Numerous showers and thunderstorms developed during the overnight and early morning hours on June 13th across East Texas, near and east of a weakening upper level closed low and attendant trough over Central Texas. Showers and thunderstorms containing very heavy rainfall developed along a line from Waco to Mexia, Palestine, and Jacksonville, Texas, along a stationary surface boundary which was…
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SHV wrote it up.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms developed during the overnight and early morning hours on June 13th across East Texas, near and east of a weakening upper level closed low and attendant trough over Central Texas. Showers and thunderstorms containing very heavy rainfall developed along a line from Waco to Mexia, Palestine, and Jacksonville, Texas, along a stationary surface boundary which was positioned on the south and east side of the weak closed low, resulting in showers and thunderstorms that repeatedly trained over the same areas. Given these surface and upper level features in place, in addition to daily record precipitable water values sampled in the early morning weather balloon data from Shreveport, LA, very heavy rainfall with rain rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour fell over these areas, resulting in widespread flash flooding between Waco and Jacksonville. This affected much of northern and central Cherokee County in East Texas, with numerous reports of roads closed due to flash flooding, and water entering businesses near Rusk. Widespread rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches fell within two to three hours time over these areas, before the showers and thunderstorms weakened by mid-morning and shifted east into extreme Eastern Texas and Northcentral Louisiana.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Shreveport, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 13, 5:59 AM CST, 46 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 659 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016 .AVIATION... For the 13/12Z TAFS...Ceilings range widely this morning and are generally IFR/MVFR where rain is occurring while locations outside of convection are holding on to VFR conditions for now. Expect the lower ceilings to fill in across all sites later this morning as showers and thunderstorms increase in response to an upper level disturbance shifting through the region. The rain and low clouds will keep MVFR/IFR conditions prevailing throughout the morning with some improvement in the afternoon with scattered convection still possible. Southerly winds will be in the 5-10 kt range for much of the day with higher speeds and gusts occurring in heavy showers and stronger storms. Convection should gradually diminish with the loss of heating and as the upper disturbance transitions farther east. Lower ceilings and possibly some fog will redevelop toward to end of the TAF period, especially in rain-soaked areas. /19/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016/ DISCUSSION... The UA trough that was across the Red River Valley/SW OK this time yesterday has since drifted to across East OK early this morning, and has aided in sustaining a gradually waning MCS that was noted across portions of East TX and nearing Deep East TX as of 08Z. However just because the MCS has a waned a bit, it does not rule out occasional lightning and intermittent moderate rainfall. The HRRR solution appears to have a decent handle on the current precip situation and as such, shows the MCS continuing to dwindle, though still present whilst shifting ESE to across East TX and deep East TX. Additional development is shown to occur across most of the CWA /though the central and Eastern zones are most favored/ shortly after sunrise, with the onset of daytime destabilization. Although the UA trough will be lingering North of the region, it is not overly strong and thus the 0-6 km bulk shear is not very impressive. Progged soundings indicating weak lapse rates further validates that the potential for severe storms will be low/nil, but as was seen last night, one or two storms producing brief wind gusts, moderate rainfall and cloud to ground lightning are certainly plausible, especially given sfc-based CAPE values of 1000-1500 j/kg will exist. Tonight, the UA disturbance will commence to shift East of the region, leading to diminishing precip and in its wake, increasing 500 mb height fields due to an UA ridge nosing into the CWA. Long term solutions struggle with the specifics of the amplified UA ridge such as, whether or not the center will be close enough to the CWA to ward off any sea-breeze convection mid-late week. What is agreed upon is that the center of the UA will eventually shift west and a general weakness on the Eastern periphery of the UA ridge along with a cold front arriving on Saturday could instigate showers and thunderstorms for the weekend. Remember the once advertised retrograding UA low system for next week, well it continues to be confined to the Eastern CONUS next week due to the spatial extent of the UA ridge. The anticipated cloud cover and chances for renewed rainfall today may keep well above normal warmth at bay, but temps will return into the 90s CWA-wide by mid-week. As a result, heat indices will increase into the 100-105 F range Wednesday-Friday. Patrons are therefore urged to remain cognizant of this fact and take the necessary precautions to remain cool and hydrated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 87 75 91 76 / 70 20 20 10 MLU 89 74 91 75 / 70 30 30 20 DEQ 86 72 90 73 / 60 20 20 10 TXK 86 74 91 75 / 60 20 20 10 ELD 87 73 90 75 / 70 30 30 10 TYR 89 75 90 76 / 60 10 10 10 GGG 87 75 91 76 / 70 20 20 10 LFK 89 76 92 77 / 70 20 20 10 && .SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && 19/29
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 539 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016 ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077- TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-141045- SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE- COLUMBIA-UNION-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-DE SOTO- RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE-NATCHITOCHES-WINN- GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP- MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK- PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE- 539 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA... NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING...ACROSS MUCH OF THE HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD APPROACH STRONG LEVELS AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THESE THREATS MAY EXTEND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
631 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016
TXZ149-131215-
CHEROKEE TX-
631 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTY UNTIL
715 AM CDT...
AT 630 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES SOUTH OF REESE...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JACKSONVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM...AS WELL
AS BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RAINFALL RATES OF ONE INCH
PER HOUR BEING POSSIBLE.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSONVILLE...RUSK...PONTA...MAYDELLE...NEW SUMMERFIELD...
GALLATIN AND REKLAW.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 3213 9511 3199 9500 3175 9498 3178 9539
3181 9539 3184 9543 3187 9542 3189 9543
3189 9542 3192 9541 3195 9543 3195 9544
3197 9544
TIME...MOT...LOC 1130Z 256DEG 14KT 3190 9538
FBThe Shreveport radar (KSHV), 148 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:45 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Multiple roads were closed due to flooding including Hwy. 69 between Rusk and Jacksonville, Hwy. 79 west of Jacksonville, Hwy. 84 at FM 1248, FM 347, FM 768 and FM 2138 outside of Jacksonville, Texas. Numerous other county roads were also underwater and closed.
Highway 60 was closed in Rusk, Texas. Some businesses reported to have had water in them as well.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, June 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 630046, 630048.