Wildfire in Hawaii, June 6 to 7, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
950 AM HST MON JUN 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Trade winds will increase through the week bringing moderate to
breezy trade winds to the islands. An old frontal boundary will
pass through the islands today and tonight bringing an increase in
windward and mountain showers...with a few passing showers
reaching leeward locations. High pressure will remain firmly
entrenched to the north maintaining breezy trade winds into the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An old frontal boundary over windward areas today will bring
clouds and passing showers to windward and mountain areas as
moderate trade winds push the moisture into the windward slopes. A
few showers will push over the mountains of the smaller islands
bringing brief rainfall to leeward locations. The leeward coast
and lower slopes of the Big Island will continue a diurnal pattern
of nighttime downslope flow, and daytime sea breezes bringing
clouds and isolated showers in the afternoons.

Trade winds will push the enhanced moisture from the frontal
boundary west of the state tonight, and drier air will replace it
from the northeast. High pressure will remain firmly entrenched
north of the state through the week bringing moderate to breezy
trade winds and comfortable sensible weather into the weekend.
Passing showers will focus over the windward slopes.

Models are indicating some enhanced trade showers reaching the
windward Big Island Friday night, and then the rest of the state
over the weekend. However, the global models disagree on if these
showers will receive any upper level support, with ECMWF providing
some modest lift with an upper level trough nearby, while the GFS
keeps this trough east of the area. The current forecast for the
weekend maintains average rainfall in a trade wind regime, but
this forecast will be modified if the models align and place the
upper trough over the islands.

&&

.AVIATION...
Clouds and showers moving in with the trade winds will bring tempo
mountain obscurations and MVFR ceilings and visibility across
most windward sections of the islands today. AIRMET SIERRA for
mountain obscurations is in effect for north through east
sections of Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island. Isolated MVFR
ceilings may affect the windward sections of the other islands
today as well.

This band of clouds and showers should spread to the southern end
of the island chain tonight and south of the area by Tuesday.

No other AIRMETs are in effect, however, the trade winds are
expected to slowly strengthen over the next 24 hours and will
likely result in AIRMET TANGO issued for moderate turbulence
across the leeward sections before Tuesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Above average surf appears likely along southern shores late this
week, remaining through the weekend, and carrying into early next
week. The southerly source features a storm-force low located
southeast of New Zealand that was tracking toward the north-
northeast around 10 kt and a gale to its northeast diving
southeast at 25 kt. The latest model guidance reflects this
pattern and depicts a very large fetch of gale to storm-force
southerly winds associated with this evolving system over the next
few days. A recent altimeter pass centered over the main fetch
region, southeast of New Zealand, showed seas up to 40 ft.
Advisory level surf appears likely over the upcoming weekend.

Out across the Hawaiian waters, moderate to locally strong trade
winds will return this week as high pressure builds north of the
state. As a result, small craft advisory conditions are expected
for the leeward Kauai waters today, then across the Pailolo and
Alenuihaha Channels and Maalaea Bay beginning tonight. In addition
to the increasing winds, this will translate to short period surf
rising along east facing shores through the week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM HST Tuesday
for Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel.

&&

Morrison...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
Foster...AVIATION