A slow-moving area of widespread showers and thunderstorms dumped several inches of rain during the morning. The storms occurred in a warm and very humid air mass in the vicinity of outflow boundaries from previous storms.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A slow-moving area of widespread showers and thunderstorms dumped several inches of rain during the morning. The storms occurred in a warm and very humid air mass in the vicinity of outflow boundaries from previous storms. Pockets of flash flooding were reported in northwest Kentucky.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 12, 5:06 AM CST, 4 hours 17 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Paducah KY 606 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 602 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2016 Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2016 Average confidence continues in the long term due to slight model differences. The period starts out with our CWA on the southern periphery of decent mid level flow with a general weakness in the flow from our area southward. By the end of the period, with the passage of several upper level disturbances and the flow aloft becoming more west northwest, the better flow sags southward putting us in a more active regime. The evolution of this pattern in the short term will ultimately determine coverage and timing of precipitation. Early this morning as a weak/broad H5 trough drifts across the area scattered convection is possible generally over the southeast half of our CWA where moisture will be deepest and lapse rates are more favorable. By midday the approach and passage of a short wave should cause convection to develop over all but the far western sections of our CWA. In the wake of the short wave, precipitation chances should diminish this afternoon from west to east. Tonight should be dry due to lack of deep moisture and weak H5 ridging. Wednesday precipitation chances should be limited to the northern half of our CWA with the passage of yet another short wave across that area. Wednesday night into Thursday precipitation chances increase from the north and west with the approach of a cold front dropping southeast out of the plains. Thursday night models develop a wave on the front over southeast Missouri in response to an upstream short wave so the better chances should be in that same area. Temperatures will remain within a couple of degrees of normal through the period. This combined with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s will produce afternoon heat indices over parts of the area around 100 today, Wednesday, Thursday, and next Monday with mid 90s common Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2016 Models show a cold front drifting south into our region on Friday, meandering across southern portions of the PAH forecast area Friday night, and lifting back north Saturday into Saturday night. With the front in our vicinity, we should have a little better chances of showers and thunderstorms during this time period. Went with good chances area wide for Friday into Saturday, with pops dropping off a little Saturday night with loss of heating. Did not go with higher pops yet due to some uncertainty with the timing of the frontal movement/passage. Numerical guidance indicates temperatures will drop off several degrees, especially for our northern counties, with dew points lowering a little also. This could also be affected with a change in the timing of the front. The respite from the heat will be short lived, with temperatures and dew points climbing back upward as the front lifts north. High temperatures will climb back to around 90 degrees by Monday. ECMWF and GFS show wave after waver of upper level disturbances moving across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys Sunday into the early part of the week, This will keep the on and off chances of showers and storms in the forecast. Exact timing is near impossible, so kept possibilities in the chance category, though by Sunday night and Monday, models agree the better focus for convection will be across our northeast counties. Actually went precipitation free for a portion of our southeast Missouri counties for Monday. && .AVIATION... Issued at 606 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2016 With the exception of possible MVFR cigs/vsbys in SHRA/TSRA, VFR conditions should prevail at all sites through the period. South to southeast winds AOB 10 knots early will gust up to 15-18 knots this afternoon, then drop back off after 00Z. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP LONG TERM...RST
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-131000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OR PART OF THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS TODAY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OR PART OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND NEXT MONDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. JP/RST
The Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 74 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 15:23 UTC.
3 flash flood, 2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Several homes were flooded in Sebree. Emergency management personnel reported high water on streets.
Street flooding was reported in urban areas of Owensboro and on the southwest side of the city. Water was over Highway 140 in Utica.
Flowing water damaged a culvert on a county road near Beech Grove. Parts of State Roads 136 West, 56 North, 250, and 140 were under water. The Kentucky mesonet site several miles northwest of Calhoun measured 5.18 inches during the morning.
A few state roads were closed, including Highways 812, 1557, and 2247.
Portions of a few county roads were closed, and several other county roads were covered by water.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 646761, 646758, 646763, 646767, 646765.