Dense Fog in Illinois, December 25, 2016

Name: Dense Fog in Illinois, December 25, 2016
Start: 2016-12-25T03:00
End: 2016-12-25T10:00
Location: Illinois

December 25, 2016 · NWS PAH · 19 events in 19 counties and zones

Widespread dense fog blanketed southern Illinois from late at night through much of Christmas morning. The dense fog occurred north of a warm front that was draped across Tennessee and Arkansas.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 19 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 19

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.

Widespread dense fog blanketed southern Illinois from late at night through much of Christmas morning. The dense fog occurred north of a warm front that was draped across Tennessee and Arkansas.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 25, 2:57 AM CST, 3 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 25, 2:57 AM CST, 3 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
257 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 258 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016

With many of our observation sites down to a mile or less, we
will continue the dense fog advisory until mid morning. Will
continue to monitor obs to see if it will need to be extended
north.

Latest surface analysis shows a warm front just south of the PAH
forecast area. Models show the warm front will lift across the
region today and be just north of our region by 00z. Scattered
showers will be possible mainly north of the front, so this will
give us our best chances this morning, with most of the region
rain free this afternoon into this evening. South of the front,
unseasonably warm air will be surging into the region, and
temperatures this afternoon will climb to near record readings in
the 60s, to possibly 70 degrees in our far south.

Models show a cold front will be moving into our far western
counties around 12z Monday. Widespread showers will spread east
across most of the PAH forecast area late Sunday night into Monday
morning, reaching our far eastern counties by midday. The focus of
the most widespread showers will be shifting east through the
afternoon into Monday evening, with the front moving just
southeast of the PAH fa by 06z Tuesday. Models continue to show
some low level instability along and out ahead of the front, so
continued some slight chances of thunderstorms. Precipitation
will gradually taper off from northwest to southeast late Monday
afternoon into Monday night.

High pressure over the Central Plains at 00z Tuesday will shift
east over the PAH forecast area by 00z Wednesday. Temperatures
will cool down for Tuesday and Tuesday night but still be a
little above seasonal readings.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 258 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016

The ECENS and GEFS continue to maintain similar solutions on the
synoptic scale for Wednesday through Saturday. A quasi zonal mid
tropospheric flow pattern should be in place Wednesday,
transitioning to a developing long wave trof over the east U.S.
Thursday, moving to the East Coast Friday. For Saturday through
Saturday night, confidence really lowers as the operational models
deviate significantly from the mean ensemble solutions. The
ensembles flatten the flow. However the operational models place
more emphasis on individual upper level features over the west U.S.
Considerable variance with respect to how fast any of this energy
translates east as well.

For Wednesday, the ECMWF maintains moving precip across the area,
best PoPs southern 1/2 of the CWFA (SEMO, west KY, much lower PoPs
north toward I-64). This chance continues Wednesday evening, while
shifting east, then ends by Midnight. The GFS maintains a drier
solution. We do not want to discount the dry GFS completely, given
both models are persistent in their solutions. Having said that, the
ECMWF has been the better performing model lately. We will add back
the thunder mention, use convective wording, as there is no change
in the ECMWF depiction of negative Showalter indices and lapse rates
H7/H5 6.5-7 across SEMO, into west KY. That has been in the ECMWF
for 4 model runs now.

Thursday and Friday will be dry as high pressure moves across the
region. Again, a Pacific origin high, so not any real cold air to
speak of.

Confidence really lowers for Saturday. Will have chance PoPs in for
rain as the upper flow backs and becomes southwest, and somewhat
unsettled. We will keep PoPs much lower than inherited blend grids
(influenced too much by raw model input). We will go with a 70/30
ECENS/EC MOS blend to account for the uncertainty element.

Temps in the extended will be a blend of existing numbers and the
latest EC/ECENS MOS.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 258 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016

A warm front will lift across the TAF sites this morning,
resulting in IFR cigs/vsbys along and north of the front,
with LIFR conditions mainly at KCGI/KPAH. Conditions should
improve to MVFR cigs, and MVFR to VFR vsbys behind the front by
early this afternoon. These conditions will persist into this
evening, with some lowering cigs/vsbys late in the TAF period.
Light east winds will become south late this morning and increase
to around 10 kts, becoming gusty late in the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ILZ092>094.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MOZ086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...None.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for KYZ001>013-
     016-017-021-022.

&&

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...CN

Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 24, 9:10 PM CST, 5 hours 50 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
910 PM CST SAT DEC 24 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-260315-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
910 PM CST SAT DEC 24 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADVISORY
PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF CHRISTMAS MORNING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM CHRISTMAS NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
ARE FORECAST TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

YORK

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Dec 24, 10:20 PM CST, 4 hours 40 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1020 PM CST Sat Dec 24 2016

ILZ075>078-082-083-086-087-INZ081-085>087-KYZ014-018-250800-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-HAMILTON-WHITE-SALINE-GALLATIN-
GIBSON-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-UNION KY-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...MCLEANSBORO...CARMI...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...
FORT BRANCH...POSEYVILLE...EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...MORGANFIELD...
HENDERSON
1020 PM CST Sat Dec 24 2016

...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST INDIANA...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND NORTHWEST
KENTUCKY...

