Wildfire in Hawaii, January 21 to 23, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1004 AM HST THU JAN 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A TYPICAL TRADE WIND LATER TODAY
AS A DISSIPATING FRONT STALLS NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. MODERATE TRADE
WINDS WILL FOCUS MODEST SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD SLOPES OF MAINLY THE
BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH FEWER WINDWARD SHOWERS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WITH RATHER DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND...WITH
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE BIG ISLAND TODAY. THE FRONTAL
MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW...MAINLY BELOW 9000 FT...AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES OF
THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI TODAY. ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE...
WINDWARD CLOUDS WITH SCANT RAINFALL SHOULD BURN OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S MAINTAIN
A SOMEWHAT COOL FEEL TO THE AIR. AN INVERSION BUILDING BETWEEN
3500 AND 4500 FT WILL PRODUCE VERY STABLE CONDITIONS AND ABUNDANT
LEEWARD SUNSHINE.

TRADE WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...LASTING THROUGH ONLY SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY PASSES ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF
THE STATE. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN MODEST AND FOCUSED PRIMARILY ALONG
WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI WHERE REMNANT FRONTAL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED LINGER. RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS.

A RETURN TO A RATHER DRY AND AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN IS DUE THIS
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY AN
ADVANCING FRONT. WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND COULD SEE SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE...BUT FOR MOST PLACES INTERIOR CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN BRINGING SHALLOW MOISTURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE CLOUDS AND SOME MODEST RAINFALL ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST
FACING SLOPES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR PHTO AND PHOG
WHICH ARE EXPERIENCING OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS
AND SHRA. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
ESPECIALLY AT PHTO. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO OCCURRING
OVER MOST N THROUGH E FACING SLOPES.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LATEST IN THE SERIES OF LARGE NORTHWEST SWELLS IS ON THE
DECLINE. A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU...WHILE MOST NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF THE REMAINING ISLANDS ARE UNDER A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY. BUOY 51101 SHOWED A SHARP DROP OFF IN LONG PERIOD ENERGY
WITH COMBINED SEAS DROPPING TO 9 TO 10 FEET DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. AS A RESULT...SURF SHOULD BE DOWN WELL BELOW
WARNING LEVELS BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS
HOLDING INTO THE NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ FOR SEAS OF
10 FT OR MORE REMAINS POSTED FOR WATERS EXPOSED TO THE SWELL. THE
SCA SHOULD BE DOWN BY THE EVENING.

SURF WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY PULSES OF WARNING LEVEL SWELL. SURF WILL LIKELY RISE
TO WARNING LEVELS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A
POTENTIALLY MUCH LARGER SWELL IS DUE ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CURRENTLY FORECAST SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STORM THAT WILL
GENERATE THE SWELL...WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING LARGER SWELL AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI AND FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI.

HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT MAALAEA BAY...LEEWARD BIG ISLAND WATERS...AND BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

WROE