Cold in Kentucky, January 11, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
627 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 316 AM EST Mon Jan 11 2016

High pressure over the southeast United States will keep us dry
through this evening. A fair amount of sunshine and temperatures
climbing to around or just slightly above the freezing mark should
help to take care of some of the icy patches on area roadways. Not
that any clear roads will last for very long...

A weak clipper will combine with a weak low over the Midwest this
evening to become a single, stronger center of low pressure that
will cross the Great Lakes tonight and swing a cold front through
the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning. Snow will develop ahead of this
system with increasing isentropic lift tonight, moving into southern
Indiana late. A main band of snow, with embedded stronger bands, is
then expected to develop coincident with the cold front as it
crosses central Kentucky on Tuesday.

The best chance for the most intense snow showers/squalls will be to
our north in the Great Lakes region on the cyclonic shear side of
the strongest mid and upper level winds and closer to the surface
low and upper height anomalies. Still, a 5H speed max will move
overhead Tuesday morning as the surface front moves through.
Vertical theta-e profiles suggest some conditional symmetric
instability along with weak frontogenesis and shallow but
significant moisture, though EPV stays largely positive. The 4km NAM
actually shows some banding in its snowfall accumulation progs. It
does appear that some heavier showers/bands of snow could set up
especially Tuesday morning across north central Kentucky into the
Blue Grass.

Snowfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches appear attainable from southern
Indiana through north central Kentucky to the Blue Grass, with
localized amounts of 4 inches possible.

In addition to the snow, winds will pick up dramatically and may
gust to 30 or 35 mph...especially across southern Indiana and in the
heavier showers.

After collaboration with surrounding offices, we will let the day
shift put the finishing touches on the forecast and issue any
necessary headlines. Had a headline been issued on this shift, it
likely would have been along and north of a line from Hawesville to
Hodgenville to Liberty...though it's difficult to decide just how
far south to go with it.

Will go for high temperatures Tuesday ranging from the upper 20s in
southern Indiana to the upper 30s near the Tennessee line, but with
the clouds, showers, and FROPA, it's a difficult temp forecast.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 323 AM EST Mon Jan 11 2016

High pressure cruising from the Missouri Valley to the southeast
Atlantic coast will keep us dry through mid week, with gradually
warming temperatures after a very cold night Tuesday night. With
fresh snowcover Tuesday night, went below guidance average and will
take lows into the single digits from southern Indiana through the
Blue Grass, and low-mid teens elsewhere. However, by the end of the
work week we should see afternoon temperatures around 50 once again.

Thursday night low pressure over the Plains will organize and strike
off to the northeast. Though there are significant differences among
the models, the general gist is that we should be on the warm side
of the system at least to end the work week, then maybe get into
some cooler air over the weekend. The models have really been
struggling with the Thursday through Sunday period lately given the
active split flow, and forecast confidence is lower than average for
this time period.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1124 AM EST Mon Jan 11 2016

Cold and VFR through the day and most of the upcoming night as
arctic high pressure controls the region. Another arctic front and
scattered to numerous snow showers will move into SDF/LEX around
sunrise on Tuesday.

SW winds will increase in magnitude today, generally between 7 and
12 mph. A few mid and upper clouds are expected.

Winds continue to increase in strength this evening ahead of the
next approaching system. Look for SW at 10 to 15, with some gusts up
around 25 mph. Will also see a Bkn/Ovc mid deck work into the area
around 4 K feet. Snow showers and at least VFR/MVFR ceilings start
just before dawn on Tuesday at SDF. After cold frontal passage,
winds will gust up around 35 mph.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........13
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........BJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
349 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-120900-
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON-
FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-OHIO-GRAYSON-HARDIN-BULLITT-
OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-SHELBY-FRANKLIN-SPENCER-ANDERSON-WOODFORD-
FAYETTE-BOURBON-NICHOLAS-NELSON-MERCER-JESSAMINE-LARUE-MARION-BOYLE-
GARRARD-MADISON-BUTLER-EDMONSON-HART-GREEN-TAYLOR-CASEY-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-METCALFE-ADAIR-RUSSELL-
CUMBERLAND-CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...ORLEANS...FRENCH LICK...SALEM...
SCOTTSBURG...AUSTIN...MADISON...JASPER...HUNTINGBURG...BROWNSTOWN...
MILLTOWN...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...CLARKSVILLE...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...
HARDINSBURG...IRVINGTON...CLOVERPORT...BRANDENBURG...MULDRAUGH...
BEAVER DAM...HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...RADCLIFF...
FORT KNOX...MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...HILLVIEW...BROOKS...
LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BUCKNER...CRESTWOOD...PEWEE VALLEY...
BEDFORD...MILTON...EMINENCE...NEW CASTLE...PLEASUREVILLE...
CAMPBELLSBURG...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...
TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...
CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...
WILMORE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...BEREA...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...
HORSE CAVE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...
STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...PROVIDENCE...
SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...
RUSSELL SPRINGS...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
349 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016 /249 AM CST MON JAN 11 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND CROSS THE OHIO RIVER TOWARDS DAWN. SOME ACCUMULATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY. SOME
OF THE SHOWERS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY, WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING IN THE MORNING. IN
ADDITION TO THE SNOW, WEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 30 OR 35
MPH...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN INDIANA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT SNOW, WINDS, AND ROAD CONDITIONS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
401 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>025-027>043-045>049-053>057-
065>067-111800-
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON-
FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-GRAYSON-HARDIN-BULLITT-
OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-SHELBY-FRANKLIN-SPENCER-ANDERSON-WOODFORD-
FAYETTE-BOURBON-NICHOLAS-NELSON-MERCER-JESSAMINE-LARUE-MARION-
BOYLE-GARRARD-MADISON-TAYLOR-CASEY-LINCOLN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...ORLEANS...FRENCH LICK...SALEM...
SCOTTSBURG...AUSTIN...MADISON...JASPER...HUNTINGBURG...
BROWNSTOWN...MILLTOWN...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...
NEW ALBANY...JEFFERSONVILLE...CLARKSVILLE...LEWISPORT...
HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...IRVINGTON...CLOVERPORT...BRANDENBURG...
MULDRAUGH...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...RADCLIFF...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...HILLVIEW...BROOKS...
LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BUCKNER...CRESTWOOD...PEWEE VALLEY...
BEDFORD...MILTON...EMINENCE...NEW CASTLE...PLEASUREVILLE...
CAMPBELLSBURG...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...
LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...
HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WILMORE...WINCHESTER...
HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...BEREA...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD
401 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016 /301 AM CST MON JAN 11 2016/

SNOW AND WIND TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTHERN
INDIANA...NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND THE KENTUCKY BLUE GRASS.

THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN
SOUTHERN INDIANA...CROSS THE OHIO RIVER AROUND OR JUST BEFORE
DAWN TUESDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON.

ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WHERE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
PERSIST.

THE SNOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WEST WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING INTO
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE
NORTHERN BLUE GRASS. EVEN WITH JUST LIGHT SNOW, WINDS OF THIS
STRENGTH WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW AND WILL ADD TO TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES.

STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES.

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