High Surf and Heavy Rain in Hawaii, September 3 to 4, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
950 PM HST FRI SEP 2 2016

.Correction...
To include that the Big Island is not in the Hurricane Watch.

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.SYNOPSIS...
Influence from Hurricane Lester will gradual take hold of the
main Hawaiian Islands as the evening progresses, and through
Saturday night. Lester is forecast to pass north of the smaller
islands over the weekend bringing with it the potential for
hazardous weather. High pressure will build back in north of the
area after the departure of Lester, with a trade wind weather
pattern returning early next week.

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.DISCUSSION...
As for this evening...trade showers are affecting all of the
larger islands but more so from Oahu eastward. The forecast was
updated recently for west Molokai as showers moved into that area.
Isolated to scattered showers are also present along the leeward
coast now, and the updated forecast addresses to that as well.

Otherwise...breezy trades will be the order of tonight with
passing showers. Lester is forecast to run parallel north of the
islands Saturday through Saturday night. As it does so, the winds
will be shifting to north and then eventually west at moderate to
strong speeds with gusts to 40 mph. On top of the winds, there is
the potential of heavy rains. And besides the winds and potential
heavy rains, large dangerous surf is expected along the east facing
shores of most islands. Inundation of low lying coastal areas is
possible. It should be noted that all of the main Hawaiian Islands
except the Big Island, Kauai, and Niihau is under a Hurricane Watch.
Please refer to the Hurricane Lester Local Statement (HFOHLSHFO) for
more details on Lester.

By Sunday afternoon, Lester is expected to be a distant north of
kauai. As Lester tracks northwestward away from the islands, the
wind flow will change to the east and southeast. A band of clouds
and showers trailing Lester will be moving through the islands
from east to west Sunday. This band has the making of a showery
Sunday and Sunday night. It is expected to clear Kauai County
by Monday afternoon. In its wake, trades will be returning to the
islands. The trades will start off moderate to locally strong then
ease to moderate strength Tuesday where it will stay at this strength
to until Thursday when the stronger trades return. The trades will
ease off once again over the weekend. An upper level disturbance
may provide a bit of enhancement to the trade showers during the
second half of the new week.

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.AVIATION...
TEMPO MVFR conditions will occur tonight and Saturday, mainly
over northern, windward and mauka areas as HURCN LESTER moves
northeast of the state. Depending on how close the system
approaches the islands, TEMPO IFR and strong, gusty winds are a
possibility in exposed areas. VFR will predominate over leeward
sections.

An AIRMET for low level turbulence south thru west of the
mountains remains in effect as breezy trade winds persist ahead
of LESTER.

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.MARINE...
Winds and seas will be highly dependent on the track and intensity
of Lester and will be highly variable from one location to another.
The strongest winds will be near the center of the system but
strong winds may occur well away from the center due to terrain
effects. Winds and seas will gradually diminish after the passage
of Lester. Moderate to locally strong trade winds are expected to
spread across the islands from the east on Monday.

Dangerous and very high surf generated by Lester will be affecting
the east facing shores of most islands tonight through Saturday.
The surf will be peaking island by island through Saturday as this
swell moves westward in tandem with Lester's movement. Surf for
the north facing shores for the smaller islands will be reassessed
if an advisory is needed. The surf will gradually diminish from
east to west Saturday night and Sunday.

Surf heights along south facing shores will see an uptick beginning
Monday as a series of south swells are expected across the area
next week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Hurricane Watch for Maui, Kahoolawe, Molokai, Lanai, and Oahu.

High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Sunday for Kauai Windward-Oahu
Koolau-Olomana-Molokai-Maui Windward West-Windward Haleakala-
South Big Island-Big Island North and East.

Hurricane Watch for Oahu Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui
County Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for the remaining
waters not under the Hurricane Watch, which include waters around
Kauai, Oahu leeward waters,and Big Island windward, leeward and
southeast waters.

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Discussion/Marine...H Lau
Aviation...Kinel