High pressure across northeastern Arizona and low pressure over southwestern Arizona created a tight pressure gradient primarily across central Arizona. Breezy to windy conditions were observed across the Mogollon Rim and points south as a result.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
High pressure across northeastern Arizona and low pressure over southwestern Arizona created a tight pressure gradient primarily across central Arizona. Breezy to windy conditions were observed across the Mogollon Rim and points south as a result.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 25, 2:59 AM MST, 1 hour 49 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 259 AM MST SUN SEP 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Expect dry and mild conditions to persist today, with locally gusty northeast winds. Starting Monday, low pressure moving in from Mexico will bring in more moisture resulting in a chance for showers and thunderstorms for much of next week. && .DISCUSSION...Low pressure aloft was beginning to spin up over northwest Mexico early this morning as per water vapor satellite imagery. At the same time, high pressure was building in over California and Nevada also evident in the water vapor imagery. The overall setup with high pressure to the northwest and low pressure to the south will result in dry conditions and locally gusty northeast to east winds today and tonight, especially along the Mogollon Rim and locations south. Otherwise, look for seasonable temperatures and mainly clear skies. From Monday onward...The weak low over northwest portions of Mexico will slowly wobble to a position over the California/Arizona border before being absorbed by the general flow and moving to the northeast. In response to the position of the low locally gusty east and then southeast winds will develop on Monday and Tuesday becoming south to southwest starting Wednesday as the low moves out of the area. The southeast flow from Monday night into Tuesday will draw moisture across Arizona. The increasing moisture will combine with weak upward motion forced by a passing jet stream max to produce a decent shot at scattered showers and thunderstorms. Moisture will then linger on Wednesday and for much of the week with at least a slight chance of showers and storms continuing. Otherwise, seasonable temperatures will remain under partly to mostly cloudy skies. && .AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions with mostly clear skies through the 24hr TAF period. Locally gusty north to northeast winds along and south of the Mogollon Rim this morning will spread to all areas this afternoon. While some locations will turn calm again tonight, many locations (especially along and south of the Mogollon Rim) will continue to experience N-NE gusts through the night. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...KD For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The RAWS site 7 SSE of Crown King reported a gust of 62 mph at 4:48 AM MST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, September 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 659828.