Tornado and Hail in North Dakota, August 3, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
320 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2016

Current surface analysis places low near the intersection of the
North Dakota, Montana, and Saskatchewan borders. Cold front now
loops down over western North Dakota to the east of a Tioga to
Dickinson line while warm front lifts north into southern
Saskatchewan/Manitoba. Moisture continues to surge into the area
in the wake of the warm front, with a broad swath of 70 degree or
higher dewpoints over central and eastern North Dakota. Upper
level analysis places upper low sliding along the international
border, now located near the Alberta and Saskatchewan border.
Variety of waves continue to lift ahead of the low.

For late this afternoon into this evening...focal point for robust
convection to start will be along and ahead of the aforementioned
cold front. Latest high resolution models expect development to
start around the 22-23Z timeframe. As has been previously
advertised, ahead of the front in the area of high moisture a
broad area of unbridled cape values of 3500 j/kg or greater have
developed. Deep layer shear will also be on the increase with the
gradual advancement of upper low. A potpourri of severe weather
will be possible with the greatest threat being large hail given
the very strong instability. A tornado or two cannot be ruled
out...particularly early in the event when storms are expected to
be more isolated. As time goes on, upscale growth is expected as
the front pushes eastward forming a line and increasing the
damaging wind threat. Storms are expected to be east of the area
by late tonight.

On Thursday...Surface low pushes from southeastern Manitoba into
southern Ontario as cold front slides its way through the
midwest. Breezy conditions expected with tightening pressure
gradient in the wake of the low, along with cooler conditions. A
few showers possible over northern locations in cyclonic flow as
the upper low passes to the north and off to the northeast.

Quiet weather expected to end the week as weak upper level ridging
develops over the area. Temperatures will gradually warm towards
average.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2016

Concern for the long term period is a similar pattern setting up
Sunday through Tuesday, as what we are currently seeing in the short
term period. That is to say that another closed upper low drops into
the far Pacific northwest Sunday. This induces broad ridging into
the northern plains with southwest flow aloft once again developing.

A lead shortwave trough is expected to push through Sunday night
through Monday night producing a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms. The ECMWF shows the main upper low will follow, with
a path similar to todays short term upper low, which moves into
southeast Alberta by 06z Wednesday. Pattern recognition in this
scenario suggests we could be looking for another round of severe
weather Tuesday night through Wednesday of next week. The GFS is
similar to the ECMWF through Tuesday, but then stalls the upper low
Wednesday across north central Montana before dropping south into
southeast Idaho Thursday. Bottom line is an unsettled pattern with
chances for thunderstorms, possibly severe, Monday through
Wednesday. Highs will be in the 80s with lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2016

Thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon along a
north to south orientated line passing through KBIS. Some of these
storms may become severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts.
The storms will progress east this evening and increase in
coverage...affecting the KJMS terminal. Storms should push to the
east of the area by late tonight. Localized MVFR cigs will be
possible on Thursday, though most areas will remain VFR.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
356 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-042100-
RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WARD-MCHENRY-PIERCE-MERCER-OLIVER-
MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-
GRANT-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
356 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 /256 PM MDT WED AUG 3 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A LINE FROM BOTTINEAU SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE
BISMARCK AND FORT YATES AREAS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN MOVE
EASTWARD AND ARE LIKELY TO BECOME NUMEROUS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE. PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLY IN EXCESS
OF TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER...DAMAGING WINDS...AND SOME TORNADOES.
LOCALLYHEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE IN SLOWER MOVING STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-042100-
DIVIDE-BURKE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-MCKENZIE-DUNN-GOLDEN VALLEY-
BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-HETTINGER-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
356 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 /256 PM MDT WED AUG 3 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.