County emergency manager reported a transformer blew after a lightning strike at north Race and West Front streets.
The Barren County emergency manager reported trees down near Stovall Road.
The Barren County emergency manager reported trees down in northern Barren County near the Hart County line.
The Harrison County emergency manager reported power lines down due to severe thunderstorm winds.
Local law enforcement reported trees down and a few power lines down across Adair County.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, March 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 622804, 622805, 622807, 622808, 622809, 622810, 622811, 622813, 622815, 622817, 622818, 622819, 622821, 622823, 622827, 622839, 622826, 622828, 622838, 622837, 622836, 622835, 622825, 622834, 622833, 622830, 622802, 622803, 622832, 622829, 622831.