AS OF 10 PM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS REPORTED IN THE WABASH VALLEY
OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA...EXTENDING WEST ALONG
INTERSTATE 64 TOWARD MOUNT VERNON. VISIBILITY WAS ONE QUARTER
MILE OR LESS.

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

USE EXTRA CAUTION IF YOU TRAVEL ACROSS THIS REGION...INCLUDING
INTERSTATE 64.

Special weather statement, Dec 25, 2:22 AM CST, 38 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
222 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016

ILZ075>078-080>091-INZ081-085>087-KYZ014-015-018-MOZ076-251100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-GIBSON-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-UNION KY-WEBSTER-
HENDERSON-PERRY MO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...MURPHYSBORO...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...
SHAWNEETOWN...JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...
FORT BRANCH...POSEYVILLE...EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...HENDERSON...PERRYVILLE
222 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016

...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST INDIANA...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND NORTHWEST
KENTUCKY...

AS OF 2 AM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS REPORTED IN MUCH OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS INTO PORTIONS OF THE WABASH VALLEY. VISIBILITY WAS ONE
HALF MILE OR LESS.

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

USE EXTRA CAUTION IF YOU TRAVEL ACROSS THIS REGION, AND BE
PREPARED FOR SUDDEN DROPS IN VISIBILITY.

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

19 dense fog. Local standard time, as filed.

Dense Fog, Alexander

When: December 25, 3:00 AM CST to 10:00 AM CST
Where: Alexander forecast zone
Reported by: AWOS
Coordinates: 37.192, -89.338 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Dense Fog, Edwards

When: December 25, 3:00 AM CST to 10:00 AM CST
Where: Edwards forecast zone
Reported by: AWOS
Coordinates: 38.417, -88.053 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Dense Fog, Franklin

When: December 25, 3:00 AM CST to 10:00 AM CST
Where: Franklin forecast zone
Reported by: AWOS
Coordinates: 37.992, -88.924 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Dense Fog, Gallatin

When: December 25, 3:00 AM CST to 10:00 AM CST
Where: Gallatin forecast zone
Reported by: AWOS
Coordinates: 37.763, -88.230 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Dense Fog, Hamilton

When: December 25, 3:00 AM CST to 10:00 AM CST
Where: Hamilton forecast zone
Reported by: AWOS
Coordinates: 38.082, -88.539 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Dense Fog, Hardin

When: December 25, 3:00 AM CST to 10:00 AM CST
Where: Hardin forecast zone
Reported by: AWOS
Coordinates: 37.518, -88.267 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Dense Fog, Jackson

When: December 25, 3:00 AM CST to 10:00 AM CST
Where: Jackson forecast zone
Reported by: ASOS
Coordinates: 37.785, -89.382 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Dense Fog, Jefferson

When: December 25, 3:00 AM CST to 10:00 AM CST
Where: Jefferson forecast zone
Reported by: AWOS
Coordinates: 38.301, -88.924 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Dense Fog, Johnson

When: December 25, 3:00 AM CST to 10:00 AM CST
Where: Johnson forecast zone
Reported by: AWOS
Coordinates: 37.460, -88.881 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Dense Fog, Massac

When: December 25, 3:00 AM CST to 10:00 AM CST
Where: Massac forecast zone
Reported by: AWOS
Coordinates: 37.219, -88.708 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Dense Fog, Perry

When: December 25, 3:00 AM CST to 10:00 AM CST
Where: Perry forecast zone
Reported by: AWOS
Coordinates: 38.084, -89.367 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Dense Fog, Pope

When: December 25, 3:00 AM CST to 10:00 AM CST
Where: Pope forecast zone
Reported by: AWOS
Coordinates: 37.413, -88.562 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Dense Fog, Pulaski

When: December 25, 3:00 AM CST to 10:00 AM CST
Where: Pulaski forecast zone
Reported by: AWOS
Coordinates: 37.223, -89.127 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Dense Fog, Saline

When: December 25, 3:00 AM CST to 10:00 AM CST
Where: Saline forecast zone
Reported by: AWOS
Coordinates: 37.753, -88.541 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Dense Fog, Union

When: December 25, 3:00 AM CST to 10:00 AM CST
Where: Union forecast zone
Reported by: AWOS
Coordinates: 37.471, -89.255 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Dense Fog, Wabash

When: December 25, 3:00 AM CST to 10:00 AM CST
Where: Wabash forecast zone
Reported by: AWOS
Coordinates: 38.446, -87.844 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Dense Fog, Wayne

When: December 25, 3:00 AM CST to 10:00 AM CST
Where: Wayne forecast zone
Reported by: AWOS
Coordinates: 38.430, -88.426 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Dense Fog, White

When: December 25, 3:00 AM CST to 10:00 AM CST
Where: White forecast zone
Reported by: AWOS
Coordinates: 38.088, -88.180 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Dense Fog, Williamson

When: December 25, 3:00 AM CST to 10:00 AM CST
Where: Williamson forecast zone
Reported by: AWOS
Coordinates: 37.730, -88.930 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Dense Fog: Fog reducing visibility to a quarter mile or less, filed where it caused accidents or disruption.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Illinois in 2016 Every state in 2016 This day in weather history Warnings in Illinois, December 2016

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 668291, 668292, 668293, 668294, 668295, 668296, 668297, 668298, 668299, 668300, 668301, 668302, 668303, 668304, 668305, 668306, 668307, 668308, 668309.