Weak low pressure resided north of the state during the day, eventually meandering eastward through central and southern Minnesota. The trailing cold front moved across the northwest third of the state during the morning and afternoon, initiating a number of storms.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DMX wrote it up.
Weak low pressure resided north of the state during the day, eventually meandering eastward through central and southern Minnesota. The trailing cold front moved across the northwest third of the state during the morning and afternoon, initiating a number of storms. The storms, while sub-severe, did produce heavy rainfall in a few locations, including the Fort Dodge area where as much as 3.50 inches was reported.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Des Moines, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 13, 11:34 AM CST, 26 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1234 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016 .SHORT TERM.../Today/ Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016 Thunderstorm chances and unseasonably warm is the story in the short term. A warm front extends from near Estherville to Des Moines to Centerville. At 3 AM, East of this front temperatures are in the 60s and to the West of the front in the warm sector temperatures remain in the 70s with dewpoints near 70 degrees. Further to the Northwest, a weak cold front is beginning to move into Northwest Iowa. This cold front will be forced South today aided by a shortwave trough ejecting into the Central Plains. Scattered thunderstorms will develop along and behind the front as it moves through Iowa. The airmass ahead of the front remains moist with precipitable water values progged near 1.5 inches. 0-6 km shear is very meager. Aided by daytime heating, forecast models depict downdraft CAPE near 1500 j/kg this afternoon and early evening which would favor strong downdrafts and damaging outflow winds. Localized heavy rain and flooding will also be possible near the stronger thunderstorms and where any thunderstorms travel over the same areas. Cloud cover and rainfall will help to take the edge off the heat. However, highs are still expected to reach near 90 which is still about 10 degrees above normal. The existing airmass will support heat index values in the mid and upper 90s today. .LONG TERM.../Tonight through Sunday/ Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016 The primary concern will be precipitation trends to start the work week, especially late Tuesday. At onset the fairly diffuse frontal boundary currently extending from Nebraska into Minnesota will be somewhere through central Iowa at 00z. Expect the weak convergence and potentially outflow from any remnant daytime convection to continue to develop scattered storms into the evening before waning with the loss of heating. Shear will again be weak so expect much of this convection to be below severe limits. The convection will likely persist in some form overnight with the passage of the H85/H7 ridge increasing warm advection into the early morning hours. Current western CONUS long wave trough will weaken with time as it reaches the Plains by Tuesday morning, but potent short wave/PV anomaly should still be on the door step of the Missouri River by 18z with an unseasonal amount of synoptic scale forcing for mid June spreading convection through the Siouxland area. Farther to the south MLCapes of around 3k j/kg are expected to push into at least southwest Iowa with minimal inhibition. The low level winds and associated convergence will be somewhat weak, but the broad diffluence and DPVA should overcome any of these deficiencies and develop fairly strong convection into Iowa around 00z, plus or minus a few hours. Deep shear is only moderate at best, but should be sufficient for organized convection and supercells considering the amount of instability so large hail and damaging winds are certainly possible. Low level winds and SRH are not too strong, and LCLs seems a bit high, but the degree of instability and 0-3km component could still produce a few tornadoes, especially if residual boundaries from earlier convection can enhance the low level shear and SRH so cannot argue at all with SPC Enhanced Day 2 outlook. The deep forcing couplet should be east of the forecast area by 12z Wednesday leading to dry conditions through the end of the week as an upper level ridge begins to build into the Missouri Valley. The ridge placement will keep us from getting too warm and humid however with a steady Great Lakes surface high keeping our surface trajectories unfavorable for extreme heat or moisture return. A trough will enter the Pacific Northwest over the weekend and eventually cross the US/Canadian border into early next week lowering heights through the northern Plains. This is more in line with previous GFS solutions and will gradually push a front into Iowa northwest to southeast late in the weekend and early next week. The degree of synoptic scale forcing will be fairly strong with decent convergence so expect a period of convection with the only questions when and how strong. If the frontal passage phased with peak heating, possibly late Sunday, the instability should become great enough with low level return flow starting late Saturday Night for some severe weather even though the deep shear is marginal ahead of the front. && .AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon/ Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016 Scattered storms across the north in vicinity of a boundary that will drop south through the state this afternoon into tonight. This will allow for chances of storms at all the taf sites through mid evening. Cloud cover to increase with additional chances for storms into Tuesday. Uncertainty in timing/placement for activity Tuesday given it will depend somewhat on how the activity plays out today. Handled with mainly vcsh in the northern taf sites for Tuesday where the best chance for precip is through the morning hours. && .DMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None. && SHORT TERM...Angle LONG TERM...Small AVIATION...Beerends
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 454 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016 IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075- 081>086-092>097-141100- EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO- POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN- WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE- BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER- POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION- CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE- APPANOOSE-DAVIS- 454 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS IF ANYTHING OCCURRED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE BETTER DETERMINED IN THE COMING DAYS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SMALL
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1148 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016
IAZ006-007-016-017-131745-
WORTH IA-CERRO GORDO IA-WINNEBAGO IA-HANCOCK IA-
1148 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016
...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN IOWA...
AT 1146 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF LAKE MILLS
TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CLEAR LAKE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. THIS MAY RESULT IN RENEWED LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER AND
STREAM RISES IN AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW DAYS AGO.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MASON CITY...FOREST CITY...NORTHWOOD...LAKE MILLS...MANLY...EMMONS...
CLEAR LAKE...RICE LAKE...MASON CITY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...VENTURA...
PLYMOUTH...FERTILE...LELAND...KENSETT...GRAFTON...HANLONTOWN...
JOICE...ROCK FALLS...SCARVILLE AND BOLAN.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 4321 9302 4306 9336 4339 9379 4350 9364
4350 9303
TIME...MOT...LOC 1646Z 236DEG 19KT 4340 9367 4306 9332
SKOWThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
CoCoRaHS observer reported heavy rainfall of 3.50 inches storm total through roughly 3pm. Times radar estimated.
Trained spotter reported heavy rainfall of 2.25 inches in 45 minutes. Not storm total. Not major issues noted.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Iowa in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Iowa, June 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 633722, 633721.