Coastal Flood and Damaging Winds in Florida, January 17, 2016

Name: Coastal Flood and Damaging Winds in Florida, January 17, 2016
Start: 2016-01-17T04:54
End: 2016-01-17T10:00
Location: Florida

January 17, 2016 · NWS MFL · 5 events in 2 counties and zones

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $1,000
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 5

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS MFL wrote it up.

A line of severe storms developed over the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the early morning hours as an area of low pressure moved across the Florida peninsula. The line moved onshore the Collier county coast early in the morning, producing a large swath of wind damage. Numerous additional reports of wind gusts 45 to 55 mph and minor tree damage were recorded along the east coast metro as the line moved eastwards and into the Atlantic. A storm surge was also recorded as the line made landfall along the Collier county coast.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Miami, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 17, 12:49 AM EST, 4 hours 5 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 17, 12:49 AM EST, 4 hours 5 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1249 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2016

.AVIATION...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER IN STORE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES TOWARDS FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRING STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL
AS DAMAGING WIND IS POSSIBLE. THE SUSTAINED WINED WILL ALSO PICK
UP ALONG THE FRONT, TO AROUND 20 KTS, WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS.
IN GENERAL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE KEPT IN THE TAFS FOR NOW, BUT IFR
UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS OR STORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. THE WEATHER BECOMES QUIET,
EXCEPT FOR THE WIND, WHICH WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016/

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST/GRIDS THIS EVENING. SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
ISSUED AT 01Z HAD REALLY NO CHANGE...SLIGHT RISK SEVERE FROM WPB
TO EVERGLADES CITY...MARGINAL RISK TO THE EAST. SOME CONVECTION
/DISCRETE/ EXPECTED IN WAA REGIME OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND THAT SHOULD WAIT
UNTIL 8-10Z BEFORE REACHING WESTERN AREAS. DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. AS OF THIS EVENING...SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA AS WELL AS GULF
WATERS. THIS AGREES WITH NEAR-TERM MODELS...AGAIN SUGGESTING NO
NEED FOR CHANGES IN FORECAST THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL BRING THE RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND THEN
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRED EARLY TODAY ALONG MIDDLE TX COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE CLEARING DEPICTED ON VSBL SATELLITE LATE THIS AFTN IN
NW GULF...WHERE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HAS FIRED. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL RAPIDLY MOVE TOWARD FLORIDA IN THE NEXT 9 TO 12 HOURS. AHEAD
OF THE LOW...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND
FRIDAYS FRONT WILL RETREAT BACK INTO THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT
LATE TONIGHT. THEN SUNDAY...THE COLD-FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WILL CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING DAYBREAK AND
DEPARTING BY MID-AFTERNOON.

SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS /IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES/
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...IN SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE OUTLOOKS. ALTHOUGH
MOST IDEAL MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/DYNAMICS WILL RESIDE CLOSER TO
THE LOPRES TRACK /CNTRL AND NRN PENINSULA/ PLENTY OF FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
BY LATER TONIGHT. A 100 KT JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
SUBTROPICAL/SRN JET WILL RESIDE NEAR/JUST NORTH OF REGION...AND
DEEP LAYER WIND SPEEDS WILL BE VERY HIGH...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING
50 KT DOWN TO H9. THIS WILL RESULT IN BULK SHEAR VALUES AS HIGH AS
60 KT. LLVL SRH VALUES BETWEEN 200 AND 400 M^2/S^2 WILL BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT STRONG WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE IN ANY
SIGNIFICANT DOWNDRAFTS/OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY...INSTABILITY
/MUCAPE UP TO 1 KJ/KG WILL BRING GOOD LIFT...AND MOISTURE SURGING
NORTHWARD /PWATS NEAR 2 IN/ WILL COMPLETE INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR
STRONG CONVECTION. DISCRETE CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT WAA...IS QUITE POSSIBLE AFTER 2AM IN THE
SW...SPREADING NEWD IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
ENCOUNTER THE HIGHEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...THUS TORNADO RISK IS
CLEARLY WORTH MENTIONABLE.

THE EVOLVING SQUALL LINE OVER NW GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE FULLY MATURE NEAR DAWN WHEN IT APPROACHES GULF
COAST. THIS WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
NOON...BRINGING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PSBLY QLCS ORIENTED
TORNADOES.

SYNOPTIC WIND FIELDS...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE LINE...WILL BE
UNUSUALLY STRONG. SSW WINDS 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH CANT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE REGION...AND A WIND ADVISORY IS NECESSARY.
THE SW WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL LIKELY BRING DEADLY RIP
CURRENTS...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...AND POTENTIAL BEACH
EROSION/HIGH SURF...PARTICULARLY IF MODEL-FORECAST STORM SURGE OF
AROUND 2 FT MATERIALIZES. FOR THESE REASONS...GULF COAST IS IN
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AND MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THREAT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...LEAVING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LIKELY ADVECTING THE COOLEST AIR OF THE
SEASON IN FOR SUNDAY OR MONDAY NIGHTS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE...THOUGH GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD DURING THE WEEK. WITH SUBTROPICAL JET OVERHEAD THROUGH
THE WEEK...MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PASS OVER THE REGION. VOID
OF MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY...ONLY IMPACT SHOULD BE PERIODS OF CI
CLOUDS. FLOW TURNS NELY BY MIDWEEK...THEN SOUTH BY FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER LOW/COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY. WILL BE MONITORING THIS SYSTEM FOR CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL OVER THE COMING DAYS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR JANUARY.

