An area of slow moving thunderstorms produced flash flooding across portions of Northeast Arkansas during the early afternoon hours of May 27th.
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The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
An area of slow moving thunderstorms produced flash flooding across portions of Northeast Arkansas during the early afternoon hours of May 27th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 27, 11:23 AM CST, 9 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1223 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .UPDATE...Aviation Discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1102 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/ DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this morning places an area of low pressure over southwest Kansas, a warm front over northern Missouri and southeast Kansas, and a cold front/dryline over west Texas, and an ridge of high pressure over the southeast coast of the United States. Southerly winds are continuing to advect warm and moist air up from the Gulf of Mexico with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s present across much of the Mid-South. As of 10 am CDT, temperatures across the forecast area are in the 70s at most locations. WSR-88 radar trends show the next wave of showers and thunderstorms beginning to enter portions of eastern Arkansas. Latest short term model guidance still indicates the best chances for convective activity will be across areas along and west of the Mississippi River. Will make some adjustments to pops and any other elements as needed to account for short term trends. Otherwise, the forecast overall is in great shape. Updated forecast will be available shortly. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 623 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/ DISCUSSION... Updated for 12z Aviation Discussion. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/ DISCUSSION... Currently...Upper level ridge is situated over the southeast U.S. with a closed 500 mb low moving into the central plains. Moist and unstable southwest flow continues into the region. Upper level disturbances continue to track through the region. One is moving through this morning with numerous showers and thunderstorms across Northeast Arkansas containing locally heavy rain. Today and Tonight...Over the next 24 hours the pattern will remain similar. Very moist air will flow into the region on southwest flow aloft as the closed 500 mb low tracks into Western Kansas and then north into Nebraska by Saturday morning. Several upper level disturbances will work on the moist and unstable airmass to produce showers and thunderstorms...especially along and west of the Mississippi River. Strong storms are expected mainly along and west of the Mississippi River and an isolated severe storm with damaging winds is possible this afternoon into the evening. Precipitable water values are quite high along and west of the Mississippi River...greater than 1.75 inches...and these values will continue through tonight. As a result locally heavy rain and isolated flash flooding are also a threat. High temps will range from the upper 70s over parts of Northeast Arkansas to near 90 over parts of Northeast Mississippi. Lows tonight will range from 65 to 70. The weekend...Convection will become more diurnally driven this weekend as the upper low lifts into the Upper Mississippi Valleys and heights rise a bit. Expect scattered coverage on Saturday and more isolated by Sunday. A few strong storms are possible each afternoon. Overnight hours should be mainly dry. Temps will warm to near 90 by Sunday with increasing amounts of sunshine. Overnight lows will be 65 to 70. Next week...Diurnal pattern continues into Monday with temps in the upper 80s to near 90. By the middle of the week models trend toward disagreement. The ECMWF moves an upper low across the Great lakes with upper level disturbances moving through the Mid-South and a cold front passing trough sometime Thursday. The GFS bring the main upper trough much further south which results in a slower frontal passage. Either way precipitation chances will be on the increase Tue-Thu with temps in the upper 80s to near 90...possible a little cooler by Thursday depending on where the front is. Overnight lows 65 to 70. Just beyond the forecast period a cooler and less humid period of weather is possible. SJM && .AVIATION... Convection looks lost likely at MEM and JBR this afternoon...with the strongest storms and greatest coverage likely within 2 hrs or so before and after sunset. Included TEMPO TSRA to account for this expectation. Temporary IFR conditions due to heavy rain is possible...but prevailing vis should remain VFR. Based on radar trends...prevailing thunderstorms should begin at MEM by 19Z..and MKL by 22Z. Coverage of convection should gradually diminish after sunset...but showers will likely continue overnight...and may increase in coverage again by sunrise. winds will remain southerly...generally 8-12kt with gusts to 20kt. 30 && .MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 407 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-281115- ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY- COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR- DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD- HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE- LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION- PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN- RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON- TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA- 407 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT THREAT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SJM
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1232 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1232 PM FLASH FLOOD BAY 35.74N 90.56W
05/27/2016 CRAIGHEAD AR TRAINED SPOTTER
WATER COVERING PORTIONS OF I-555 IN BAY CAUSING LANES OF
TRAFFIC TO BE CLOSED.
&&
ZDMThe Memphis radar (KNQA), 81 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:31 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Water covering portions of I-555 in Bay causing lanes of traffic to be closed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, May 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 633765.