Hail and Damaging Wind in Kansas, October 5 to 6, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
806 PM CDT Wed Oct 5 2016

.Update...
Issued at 759 PM CDT WED OCT 5 2016

Have shifted the area of initial convective development further north
in response to the northward shift of stronger h8 moisture
convergence. 12z/18z short range models depict the nose of the low
level jet as being further north. RAP trends support this analysis
and latest HRRR trending this way as well. And the proof in the
pudding is in the isolated convection which is popping up along a
line from STJ to CDJ to near IRK. Eventually the convection will fill
in and shift southeast overnight.

Further down the road am a little concerned on the extent of
convection during both the morning and afternoon hours. May be a
little too wet. Will see what the 00z NAM looks like before making
any significant changes.

&&

.Discussion...
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED OCT 5 2016

...Tonight...
The weak front that moved through the area this morning will begin to
lift into northern MO as a southwest-northeast oriented warm front
this evening. WAA has already increased and will be strong enough to
create some lift in conjunction with the front and increase storm
chances from east-central KS up to northeast MO and southward
starting this afternoon. The warm front will stall out along this
line and create multiple clusters of storms on the southern side in
the overnight hours. The LLJ ramps up somewhat parallel to the front
after 9 pm and will help produce convection. Instability and shear
parameters show the possibility of producing some strong to severe
weather. Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats. A decent
amount of moisture will also be present with these storms due to the
LLJ; therefore, some storms may produce locally heavy rainfall. These
showers and storms will linger into the morning hours until the LLJ
dies down.

...Tomorrow...
A few rounds of storms are possible tomorrow as the upper level
trough and surface low approach the area. Strong WAA, dew point
temperatures in the upper 60s, and CAPE values in the 2000-3000 J/kg
range will aid in the development of storms. The surface low will
move northeast from central KS into central IA. The location of the
surface low will also provide a rough location for the best chance
of severe weather tomorrow afternoon and evening. Northwest MO and
northeast KS are in an enhanced risk. As previously mentioned,
instability values will reach up to around 3000 J/kg, while 0-6 km
shear values will be between 50 and 60 kts. The primary threats being
damaging winds and hail, but we cannot rule out a few isolated
tornadoes due to helicity values up to 300 m2/s2 and 0-1 km shear
exceeding 25 kts. The area from Olathe to Kirksville is in a slight
risk with damaging winds and hail being the primary threats. Showers
and storms will hang around until Friday morning when the cold front
finally moves through the area.

...Fri-Sun...
Much calmer and cooler weather is expected for the weekend as a
surface high pressure moves in behind the cold front. Highs will
begin in the low 60s Friday and will slowly increase to the low 70s
by Sunday.

...Mon-Wed...
Temperatures will remain in the 70s for the beginning of next week
but storm chances return. An upper level trough will send a few pulses
of energy our way Monday through Wednesday, but right now chances for
widespread showers and storms appear low.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT WED OCT 5 2016

Still expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms to form by mid
evening and affect all but northwest MO overnight. Believe MVFR fog
and ceilings will form during the pre-dawn hours over northwest into
west central and northeast MO. These should lift/mix out by mid
morning. Much debate on how much morning convection there will be.
Most models favor going with less convection and mainly impacting
west central MO and east central KS south of the KC area. Otherwise,
will have to wait until the cold front and its associated
strong/severe storms come through after 00z Friday.

In addition, expect strong and gusty southerly winds for the
afternoon hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Update...MJ
Discussion...Grana
Aviation...MJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
440 AM CDT WED OCT 5 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-060945-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
440 AM CDT WED OCT 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO
 TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL UP TO TO QUARTER
 SIZE. OTHERWISE SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS 30 TO 50 MPH, AND FREQUENT
 LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

 SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND
 NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FOR
 LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

 WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, MINOR
 FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
 EXPECTED.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO