Minor river flooding continued from February into the first week of March as the result of heavy rain and melting snow in late February.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Minor river flooding continued from February into the first week of March as the result of heavy rain and melting snow in late February.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 29, 11:43 PM CST, 17 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Paducah KY 1143 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1143 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016 Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 318 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016 Forecast confidence is above average with this forecast package, owing to the convergence in placement and timing among the higher resolution, short fuse, guidance and the longer, medium range guidance. A marked increase in surface dewpoints does not move into the western counties of Southeast Missouri until just around midnight tonight, just ahead of the progressive and nearly vertically stacked leading edge of a low amplitude shortwave centered near NW Missouri around 12z Tuesday (6 am CST). Most of the moisture and inherent instability is tied to a mesoscale wave perturbation ahead of the main trough at 12z Tuesday and will be the primary trigger for mainly elevated convection prior to sunrise. The NAM and GFS deterministic runs suggest that most surface to 1 km CAPE will push into Southeast Missouri and Southwest Illinois between 12z-15z Tuesday (6 am-9 am CST) and become expended between 15z-18z (9am-noon CST) along the surface cold front. There will be some expansion of the frontal zone during the late morning and early afternoon, as lift associated with the main trough axis works through the region during the afternoon. This will keep a broader area of rain over the area through sunset Tuesday, before exiting quickly Tuesday evening. With the lapse rates out of phase with the deeper moisture and the surface frontal boundary, the best chances of surface-based significant thunderstorms (capable of becoming strong to severe) will be minimized during the morning hours, with marginal development over southern sections of West Kentucky during the afternoon hours. The latest SPC Day 2 Outlook corresponds well with the NAM/GFS low level lapse rate and CAPE guidance, keeping the best potential over West Kentucky during the afternoon. Otherwise, no major changes through Wednesday with respect to temperatures, dewpoints, winds, and sky cover across the area. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 318 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016 Except for the Canadian (GEM) model having it a little farther south, the medium range models were in reasonable agreement with their placement and timing of a surface low that is progged to move through the PAH forecast area at the beginning of the extended forecast period. The low will develop as its parent mid level shortwave embedded within northwesterly flow digs through the central Plains. Moist return flow is not shown to be impressive, thus QPF after 12Z Thursday is not expected to exceed a quarter inch of liquid pcpn before ending Thursday night, and conditions should be stable enough to preclude thunder. As colder air surges in from the north on the back side of the low Thursday night, there will be a small possibility of light freezing rain in the northernmost tier of counties in southern IL, otherwise it should be too warm aloft and at the surface for snow. Another mid level shortwave is progged to zip by to the north (Great Lakes). At this time, no measurable pcpn is forecast for us, just clouds. In fact, the entire weekend is expected to be dry. Sunday night, there was enough of a signal in some of the models for a slight chance of rain to be left in the forecast for mainly southeastern MO, due to the approach of a minor mid level shortwave from the southern Plains, which is forecast to damp out by Monday. Near average temps are expected to be on a gradual warming trend after Friday. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1143 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016 VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through the first quarter of the period, however beyond that the approach and passage of a cold front will produce MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys along with SHRA/TSRA. Conditions are expected to become VFR again by the end of the period. Southerly winds will steadily increase with sustained speeds of 8-10 knots and gusts up to 18-20 knots prior to the fropa, then winds will veer around to the northwest with sustained speeds of 12-15 knots with gusts up to 20-25 knots. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...DB AVIATION...JP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 338 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-011100- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 338 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SIZED HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS...MAINLY OVER WEST KENTUCKY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT. SMITH
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding continued from February along the Ohio River. There was flooding of low-lying bottomland woods and fields, as well as parts of a riverfront park.
Minor flooding continued from February along the Ohio River. There was flooding of low-lying bottomland woods and fields.
Minor flooding continued from February along the Ohio River. Small portions of Fort Massac State Park in Metropolis were flooded. There was flooding of low-lying bottomland woods and fields.
Minor flooding continued from February along the Ohio River. Some low-lying bottomland woods and fields were inundated.
Minor flooding continued from February along the Little Wabash River. Several county roads were inundated. Some low-lying fields were flooded.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, March 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 620311, 620312, 620313, 620314, 620315.