Winter Weather and Strong Wind in California, February 1, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
948 PM PST SUN JAN 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
NORCAL WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STORM LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED TO OCCUR MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORCAL
TONIGHT. MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE
THROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Energy is digging SSEwd with upper trof axis shifting Ewd into NV.
Backwash clouds and showers (mostly snow) are rotating SSWwd over
our CWA over the SErn portion of the CWA. Meanwhile...as energy
drops Swd clearing is occurring in its wake...and a cold and dry
northerly wind is blowing down the W side of the Vly. The core of
the 925 mbs winds is forecast to move from the central Sac Vly and
into the Nrn SJV after midnight...and mostly through our CWA early
Mon morning. Thus...we issued the Wind Advsry earlier with this
timing in mind. The winds at night may peak/lull most areas as the
lower levels make an attempt to decouple.

Mid-level CAA resulted in steepening lapse rates and some thunder in
the far Wrn portions of the CWA...mainly Solano Co this afternoon.
Some GS (small hail, not Golden State) was reported at KSUU...and
graupel and snow showers were reported in the foothills...namely
Paradise and Camino.  JHM

Winds will prevent fog from forming in the valley Mon...and will
become lighter Monday night as a weak system moves closer to the
region. On Tuesday the system moves over the region and may bring a
few light showers to the interior but in general most places should
remain dry most of the time.

Wednesday another system will start to move into the region late
in the day and may bring some more rain. The current timing
brings some rain in the afternoon along the coastal and northern
mountains and valley portions before bringing chances to most
everyone else during the evening hours.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)

The extended period is looking mild and generally dry. A weak
system will bring some chances of precipitation on Thursday, but
this looks relatively light and focused mainly over the northern mountains.
Computer models are in better agreement for timing with this
system, with most of the precipitation expected in the morning
hours Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, the east end of a Pacific
ridge should be building in with warming and drying conditions.
At this point there are no significant systems apparent into
early the next week, though there are early hints of a potential
return to a wet pattern later in the week.

Friday high temperatures are forecast to be above normal, and
again on Saturday. A weak system passing mainly to the north may flatten
the ridge slightly, then rebuilding on Sunday. Sunday temperatures
could potentially be quite warm, with some spots in the Sacramento
Valley in the mid to upper 60s and maybe even reaching 70. EK
&&

.AVIATION...

Wly flow alf as upr low movs thru tda vrg to Nly this aftn into tngt
as Pac upr rdg apchs. Genly VFR conds for Intr NorCal nxt 24 hrs
exc lcl MVFR/IFR/LIFR poss omtns in shwrs. Isold -tsra poss tda. Sn
lvls genly aoa 020 msl. Areas Nly sfc wnd gsts up to 30 kts poss
in Cntrl Vly aft 17z.
&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&