Name: Wildfire in Guam, May 7 to 10, 2016
Start: 2016-05-07T12:00
End: 2016-05-10T00:00
Location: Guam

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS GUM wrote it up.

Dry conditions across the Western Pacific caused fires on Guam.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Guam wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 6, 10:07 PM UTC, 3 hours 53 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 6, 10:07 PM UTC, 3 hours 53 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
807 AM CHST SAT MAY 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TRADE-WIND SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 12 TO 23 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 10
THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR. THE WEATHER BALLOON FROM LAST NIGHT
INDICATES THAT THE WINDS TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ABOVE 25
THOUSAND FEET...AND ABOVE 30 THOUSAND FEET THEY INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 KNOTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SHOW THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
IS STILL IN OUR AREA. IT IS NOT VERY ACTIVE YET WEATHERWISE...
WILL LOOK TO SEE IF AND WHEN THIS WILL CHANGE IN THE FUTURE
THOUGH. OTHERWISE...THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD DRY
WEATHER LOOKS SET TO CONTINUE. AT THE VERY END OF THEIR RUNS...
BOTH THE GFS40 AND THE ECMWF-HIRES START TRYING TO BRING SOME
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH. THAT IS LIKELY HOW THE
DROUGHT WILL BREAK WHEN IT DOES...HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE PROBABLY
TRYING TO DO IT TOO SOON.

WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THEY COULD HIT 4 TO
6 FEET BY THE END OF THE MARINE FORECAST PERIOD. THE KEETCH-BYRAM
DROUGHT INDEX MANAGED TO EKE OUT A HIGHER PEAK FOR THIS YEAR AT
769. AFTERNOON RH WAS A LITTLE TOO HIGH YESTERDAY FOR RED FLAG
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...TODAY COULD BE A NAIL BITER IF THE CLOUDS
CLEAR AWAY IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON THE WAY THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS MOVING FROM POHNPEI TOWARD CHUUK THIS
MORNING. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PERSIST
NEAR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THRU THIS EVENING...AND ALSO REACH CHUUK
LATER TONIGHT. FARTHER EAST...A TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE CAN BE
SEEN BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND 6N...MEANDERING NORTHEASTWARD FROM
SOUTH OF THE MAJURO AT 170E TO EAST OF THE DATE LINE AT 175W. IT
THEN CONTINUES EASTWARD BETWEEN 3N AND 8N TO BEYOND 155W. THE
ORIENTATION OF THIS ZONE SHOULD ALLOW DRIER TRADES TO HANG ON NEAR
MAJURO TODAY...BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF CONVERGING TRADES LATE TONIGHT.
AS THIS ZONE GRADUALLY PUSHES FARTHER WESTWARD...IT WILL COUPLE WITH
PERSISTENT DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT TO PROLONG UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM
MAJURO WESTWARD TO CHUUK THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
REASONING FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST CAN BE FOUND UNDER EASTERN
MICRONESIA ABOVE.

THE LEADING EDGE OF A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE-WIND SURGE HAS PASSED
YAP AND IS PROGRESSING TOWARD KOROR THIS MORNING. STRONG CONVERGENCE
EXISTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS SURGE NEAR 7N. LATEST
SOUNDING DATA FROM BOTH LOCATIONS INDICATE LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTING NORTHWARD OVER BOTH PLACES FROM THE SOUTH. AT THE UPPER-
LEVELS...DIVERGENT FLOW SOUTH OF 7N IS ALSO SHIFTING NORTHWARD. THIS
COMBINED TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS WEEKEND AND SHOULD CAUSE
CONVECTION CURRENTLY NEAR THE CONVERGENCE AREA TO SHIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARD KOROR SUNDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY YAP BY SUNDAY EVENING.
ONCE STARTED...THIS UNSTABLE REGIME IS GOING TO LAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

STANKO/CHAN

Event by event

1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.

Wildfire, Guam

When: May 7, 12:00 PM GST to May 10, 12:00 AM GST
Where: Guam forecast zone
Reported by: Newspaper

While Guam and the CNMI have not entered into Severe drought (drought level 2 of 4) level, rainfall was below average. Guam saw only 1.08 inches of rain compared to|the usual 3.38 inches. Guam does have adequate water resources, but the |dry conditions have allowed grass fires to flare up across the island.

On May 7th a large fire began on Nimitz Hill and burned for a few days. It destroyed|an estimated 300 to 400 acres of uninhabited jungle. It came under control by the |10th. The fire came close to military housing on Turner Road and as close as 30 feet to the KSTO radio studio.

What these are

Wildfire: A fire burning in wildland vegetation, with its acreage and damage where known.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Guam in 2016 Every state in 2016 This day in weather history Warnings in Guam, May 2016

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 654463.