Drought in California, December 1 to 31, 2016

Name: Drought in California, December 1 to 31, 2016
Start: 2016-12-01T00:00
End: 2016-12-31T23:59
Location: California

December 1 to 31, 2016 · NWS HNX · 11 events in 11 counties and zones

The California drought continues during the month of December, 2016. 41 precipitation during the month.

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 11

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS HNX wrote it up.

The California drought continues during the month of December, 2016. Fresno received 2.51 of precipitation and Bakersfield received 2.41 precipitation during the month. Fresno had slightly above normal precipitation with 0.74 above normal. Bakersfield had significantly above normal precipitation with 1.39 above the normal precipitation amounts. Above normal precipitation amounts did allow for slight improvement on drought conditions with an increase in soil moisture and some reservoir recharge.

The U.S. Drought Monitor continued to report exceptional drought conditions across the entire Central California region. This extent of exceptional drought is extremely unusual for California. The general trend of below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures has continued this year.

There continues to be significant media coverage on the on-going drought conditions. These reports include discussion of significant re-allocation of water resources from the east to west side of the San Joaquin Valley, farmers forgoing planting of some crops, loss or reduction of ground water, wells drying up in several communities leaving them with no water, and an unprecedented increase in fire danger across the Southern Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains. Also, communities in Central California interior face state mandated reductions in municipal water use.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Hanford, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 30, 6:32 PM PST, 5 hours 28 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 30, 6:32 PM PST, 5 hours 28 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
632 PM PST Wed Nov 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated air quality issues.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will prevail over the Central California Interior
for the rest of this week with temperatures averaging close to
normal. Freezing overnight temperatures will occur over the Kern
County desert with a freeze possible in parts of the San Joaquin
Valley as well, especially later this week. Areas of overnight fog
and frost are likely across the San Joaquin Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunshine prevailed over Central California this Wednesday ahead of
the next storm system continues to move through the region. Fog
formed this morning and was locally dense before burning off by
mid- day. The next storm moving through the area is weakening as
it reaches Central California. Therefore, will not expect
precipitation from this next storm along with a lowered potential
for widespread dense fog. The dying cold front expected to push
through late tonight may allow for enough mixing to prevent the
formation of thick fog. Therefore, will only mention patchy fog in
the more favored area of the valley along Highway 99.

While not becoming a significant precipitation producer, the next
storm system will attempt to introduce very cold air over the
Western CONUS as a Rex Block develops over the Rockies. Models
showing very good consensus on dropping the Rex Block Low toward
Southern California by early Friday. This set-up will produce a
good meridional flow pattern from Western Canada down to Central
and possibly Southern California. The flow pattern may result in
the transport of very cold air toward the area and reaching the
district by the end of the week.

Two main concerns from this flow pattern development will be the
potential for freezing across the San Joaquin Valley and damaging
strong winds across the Central and Southern Sierra Nevada. The
orientation of the meridional flow pattern may support for a surge
of cold and dry air. Due the orientation of a jet on Thursday,
there should be no problem pushing cold air into Central
California. Therefore, a freeze watch remains in effect for Friday
and possibly Saturday morning. The cold air surge, while keeping
the coldest air to the north, will create a very strong surface
pressure gradient. Support from both the surface and aloft will
set-up a possible Mono Wind event on Friday as Northeast to East
winds could reach the 70 mph mark.

Models continue to show high confidence in placing a jet max over
Yosemite by early Friday morning when models also show a very
tight surface pressure gradient from Central Idaho to the Central
California Coast. Models also show very strong negative omega
values along the Sierra Nevada from Yosemite to Kings Canyon that
could add additional support for strong surface winds. The jet max
will be in-phase with a shallow inversion layer that should help
keep the strongest winds near the surface during the event on
Friday.

Model then show another storm clipping the Sierra Nevada near
Yosemite on Monday/Tuesday ahead of another ridge pattern and
northerly winds early next week. Most of the district will remain
dry during the early week event. By the end of next week, the
ridge pattern flattens and a zonal flow pattern moves onto the
west coast. Currently, models confine the precipitation to the
Pacific Northwest and extreme Northern California. Will keep the
district dry for most of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Areas of MVFR visibilities in haze in the San Joaquin Valley.
Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected across the central
California interior during the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Thursday December 1 2016... Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning
Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno County. Further
information is available at Valleyair.org

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday evening
CAZ096.

Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday morning
CAZ089>092.

&&

public...Molina
avn/fw...DCH
synopsis...Molina

weather.gov/hanford