Heavy Rain in Florida, September 3, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
233 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016

.NEAR TERM /Through Saturday/...

A frontal boundary remains draped just south of the FL/GA border,
bringing drier conditions to southeast Georgia. An area of showers
continued across the eastern half of northeast Florida this
afternoon. Hi-res guidance has been struggling with the
convection, and they continue to be too strong. Global models
indicate more development across the interior later this afternoon
into the evening hours, so kept the likely PoPs going. Showers and
isolated storms should dissipate after midnight. Overnight lows
will be around 70 to 75.

High pressure will begin building into the southeast Sunday
afternoon, with drier air moving into southeast Georgia by the
evening. The stream of deep moisture will continue through Sunday
across northeast Florida, and numerous showers and storms are
forecast once again. Locally heavy rainfall is possible. Highs
will be generally in the mid 80s across northeast Florida and the
upper 80s to near 90 across southeast Georgia.

.SHORT TERM /Sunday Night through Monday Night/...
Upper ridge will be centered over Gulf Coast states with troughing
along southeast coast. Consensus guidance suggests low precip
potential across our southern counties during this period...dry
I-10 corridor northward Monday. High temps are expected to be in
the upper 80s to around 90.

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
Upper ridge remains over the Gulf Coast states through Wed...then
gradually develops eastward over forecast area Thu/Fri. Consensus
guidance forecasting dry conditions during period...except for
very low POP values Wed-Fri across southern counties of our
forecast area. Near normal temperatures are expected across ne FL
and eastern counties of se GA...slightly above normal temps
interior se GA...during the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Cloudy skies continue south of the frontal boundary stretching
from post-tropical Hermine this afternoon, with MVFR cigs. Sct to
BKN cigs 1.5-3kft will continue through the afternoon with showers
developing into the evening hours. East to northeast winds 10
knots or less will continue this afternoon, with light winds
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots will increase to 10-15 knots
on Sunday as high pressure builds into the southeast states. High
pressure will then build across the region through the middle of
the week, with winds 10 knots or less. Seas may build to 4 to 6
feet on Monday and continue into Tuesday 50-60nm offshore St.
Augustine and Flagler due to swell. Otherwise, seas will be less
than 3 feet for the nearshore waters through the period.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  88  69  91 /  10  20  10  10
SSI  73  86  73  88 /  20  30  10  10
JAX  73  87  72  89 /  40  70  30  10
SGJ  73  84  74  87 /  50  70  30  20
GNV  72  85  71  89 /  60  70  30  20
OCF  73  86  72  89 /  50  70  30  30

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Kennedy/Wolf/Walker

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
322 AM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-041130-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO
FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO
ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM
20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
NM-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COASTAL
NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-
WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-
INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
322 AM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST FLORIDA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR IN A
FEW LOCATIONS.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.