Hail and Damaging Winds in Nebraska, May 30, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
255 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Rain showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop across north
central Nebraska along the dry line. Thunderstorms are anticipated
to continue developing through the afternoon. As thunderstorms
encounter a more unstable atmosphere as they move eastward,
thunderstorms will become severe. These storms will expand southward
over the early evening hours as the cold front approaches the region
from the west. The greatest threat with these storms will large hail
and strong winds. Several hours of severe storms are possible as the
line slowly progresses eastward.

Storms will move out of the area around midnight as the cold front
pushes across Nebraska and the Northern Plains. Behind the front,
light showers and possibly some light fog will be possible through
8am.

Tuesday will be much drier and cooler across central Nebraska as
surface high pressure starts to build into the region. High
temperatures will top out in the low 70s on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Tuesday night through Thursday...a dry forecast is in place through
early Thursday aftn. Both the NAM and GFS show a dryline bulge
developing across Ncntl Neb late Thursday aftn with K indices near
or above 40C. MLcape rises to around 2000j/kg with shear increasing
to around 35-40kt when calculated using mixed layer and 450 mb winds.
This places the bulk richardson number around 40 supporting isolated
storms. The NAM and GFS develop some convection by 00z Thursday
evening.

A blend of the GFS...SREF and NAM models produces dew points in the
upper 50s ahead of the dry line. Bias correction lowers them to the
mid 50s. The GFS and NAM show precipitable water increasing to
between 1.00 and 1.25 inches along and east of Highway 83. This
suggests that moisture will briefly return to the Cntl Plains this
week. CONRAD indicates the cape is too low for cell regeneration so
pops are isolated and this consistent with the GFS which shows very
light QPF.

Otherwise the forecast revolves around temperatures. The new
guidance is producing lows in the upper 30s at Alliance which would
produce lows near 40 across the Wrn Sandhills. The guidance produces
highs in the lower 70s Wednesday with lower 80s Thursday. The
temperature forecast uses a blend of 4 guidance data sets plus bias
correction.

Thursday night through Monday...a cold front will sweep the fcst
area Friday. Little cooling occurs behind the front. The main
feature is dry air and Pacific high pressure which will spend the
next 4 days sinking slowly south through Cntl and Srn Plains.

A dry forecast is in place with high temperatures in the upper 70s
to lower 80s. Strong upper level ridging will be in place centered
over the Cntl Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

VFR conditions continue for the first part of the afternoon
before showers and thunderstorms develop tonight. Timing is still
a little uncertain with the line of storms this evening, but
general consensus is that storms will occur between 6pm and
midnight. Any thunderstorms will cause a reduction in visibility
and lowering of ceilings as well as gusty winds. Behind the rain
showers, light fog may be possible especially at the KLBF
terminal. VFR conditions return for Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Flooding along the North Platte River and main branch of the Platte
River will continue until further notice. Water levels are expected
to remain fairly steady over the next few days resulting in moderate
flooding to continue along the North Platte River at North Platte
and Lewellen. Minor flooding will also continue at Lisco along the
North Platte River and Brady along the main branch of the Platte
River. Although the South Platte river is not anticipated to flood
at this time, water levels will remain elevated at both Roscoe and
North Platte.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Kulik
HYDROLOGY...Kulik

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
436 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-311030-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
436 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016 /336 AM MDT MON MAY 30 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...IT WILL ENCOUNTER
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL BEING THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THREATS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR INTERESTS.

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE
RIVER AND MAIN STEM PLATTE RIVER THROUGH TONIGHT. ELEVATED RIVER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER FROM ROSCOE TO
NORTH PLATTE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW.

WATER RELEASES FROM RESERVOIRS IN WYOMING AND LAKE
MCCONAUGHY...WILL MAINTAIN MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING INTO JUNE
FROM LISCO TO NORTH PLATTE. THE PLATTE RIVER WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED NEAR BRADY WITH MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED. THE SOUTH
PLATTE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO JUNE...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT ROSCOE AND NORTH PLATTE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

CLB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
217 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

NEZ094-302100-
WESTERN CHERRY NE-
217 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY UNTIL
300 PM MDT...

AT 216 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES SOUTH OF NENZEL...OR 30 MILES WEST OF VALENTINE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KILGORE...NENZEL...ANDERSON BRIDGE STATE WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA AND
STEER CREEK CAMPGROUND.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 167 AND 175.

LAT...LON 4290 10090 4283 10090 4282 10086 4277 10085
      4276 10089 4271 10089 4266 10114 4278 10130
      4300 10102
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 247DEG 16KT 4277 10114

KULIK