Isolated flash flooding occurred during the evening of July 6. A slow-moving thunderstorm complex backed slowly southwestward across western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Isolated flash flooding occurred during the evening of July 6. A slow-moving thunderstorm complex backed slowly southwestward across western Kentucky and southern Illinois. The complex of storms was associated with a small 500 mb shortwave that moved east across western Kentucky late at night. The storms were fed by a very moist southwest wind flow around 30 knots at 850 mb. Precipitable water values were around 2 inches.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 6, 5:47 PM CST, 3 hours 16 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 647 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016 For aviation section. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 342 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016 One MCS is a problem, 2 MCSs interacting with one another is impossible to account for, and the models are definitely having trouble. Bottom line is that this is a low confidence forecast. We will have to wait for the current MCV to rain itself out over the region, which may take well into the evening, but the damaging winds and severe threat have already pushed east out of our Kentucky counties. Will cancel remaining Watch 337 shortly. The upper ridge will expand from the southern Plains eastward through the southeast states Thursday into Friday. At the surface, we will have rather strong southwesterly flow through the period. The 12Z models bring a compact upper storm system eastward into the western Great Lakes Friday, and this may push a weak surface boundary southward into our region. Until the upper ridge begins to builds farther east, we will have to be concerned with one or more additional MCSs moving southeast through the region. Most guidance emphasizes the northeast half of the area, but there is quite a bit of variability in timing and location through early Friday, so the forecast will need adjusting once it becomes more obvious. There is a decent signal for the outflow/cold front to focus convection across the southern half of the area Friday into Friday night. Not sure if it should be believed at this point, but we will have decent chance PoPs down there just in case. Given the heat and humidity expected and the potential for some decent westerly flow aloft, severe weather will be a real possibility with any convection that reaches the area. Hopefully, we will not see anything quite as nasty as this afternoon. Forecast heat indices for Thursday and Friday are well above 100, and even into Advisory territory on Friday. However, given the uncertainties in the MCS forecast, we will not attempt to issue an Advisory for either afternoon at this time. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 342 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016 The extended forecast period suggests that the WFO PAH forecast area will remain on the eastern limb of the short amplitude mid/upper level ridge in the Central U.S. The preferred GFS/GFS Ensemble/Canadian guidance indicate that energy breaking off the Alaskan/Western Canada closed low will ride of the intermountain region, dampen the Central U.S. ridge and develop and deepen a small low in Ohio and Tennessee valley. This feature will return moisture back into the WFO PAH forecast area from the stalled out cold front that is expected to push through the region on Friday. Unfortunately, this low will serve as a small scale Omega block, disrupting upstream flow and generating shortwaves across the area at least through next Monday, when a larger scale trough will push into the Plains and Middle Mississippi River Valley. At this point in time, am concerned that parts of Southeast Missouri may see excessive rainfall over the weekend. This area will need to be monitored for flooding potential this weekend. Otherwise, moderated max/min temperatures downward until next Wednesday, when minor ridging develops just ahead of the next Upper Midwest trough and increases thickness and temperatures briefly on Wednesday. && .AVIATION... Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016 Main forecast concern later tonight 08-13z will be with fog possibility over wet soils from recent thunderstorms. Models not really hinting at much at this time, so will stick with MVFR vsbys for the most part at this time. If winds decouple completely, could be lower IFR conditions. Chance of thunderstorms again tomorrow, esp in PM, but timing and coverage uncertainties preclude explicit mention at this time. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && UPDATE...GM SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...Smith AVIATION...GM
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 931 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-072130- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 931 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND MUCH OF WESTERN KENTUCKY. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ONE OR MORE COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTINING. IN THE ABSENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED AT SOME POINT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
821 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0817 PM FLASH FLOOD MADISONVILLE 37.34N 87.51W
07/06/2016 HOPKINS KY LAW ENFORCEMENT
SEVERAL STREETS IN MADISONVILLE ARE COVERED IN WATER.
HIGH WATER SIGNS BEING DEPLOYED.
&&
CWPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
834 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0830 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 ENE NEBO 37.40N 87.61W
07/06/2016 HOPKINS KY TRAINED SPOTTER
WATER COVERING SEVERAL PORTIONS OF EASTBOUND HWY
41A...WATER FLOWING OVER THE ROAD IN SOME SPOTS
&&
BP2PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
907 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0904 PM FLASH FLOOD MADISONVILLE 37.34N 87.51W
07/06/2016 HOPKINS KY LAW ENFORCEMENT
HWY 1069 IS IMPASSABLE. SEVERAL ROADS HAVE VERY HIGH
WATER ON THEM DUE TO DRAINAGE. BROWN BADGET LOOP BLOCKED
OFF AND PEOPLE ARE STUCK BETWEEN FLOODED ROADS.
&&
CWPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
949 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0940 PM FLASH FLOOD STURGIS 37.55N 87.99W
07/06/2016 UNION KY FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
FLOODING AND WATER OVER SEVERAL ROADS REPORTED IN STURGIS
AREA
&&
BP2PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
952 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0949 PM FLASH FLOOD MADISONVILLE 37.34N 87.51W
07/06/2016 HOPKINS KY LAW ENFORCEMENT
NORTH MAIN ST HWY 41 IMPASSABLE. OFFICER REPORTS WATER UP
TO HOOD OF CAR. THIS IS JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSECTION
WITH ISLAND FORD RD KY 1081.
&&
CWPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1002 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0940 PM FLASH FLOOD MARION 37.33N 88.08W
07/06/2016 CRITTENDEN KY LAW ENFORCEMENT
WATER OVER PORTIONS MULTIPLE COUNTY ROADS AND HIGHWAYS
INCLUDING HWY 60 EAST
&&
BP2The Paducah radar (KPAH), 91 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:05 UTC.
5 flash flood, 2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Highway 149 was under a few inches of water along the Franklin County line. In Marion, a portion of Illinois Route 37 was underwater.
Many roads were flooded throughout Harrisburg. Portions of a city street were covered with several feet of water.
Highway 142 was impassable near the Saline County line. A car was stuck in floodwater on Illinois Route 142 near Equality. Numerous state roads in Gallatin County were partially covered with water.
Portions of one state road and several city streets were flooded. A few portions of these roads were impassable at times. A few city and county roads were temporarily closed.
On the east side of Carbondale, Route 13 eastbound was covered by several inches of water. Two cars were stranded. Manhole covers were blown off by gushing water. A few miles north of Murphysboro, there was flash flooding of roads and yards. The driveway of a home was completely flooded, and ditches were overflowing into the street. The daily rainfall total for the 6th was 4.26 inches at the Carbondale airport.
Flash flooding of a creek in the Shawnee National Forest resulted in significant injury to a camper. A campsite along the creek at Jackson Falls was quickly overtaken by floodwaters. The driver of a van parked near the creek was awakened by the rocking of the van by rushing floodwaters. He escaped, however a tent camper near the van was swept away. The tent camper was swept into the creek and over the waterfall. The camper was transported to a hospital after being rescued from the creek.
Water covered some portions of local roads.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 645370, 645360, 645376, 645387, 645401, 647087, 645430.