A slow moving front allowed for the training of storms that generated heavy rain and flash flooding across portions of northeast Arkansas around midday on December 26th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A slow moving front allowed for the training of storms that generated heavy rain and flash flooding across portions of northeast Arkansas around midday on December 26th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 26, 11:47 AM CST, 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1147 AM CST Mon Dec 26 2016 .UPDATE... Updated for 18Z TAF issuance. && .PREV DISCUSSION /958 AM CST Mon Dec 26 2016/ A quasi-stationary band of showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect northeast AR over the next several hours, providing localized heavy rainfall to areas north and west of Jonesboro. This activity is expected to eventually begin moving southeast as a cold front to the west overtakes this convection during the afternoon and evening hours. Rainfall chances were trimmed back over the southeast half of the CWA today and ramped up over the northwest. A few strong storms aren't out of the question this afternoon, especially west of the Mississippi River. CAPE values do not look substantial, but moderate effective shear may support organized convection capable of gusty winds. The bigger threat, at least in the near term, is the potential for localized flooding due to the training of these convective cells. MRMS QPE indicates a narrow band of 1-2" of rain already over western Clay County. However, once this convection begins to shift to the southeast, this threat should diminish somewhat. In addition to the PoP update, temperature were adjusted slightly upward in a few areas for this afternoon and winds were increased a bit. Many areas are gusting between 20-30 mph, with a few higher gusts. Johnson PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 301 AM CST Mon Dec 26 2016/ DISCUSSION... Skies are cloudy over much of the forecast area early this morning with temperatures in the 60s. A few light rain showers are moving across mainly northern sections of the forecast area at this time. A cold front was currently extending from central Iowa through western Missouri and into central Texas. As the cold front continues to move east today, it should get close to the forecast area by this evening. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front and move across the forecast area. There could be a strong thunderstorm that moves across portions of eastern Arkansas or the Missouri bootheel. Temperatures will remain well above normal today with highs in the low to mid 70s. By tonight, the cold front will start to move across the forecast area and should be across north Mississippi by Tuesday morning. This will mean more showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front. Cooler air will start to move into the region behind the front with lows Tuesday morning in the mid 40s to mid 50s. The cold front will continue to move south of Tuesday so there will still be a chance of rain over southern sections of the forecast area. Temperatures will be some 15 to 20 degrees cooler than today with highs mainly in the 50s. By Tuesday night, high pressure will briefly settle over the region bringing a period of dry weather. Temperatures will be close to normal levels with lows Wednesday morning in the lower 30s to around 40 degrees. On Wednesday, the front will move back north as a warm front. As a result, more showers will return to the forecast area. Temperatures will warm up some on Wednesday with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. On Wednesday night, a new cold front will sweep through the region bringing more showers to the forecast area. This front will be well east of the forecast area by Thursday morning with rain ending over eastern sections in the morning. Cooler air will return to the region with temperatures returning to more seasonal levels. High pressure will build into the region by Thursday night bringing dry weather and seasonal temperatures for Thursday night and much of Friday. A weak warm front will move through the region on Saturday. More rain is expected to move through the forecast area starting late Friday night and continuing through much of the last day of 2016. Another cold front will approach the region on New Years Day with more rain expected. ARS && .AVIATION... /18Z TAFs/ Surface front and band of SHRA/TSRA moving slowly SE across NE AR. Latest HRRR runs look to have a good handle on movement and timing. The band should reach KJBR area around 19-20Z, KMEM around 27/01- 02Z, KMKL roughly 27/02-03Z, and KTUP around 27/08-09Z. Ahead of SHRA/TSRA, cigs should drop to lower MVFR/IFR with southerly winds continuing. Cigs and vsbys to further drop at sites as SHRA/TSRA band moves across, with variable/gusty winds in TSRA. Surface front passage will bring an end to the TSRA, turn winds to the north, and bring gradually improving cigs. GW && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 910 AM CST MON DEC 26 2016 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-271200- ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY- COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR- DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD- HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE- LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION- PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN- RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON- TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA- 910 AM CST MON DEC 26 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. JOHNSON
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 114 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:52 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Water covering the road on Highway 34 west.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, December 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 669913.