Drought in Hawaii, March 1 to 31, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
829 PM HST MON FEB 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...WITH LIGHT TRADES SETTLING IN OVER THE ISLANDS AFTERWARDS.
ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT THIS WEEKEND COULD BRING AN UPTICK IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING FRONT/TROUGH IS OVER MAUI COUNTY THIS EVENING...AS
EVIDENT BY A LOOSE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST CLOUD BAND OVER THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN LATER
TONIGHT...REACHING THE BIG ISLAND TUESDAY.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...EXPECT A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO SET UP NORTH
OF THE ISLANDS. THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TRADES TO RETURN...BUT THE
PROXIMITY TO THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP THE TRADES LIGHT. LINGERING VOG
OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT
IMPROVING AIR QUALITY OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. AS THE TRADES
BECOME ESTABLISHED...LOOK FOR THE VOG TO BE CONCENTRATED OVER AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE VOLCANO THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND STRONGER WITH THE FRONT
THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME. NEITHER SHOW THE FRONT BEING A
SIGNIFICANT RAINMAKER...BUT WILL BE WATCHING FUTURE RUNS FOR
FURTHER REFINEMENT OF THE FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH KAUAI AND OAHU
TONIGHT...THROUGH MAUI COUNTY TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE BIG
ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER MAUI COUNTY
THIS EVENING...MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD...AND SOME TEMPORARY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS MAY IMPACT PHMK...PHNY...AND PHOG. ELSEWHERE...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

AIRMET SIERRA MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ACROSS MOLOKAI...LANAI AND MAUI.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NEW NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FILL IN
OVERNIGHT. THIS SWELL WILL BE RATHER LONG LIVED WITH IT PEAK
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WARNING LEVEL SURF
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES FROM KAUAI
TO MAUI. ADVISORY LEVEL SURF IS LIKELY ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SEAS WILL EXCEED THE 10 FOOT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD OVER
WATERS EXPOSED TO LARGE NORTHWEST SWELLS. ALSO WINDS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT MAY CAUSE WINDS TO EXCEED THE 25 KT THRESHOLD OVER SOME
COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU
KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KONA-BIG ISLAND
NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI
CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...JELSEMA