MARINE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING WATERSPOUTS...POSSIBLE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS.
WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KT LIKELY FOR ALL OPEN WATERS. GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS...EXCLUSIVE OF BISCAYNE BAY.
THERE...AS WELL AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 0Z MONDAY. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS MAY
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
WATERS...BRINGING EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY
WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  53  70  51 /  80  10  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  54  71  54 /  80  10  10  10
MIAMI            80  56  72  54 /  80  10  10  10
NAPLES           72  51  66  46 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069-075.

AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ610-630.

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...13/SI

Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 17, 4:14 AM EST, 40 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
414 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2016

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
172115-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
414 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2016

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...
...STRONG WIND POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ON GULF
BEACHES, MAINLY LATE TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS: NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL MAINLY BE A LINE OF STORMS MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE GULF
COAST BETWEEN 5 AND 6 AM AND TRAVERSING SOUTH FLORIDA, AFFECTING
THE EAST COAST BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE: FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
STRONG WIND, POSSIBLY DAMAGING, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

TORNADOES: THERE IS A RISK OF TORNADOES THIS MORNING. A TORNADO
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH 8 AM.

WATERSPOUTS: THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS ACROSS ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS.

WIND: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60
MILES PER HOUR, WITH ISOLATED STORMS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ON
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS, EXCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY. FOR BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE, THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A WIND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA, AS SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS, CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAND AREAS.

FLOODING: LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT FROM TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY, A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED ALONG THE GULF COAST, WHERE A 2 FEET STORM SURGE AND
BREAKING WAVES MAY LEAD TO MINOR INUNDATION OF FLOOD-PRONE,
SENSITIVE LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HAZARDOUS RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE ON ATLANTIC BEACHES ON THURSDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE MONDAY.

MINOR COASTAL INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF COLLIER AND
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES AS AN UP TO 2 FEET STORM SURGE ARRIVES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

The radar

The Miami radar (KAMX), 111 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 10:21 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

4 thunderstorm wind, 1 coastal flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Coastal Flood, Coastal Collier County

When: January 17, 4:54 AM EST to 10:00 AM EST
Where: Coastal Collier County forecast zone
Property damage: $1,000
Reported by: Law Enforcement
Coordinates: 26.099, -81.381 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Naples Fire Rescue and Police Departments reported approximately 1 foot of standing water and floating debris at the southern end of Gordon Drive. Up to 1.5 feet of standing water was also reported along 17th Ave South, east of 4th Street South, making the roads impassable. Water receded after 10 am EST. A few docks sustained minor damage in Marco Island during the same time frame. Starting time of event based on recorded surge at Naples Pier.

This event was likely associated with a meteotsunami, which is a rapid rise in ocean levels similar to that of a tsunami, but caused by meteorological forces. In this case, the squall line moving in from the Gulf of Mexico caused a localized surface pressure disturbance which traveled east with the line until reaching the coast.

Thunderstorm Wind, Collier

When: January 17, 5:21 AM EST to 5:51 AM EST
Where: Collier County, 0.56 mi NW of Naples to 1.05 mi SSE of Immokalee
Measured: 78 kt (90 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: NWS Storm Survey
Coordinates: 26.135, -81.807

A line of severe storms moved onshore the Collier county coast, producing a 30 mile long, 2-4 mile swath of damage starting in the Naples area and ending in Immokalee.

As the line storms moved onshore, it beached several catamarans in the vicinity of Naples Pier. Extensive tree damage occurred around the Port Royal, Aqualane Shores, Royal Harbor, and Olde Naples areas near the coast; including large uprooted trees and snapped tree trunks. As the line moved further inland, boat and dock damage occurred at the Port of Naples Marina, as well as damage to a nearby construction site. Extensive tree and minor outbuilding damage occurred in and near the Naples Zoo.

To the north, several planes were damaged at the Naples Municipal Airport along with extensive tree, shed, and outbuilding damage in the vicinity of the airport. Intermittent damage occurred as the line moved further east across I-75, with more concentrated damage in the northwest portions of Golden Gate City. In addition to tree damage, numerous street signs were downed along with fence damage. Just to the northeast in Golden Gate Estates, a significant area of concentrated damage occurred with dozen of very large trees, power lines and fences downed along with heavily damaged outbuildings. Sporadic damage occurred further northeast through Orange Tree. The last area of observed damage was in the Immokalee Seminole Indian Reservation where winds damaged fences, power lines, outbuildings, and trees.

Wind gusts throughout the area of damage were 70 to 90 mph, supported by nearby measured gusts.

Thunderstorm Wind, Collier

When: January 17, 5:25 AM EST
Where: Collier County, (Apf)naples Muni Arp
Measured: 71 kt (82 mph) measured gust
Reported by: ASOS
Coordinates: 26.150, -81.780

Naples Municipal Airport measured a gust to 82 mph (71kts).

Thunderstorm Wind, Collier

When: January 17, 5:25 AM EST
Where: Collier County, 0.62 mi E of (Apf)naples Muni Arp
Measured: 73 kt (84 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 26.150, -81.770

WeatherBug station at Naples Municipal Airport recorded a gust to 84 mph (73kts).

Thunderstorm Wind, Collier

When: January 17, 5:51 AM EST
Where: Collier County, 0.69 mi S of Immokalee
Measured: 69 kt (79 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 26.410, -81.420

Gust to 79 mph (69kts) was recorded at the Seminole Tribe Reservation in Immokalee.

What these are

Coastal Flood: Flooding of coastal land by the sea, from storm surge, onshore wind or high tides.
Thunderstorm Wind: Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Florida in 2016 Every state in 2016 This day in weather history Warnings in Florida, January 2016

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 617130, 610470, 610467, 610468, 610469.