Clusters of thunderstorms occurred near a weak stationary front that extended from central Missouri southeast across the southern tip of Illinois and western Kentucky. The storms were disorganized due to weak winds aloft.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Clusters of thunderstorms occurred near a weak stationary front that extended from central Missouri southeast across the southern tip of Illinois and western Kentucky. The storms were disorganized due to weak winds aloft. However, locally heavy rain and isolated flooding accompanied the strongest storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 3, 2:05 AM CST, 6 hours 25 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 305 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night) Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed Aug 3 2016 Once again this morning, the main concern for today is another convective system over Missouri. This system is relatively weak and disorganized compared to the past couple mornings. The high- resolution models did poorly with the complex yesterday morning, and they are probably not too skilled with this one either. Similar to yesterday, the nam/hrrr aggressively bring the mcs east-southeast across our region during the morning. The system is already becoming outflow dominated, and the hourly hrrr runs have started to indicated a more rapid weakening trend. Therefore, this system is not expected to have a major direct impact on our region. Unlike yesterday, all model guidance is in good agreement that large-scale forcing will strengthen across our region today as a 500 mb shortwave moves southeast from the Iowa/northern Missouri area. The 00z nam even closes off a weak 500 mb low over the Lower Ohio Valley by this evening. As a result, model qpf and pops are considerably higher today than previous model runs. Given the abundant moisture and apparent increase in forcing, the forecast will follow model trends. Pops will be raised to around 50 percent. Heavy rainfall is again a concern and will be mentioned in the hwo. Temps will be lowered to account for the increase in clouds and precip. The 500 mb shortwave is forecast to slow down or stall over the Ohio Valley tonight and Thursday. There is good agreement among the models, most of which indicate qpf over western Kentucky through the night and into Thursday. Pops will be raised accordingly. Again, the increase in clouds and precip warrants lowering high temps Thursday as well. Weak flow fields through the column suggest heavy rain will be the main hazard. Barring any more unforeseen shortwaves, Thursday night appears dry. However, that will be a short-lived dry-out as the 500 mb ridge starts to get suppressed southward. A cold front will drop southward toward the Lower Ohio Valley into a very moist and unstable air mass. Pops will again increase from north to south on Friday. The window of dangerous heat indices continues to narrow, and it now looks confined mainly to Friday just ahead of the cold front. Thunder chances will continue Friday night as the front settles across our region. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed Aug 3 2016 Average confidence in the long term due to model differences. Still very few changes synoptically over our area through the long term period. Aloft the region will remain between the better flow to our north and an H5 ridge over the southern plains. Through the period the nose of the ridge attempts to build into our region, but models not in the best agreement on the timing or placement. At the surface models bring a frontal boundary into the lower Ohio Valley on Saturday, show it becoming quasi-stationary and oriented NW-SE over our CWA on Sunday, remaining over the same general area on Monday, then showing frontolysis (weakening) and starting to lift back to the north and east on Tuesday as a warm front. Previous model runs were showing very little discontinuity across the aforementioned front, but latest runs are showing minor decreases in temperatures/dewpoints as slightly cooler/drier high pressure manages to spread into the northeast half of our CWA through Monday night. Over the southwest half of the CWA deep moisture, plenty of instability, and periodic upper level disturbances will provide enough forcing for ascent for at least scattered showers and thunderstorms through the same period. Coverage will be dependent upon on the position and magnitude of the nose of the H5 ridge. Convective activity should be more widespread on Tuesday as the frontal boundary moves across back across the area. Temperatures will remain fairly close to normal through the period. The southern sections of southeast Missouri could see triple digit heat index values Saturday and Tuesday afternoons. Minor relief from the humidity is expected over the northeast sections in the period, however over the rest of the area dewpoints are forecast to remain in the lower to mid 70s, so there appears to be no relief from the humid/sticky conditions over those areas in the near future. && .AVIATION... Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed Aug 3 2016 Fog has been increasing overnight across our region. Expect periods of IFR vsbys until daytime heating burns off the fog by mid-morning. Thunderstorms will likely occur at some point today at all sites. Timing the activity is a real challenge. The initial storm complex over Missouri is weakening early this morning, however new storms are expected to form during the day. Outside of storms, mainly VFR conditions are expected. Winds will be light. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && SHORT TERM...MY LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...MY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 349 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-040900- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 349 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCLUDING SOME STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...THE WABASH VALLEY OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND THE OHIO RIVER COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MONDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OR PART OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 100 TO 105 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL MOST LIKELY BE FRIDAY...WHEN HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 107 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 818 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 ILZ075>078-080>083-INZ081-085-031430- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-GIBSON-POSEY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION... MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO... CARMI...FORT BRANCH...POSEYVILLE 818 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 AT 818 AM...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVERED MUCH OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE STRONGEST STORMS NORTH OF PICKNEYVILLE WILL HEAD TOWARD THE MOUNT VERNON AREA THROUGH 915 AM. THESE STORMS AS THEY APPROACH INTERSTATE 64 AND 57...WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH ALONG WITH RAINFALL RATES 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. OTHER SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE WABASH RIVER. BE ALERT FOR STANDING WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. CN
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 904 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 ILZ085>087-089>091-KYZ010-014-031515- WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-JOHNSON-POPE-HARDIN-CRITTENDEN- UNION KY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN... VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...MARION...MORGANFIELD 904 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 AT 904 AM...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST ALONG ROUTE 13 FROM MARION TO HARRISBURG. THE STORMS WERE MOVING INTO GALLATIN COUNTY AS WELL. STORMS WERE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SHAWNEE NATIONAL FOREST. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO WATER OVER SOME ROADS TYPICALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO MINOR FLOODING. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLY WARNINGS. CN
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
State Highway 14 and a secondary road near Thompsonville were covered by water in spots.
A trained spotter reported nearly 1.5 inches in 30 minutes. There was minor street flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, August 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 650244, 652341.