Scattered thunderstorms moved east across southeast Arizona. Some storms were severe and produced large hail and damaging winds in Tucson and Oracle.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms moved east across southeast Arizona. Some storms were severe and produced large hail and damaging winds in Tucson and Oracle.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 12, 1:37 PM MST, 30 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 137 PM MST MON SEP 12 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Increased moisture will result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly from the Tucson area eastward today. Enough residual moisture for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday, then generally dry with the exception being near the New Mexico border where a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue. Temperatures will fall to slightly below average values for mid September this week. && .DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed pretty much as expected late this morning and early afternoon. Given the fairly unidirectional SW flow at 15-25 kts through the column, the storms are moving to the northeast and much quicker than we are used to in the monsoon. We've seen some signs of training storms early this afternoon, particularly around Dudleyville and in western Cochise County where some spots had 0.50" to 1.50" based on radar estimates. Storms are now just starting to increase around the Tucson metro area. Given the moderately unstable atmosphere with MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/KG some of these storms could be strong with even a severe storm or two with gusty winds and small hail. Rain will be a concern as well, mainly for areas that see multiple rounds of thunderstorms. Our latest thinking is that most individual cells will generally produce half an inch or less, but each area is susceptible to seeing two or three cells, thus localized rain totals of 1 to 2 inches could cause a few flooding issues. The thunderstorms should diminish fairly quickly this evening with the loss of daytime heating. The continuation of the fall transition pattern will occur on Tuesday as troughing will continue to dig into the Southwestern CONUS with height falls over the region. We're still looking at southwesterly flow aloft across the area with marginal moisture /PWAT values near 1 inch/ to result in a slight chance of thunderstorms for much of the area on Tuesday. By Wednesday and Thursday, the westerly flow will transport in drier air for the region. We still can't rule out an isolated storm right along the New Mexico border on Wednesday. Otherwise, broad troughing will continue into the weekend with some differences between the models regarding a potential cutoff low by Saturday and Sunday. This shouldn't have much of an impact for us as the atmosphere will remain dry. Although, some moisture can push into far eastern areas from New Mexico which is something we'll be keeping our eye on. Temperatures will generally be slightly below normal through the forecast period. && .AVIATION...Valid through 14/00Z. Sctd -SHRA/TSRA across most of SE AZ thru 13/03z moving ENE. Local MVFR conds psbl nr strong storms along with winds in excess of 40 kts. Conds improving/clearing aft 13/03z. Outside of strong thunderstorm outflows, surface winds generally under 12kts thru pd. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Scattered showers and thunderstorms ending after sunset. Strong outflow winds with any storms. Tuesday and Wednesday the coverage of thunderstorms will be less and mainly farther east, primarily zones 152 and 153. Thursday onward much drier air invades the area bringing an end to the thunderstorms and resulting in much lower humidities. Not including thunderstorm outflows, winds through the period will generally be 15 mph or less except for zone 150 on Tuesday where southerly winds around 20 mph are expected in the afternoon. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && Lader Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 1147 AM MST MON SEP 12 2016 AZZ506-121930- SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY INCLUDING KEARNY/MAMMOTH/ORACLE- 1147 AM MST MON SEP 12 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY UNTIL 1230 PM MST... AT 1145 AM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DUDLEYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... DUDLEYVILLE AND ARAVAIPA CREEK PRESERVE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. && LAT...LON 3283 11075 3294 11079 3299 11059 3283 11055 TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 268DEG 9KT 3290 11069
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 1245 PM MST MON SEP 12 2016 AZZ506-122030- SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY INCLUDING KEARNY/MAMMOTH/ORACLE- 1245 PM MST MON SEP 12 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR UNTIL 130 PM MST... AT 1243 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF DUDLEYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. HALF INCH HAIL, HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES MAY DEVELOP AS THIS IS THE SECOND STRONG STORM WITH HEAVY RAIN THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE SAME AREA SINCE 1145 AM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ARAVAIPA CREEK PRESERVE AND DUDLEYVILLE. LAT...LON 3283 11077 3287 11079 3296 11065 3285 11060 TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 252DEG 8KT 3287 11073
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 148 PM MST MON SEP 12 2016 AZZ502-504-514-122130- TUCSON METRO AREA INCLUDING TUCSON/GREEN VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL-TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION INCLUDING SELLS-SANTA CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS INCLUDING MOUNT LEMMON/SUMMERHAVEN- 148 PM MST MON SEP 12 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM MST... AT 147 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TUCSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TUCSON...TUCSON ESTATES...FLOWING WELLS...TANQUE VERDE... LITTLETOWN...DREXEL-ALVERNON...DREXEL HEIGHTS...VALENCIA WEST... SUMMIT...CASAS ADOBES...SOUTH TUCSON...RYAN FIELD... CATALINA FOOTHILLS...SEVEN FALLS...RITA RANCH...SAN XAVIER MISSION... DAVIS-MONTHAN AIR FORCE BASE...SABINO CANYON... TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND SAGUARO NATIONAL PARK EAST. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. && LAT...LON 3201 11112 3225 11122 3243 11072 3212 11069 TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 241DEG 13KT 3219 11099 GL
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 201 PM MST MON SEP 12 2016 AZZ508-512-513-122130- EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET INCLUDING DOUGLAS/WILLCOX-DRAGOON/MULE/HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BISBEE/CANELO HILLS/MADERA CANYON-CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING CHIRICAHUA NATIONAL MONUMENT- 201 PM MST MON SEP 12 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM MST... AT 200 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SUNIZONA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... RUCKER CANYON...SUNIZONA...MCNEAL...ELFRIDA AND PEARCE-SUNSITES. LAT...LON 3154 10980 3200 10984 3205 10939 3155 10929 TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 264DEG 23KT 3186 10970 GL
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 37 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:08 UTC.
2 hail, 2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Hail up to 1 inch in diameter occurred for a time near along Kolb Road near Escalante Rd, 29th St, and Golf Links Rd. One home near Kolb Rd and 29th St sustained damage when hail broke 5 double-paned skylights.
Thunderstorm winds uprooted a tree near Golf Links Rd and Prudence Rd.
Golfball size hail was reported in Oracle.
A large tree fell on a mobile home near Flowing Wells Rd and Wetmore Road causing damage. The tree was dead and had little root system. An 81-yr old woman and her cat were rescued by fire fighters but were uninjured.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, September 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 659792, 661603, 659793, 659795.