Hail in Arkansas, May 30, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
645 PM CDT MON MAY 2016

.Aviation...

Area of convection continues to move NE over central AR and will
bring VFR ceilings with isolated MVFR conditions with storms.
Southern and northern Tafs will have VFR ceilings through this
evening. Convection is expected to gradually weaken and dissipate
through the evening and early overnight. Later overnight areas of
MVFR and possible isolated IFR will be seen over all of AR. Winds
will be light and variable or light from the E to SE this evening
and overnight. On Tuesday, VFR conditions will be seen after morning
MVFR. Then isolated to scattered convection is expected in the
afternoon to evening. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 300 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday

Unsettled weather will be name of the game heading into mid week.
There will be a continued chance for scattered showers and
thunderstorms as upper level impulses are ejected out ahead of a
cut-off upper H500 low located over the far desert Southwest.

Persistent southerly flow will provide ample moisture and
instability for the impulses to interact with. As such...have at
least slight to chance POPs going through the short term.

Better chances for precip will come by mid week as a cold front
approaches from the Plains state. This will bring more coverage
in showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and into Wednesday
night as covered in the long term.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Sunday

The persistent upper level low and general troughing across the SW
US will continue into the extended periods. The upper low Wed night
is expected to be located across southern NM and SW Texas. Meanwhile
a quasi-stationary front will remain in the area or just south of
the area for a few days, before a stronger cold front moves
through the area on Sunday. The stationary front will serve as a
focus for showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. As the upper
low begins to move east, the chances for showers and storms appear
to be likely for Thu and Fri, with continuing chances through at
least Sat night. Some drying is expected by late Sunday as the
next cold front moves through the State.

Since most, if not all, of AR will be north of the stationary front
during these periods, widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
It's possible that a few storms could become severe either day, with
these more likely to occur across southern areas of the state. Any
flood issues associated with potentially heavy rain during the
period should be localized in nature.

With intermittent showers and storms, considerable cloud cover and
due to the fact that the forecast area should be near or behind the
frontal boundary, temperatures should run little below seasonal
averages for this time of year.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     67  83  65  82 /  40  40  40  60
Camden AR         67  89  68  86 /  30  30  30  40
Harrison AR       63  80  63  76 /  40  40  60  60
Hot Springs AR    67  86  67  82 /  30  30  40  60
Little Rock   AR  69  87  69  86 /  30  30  40  50
Monticello AR     69  89  70  87 /  40  30  30  30
Mount Ida AR      66  85  65  81 /  30  40  50  60
Mountain Home AR  64  81  64  79 /  40  40  50  60
Newport AR        69  84  67  84 /  40  30  30  60
Pine Bluff AR     69  87  69  86 /  40  30  30  40
Russellville AR   66  85  67  81 /  30  40  50  60
Searcy AR         67  85  66  85 /  40  30  40  50
Stuttgart AR      69  87  69  87 /  40  30  30  40
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...224 / Long Term...32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
345 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-311000-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-
CALHOUN-BRADLEY-DREW-
345 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...THEN LOWERING IN COVERAGE TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MAY BE SEEN. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD ALSO BE SEEN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
OF AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM...PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY
STRONG STORMS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO...WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ANY ISSUES SHOULD BE
LOCALIZED IN NATURE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LZK.

59

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
429 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

ARZ053-062-063-066>068-302200-
CALHOUN AR-OUACHITA AR-BRADLEY AR-DALLAS AR-CLARK AR-CLEVELAND AR-
429 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CALHOUN...NORTHWESTERN BRADLEY...
SOUTHWESTERN DALLAS...SOUTHEASTERN CLARK...NORTHEASTERN OUACHITA AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CLEVELAND COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 427 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING AN AREA OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...9 MILES EAST OF CHIDESTER...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF
CAMDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SMALL HAIL FROM PEA UP TO HALF INCH AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS WILL BE SEEN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAMDEN...              WARREN...              FORDYCE...
HAMPTON...             BEARDEN...             SPARKMAN...
THORNTON...            CHIDESTER...           HARRELL...
LANARK...              WEEKS...               HIGHLAND INDUSTRIAL ...
ELLISVILLE...          HARLOW...              HAMPTON MUNICIPAL AI...
CULLENDALE...          EAST CAMDEN...         BANKS...
TINSMAN...             AMY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3330 9246 3330 9248 3332 9247 3333 9250
      3332 9252 3336 9254 3337 9259 3336 9262
      3381 9313 3409 9278 3362 9206 3329 9247
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 217DEG 32KT 3375 9287

59

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
438 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

ARZ063-064-302230-
LINCOLN AR-CLEVELAND AR-
438 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND
SOUTHEASTERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 437 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
HERBINE...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF WARREN...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HERBINE...             MT ELBA...             RYE...
PANSY...               ROWELL...              ORLANDO...
CORNERVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3371 9218 3392 9215 3392 9191 3379 9196
      3379 9197 3376 9197 3371 9199
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 196DEG 8KT 3376 9208

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
457 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

ARZ042-043-302245-
SALINE AR-GARLAND AR-
457 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL SALINE AND EAST
CENTRAL GARLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 456 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LONSDALE...OR NEAR HOT SPRINGS VILLAGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOT SPRINGS VILLAGE... OWENSVILLE...          CROWS...
BLAND...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3455 9280 3460 9294 3476 9288 3469 9267
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 206DEG 6KT 3460 9286

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
501 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

ARZ055-062-063-066-067-302230-
CALHOUN AR-OUACHITA AR-DALLAS AR-CLEVELAND AR-GRANT AR-
501 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CALHOUN...DALLAS...
SOUTHWESTERN GRANT...NORTHEASTERN OUACHITA AND WESTERN CLEVELAND
COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 459 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING AN AREA OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...7 MILES NORTH OF BEARDEN...OR 13 MILES WEST OF
FORDYCE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SMALL HAIL FROM PEA UP TO HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.  HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS WILL BE SEEN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FORDYCE...             RISON...               LEOLA...
KINGSLAND...           THORNTON...            CARTHAGE...
HARLOW...              STAVES...              RAMSEY...
HOLLY SPRINGS...       PINE GROVE...          OUACHITA...
TULIP...               CHAMBERSVILLE...       BUNN...
PRINCETON...           FARINDALE...           IVAN...
HOPEVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3364 9242 3386 9286 3420 9258 3398 9217
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 217DEG 31KT 3384 9265

59

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
517 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

ARZ044-045-302245-
PULASKI AR-LONOKE AR-
517 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL PULASKI AND
SOUTHWESTERN LONOKE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 516 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
ESTES...OR 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN LITTLE ROCK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KEO...                 TOLTEC MOUNDS STATE PARK...
SCOTT...
ESTES...               TOLTEC...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3456 9206 3460 9217 3474 9210 3468 9195
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 211DEG 5KT 3462 9208

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
536 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

ARZ056-302315-
JEFFERSON AR-
536 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY
UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 535 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PINE BLUFF. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PINE BLUFF...          WHITE HALL...          WARBRITTON...
PINE BLUFF ARSENAL...  SULPHUR SPRINGS...     WATSON CHAPEL...
HARDIN...              LADD...                PINEBERGEN...
ROB ROY...             FAITH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3409 9193 3409 9195 3407 9195 3407 9211
      3431 9216 3431 9186
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 182DEG 3KT 3412 9202

44