Flash Flood and Hail in Missouri, May 27 to 28, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
337 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 336 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Short Term (Today through Sunday):

The main concern in the short term is for the potential for
additional heavy rainfall leading to or exacerbating ongoing
flooding. There is also a lesser concern for the potential for a
few strong storms tonight.

This afternoon, a shortwave which is rounding the base of an upper
level trough, centered over eastern Colorado, is lifting northward
across sern KS/swrn MO. Showers and isolated thunderstorms have
begin to develop across the area. Storms are expected to increase in
coverage and intensity as we continue into the evening hours. Shear
across the area is weak however there is a moderate amount of
instability across the area. Consequently, a few storms could become
strong but no more than perhaps an isolated severe storm is
expected. What is of a bigger concern is the continued high PWAT
values of 1.25"-1.6" that exist across the area. This will lead to
storms which will be very efficient rainfall producers. Consequently
have continued the areal flood watch through 12Z tomorrow morning,
especially considering antecedent rainfall and ongoing flooding.

This afternoon and area of severe storms is developing to the west
of the area. These storms are expected to progress eastward later
tonight and move into the in a weakened state but will provide
another shot at mod-hvy rainfall. A third round of storms will be
possible overnight as the upper level trough moves into northern
Kansas and an associated surface low lifts into the region.

The upper level trough moves into the Upper Midwest tomorrow
forcing a cold front into the area. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop with higher chances near the IA/MO border with
lower chances further south. The upper trough will finally lift
northeastward into the western Great Lakes and conditions dry out
for Saturday and Sunday. Expect highs on Sunday in the low to mid
80s.

Extended Term: (Sunday night through Friday):

The extended period continues to look unsettled. The upper level
pattern will look like a carbon copy of the set up and the beginning
of this week with a upper level trough over the southwestern CONUS
and southwesterly flow across the area. A series of shortwaves are
expected to eject out from the southwestern CONUS trough and move
towards the area from Sunday night through the middle of next week
continuing scattered thunderstorm chances. The upper level trough
finally moves out into the central Plains by Thursday and slowly
moves into the area by the end of the week continuing thunderstorm
chances. Temperatures should range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s
through the week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. Altho cig
restrictions are not expected with these storms...vis may
occasionally be reduced to 4-5SM in heavier showers. Otrw...expect
cigs btn 3-4kft thru tonight before giving way to mid-lvl clouds
tonight.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ001>004-
     011>013-020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

Discussion...73
Aviation...73

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
136 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-281845-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
136 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS ON SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
217 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S LENEXA              38.92N 94.73W
05/26/2016                   JOHNSON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            8 INCH TREE DOWN 115TH AND GREENWOOD.

0536 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW OVERLAND PARK      38.96N 94.70W
05/26/2016                   JOHNSON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            8-INCH PEAR TREE DOWN 119ST AND QUIVERA

0601 PM     TSTM WND GST     EXCELSIOR SPRINGS       39.34N 94.23W
05/26/2016  E60.00 MPH       CLAY               MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            AMATEUR RADIO REPORTED 60MPH WIND AT 92 HWY AND 69 HWY.

&&

ADOLPHSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
336 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

KSZ104-105-MOZ028-029-037-272100-
WYANDOTTE KS-JOHNSON KS-JACKSON MO-CLAY MO-PLATTE MO-
336 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WYANDOTTE...
NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON...SOUTHEASTERN PLATTE...NORTHWESTERN JACKSON AND
WESTERN CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 335 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
WESTWOOD...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KANSAS CITY...OVERLAND PARK...SHAWNEE...LENEXA...LEAWOOD...LIBERTY...
GLADSTONE...PRAIRIE VILLAGE...MERRIAM...MISSION...SMITHVILLE...
PARKVILLE...PLATTE CITY...NORTH KANSAS CITY...FAIRWAY...
MISSION HILLS...RIVERSIDE...WEATHERBY LAKE...WESTWOOD AND CLAYCOMO.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 70 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 7.
 INTERSTATE 70 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 415 AND 423.
 INTERSTATE 35 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 17.
 INTERSTATE 35 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 226 AND 235.
 INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 17.
 INTERSTATE 635 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 12.
 INTERSTATE 435 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 31 AND 61...AND BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 63 AND 64...AND NEAR MILE MARKER 69.

LAT...LON 3896 9452 3898 9475 3944 9475 3941 9440
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 186DEG 33KT 3905 9463

CUTTER