Drought in Hawaii, June 1 to 30, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
915 PM HST TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A high north of the area will produce locally breezy trade winds
that will push a shower band over the islands and keep windward
areas rather wet through tomorrow. It will turn drier starting
Wednesday night as the shower band shifts south and dissipates.
Winds will also subside as a low approaches from the northeast.
Daytime sea breezes and nighttime land breezes will prevail from
Friday through Monday with afternoon clouds and showers over
interior areas. A new high will build north of the area next week
bringing a return to breezy trade winds and windward showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Surface analyses show a 1027 MB surface high 730 miles north of
Kauai at 33N 160W. The high is producing locally breezy trade winds
over the main Hawaiian Islands. Satellite loops show a band of
showery low clouds extending east northeast from over the windward
sides of the islands. The trade winds are nearly parallel to this
cloud band so they will continue to carry these clouds over the
islands. Windward areas will remain rather cloudy and showery
through tomorrow and some showers will spread leeward on the smaller
islands. The cloud band will gradually shift south and break up
through tomorrow night and windward showers will taper off.

The global models are in good agreement showing the high weakening
and a trough moving toward the islands from the northeast. Winds
over the area will become gentle by Friday night and remain rather
light through next Monday. This light low-level flow will allow land
and sea breezes to prevail. This means muggy weather with afternoon
clouds and showers and clear, cool nights and mornings. The
atmosphere will remain fairly stable, so widespread heavy rain is
not expected, but localized heavy showers are possible.

Starting around next Tuesday, the surface trough will dissipate and
a new high will build north of the islands. Trade winds will return
Tuesday and become breezy by the middle of next week. The trades
will bring an end to the muggy weather and afternoon showers and a
return to windward showers.

&&

.AVIATION...
ENE winds near the surface will carry remnants of an old front over
the main Hawaiian Islands and produce occasional MVFR ceilings and
VSBY over N thru E sections. Most terminals will have VFR
conditions, but PHLI will have TEMPO MVFR ceilings thru this evening
and PHTO will likely have MVFR ceilings through Wednesday. Improving
conditions will likely spread SE across the area thru tomorrow, but
AIRMET SIERRA for MTN OBSC will likely remain up thru Wednesday for
some areas.

&&

.MARINE...
A surface high north of the will produce moderate to fresh trade
winds through Wednesday. We expect winds to remain below the small-
craft-advisory threshold, but winds in the windier areas around Maui
and the Big Island will be close to the advisory level. Winds will
subside starting Wednesday evening as the high weakens and a trough
approaches from the northeast. Light to gentle winds are expected
over the weekend. Trade winds will strengthen again by the middle of
next week as the low dissipates and a new high builds north of the
area.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Donaldson