Arizona, 2016

Wildfire in Arizona, May 29 to 31, 2016

May 29 to 31, 2016 · NWS FGZ · 1 event in 1 county or zone

The Jack Fire started with a lightning strike near Happy Jack about 50 miles southeast of Flagstaff. This fire was allowed to burn as a natural part of this ecosystem within a predetermined area.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.

The Jack Fire started with a lightning strike near Happy Jack about 50 miles southeast of Flagstaff. This fire was allowed to burn as a natural part of this ecosystem within a predetermined area.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 29, 10:05 AM MST, 3 hours 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 29, 10:05 AM MST, 3 hours 10 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1005 AM MST SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Just enough moisture will linger through the coming
week a very slight chance of showers or thunderstorms each day.
Near normal temperatures are expected through Tuesday, then the
warmest weather so far this year is likely by the middle of the
week and into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Southwest flow ahead of an upper low near Los
Angeles has pushed drier mid-level air into much of the region
today. Limited moisture still remains over the northern portions of
the state. Spotty mid-level convection will be possible in these
areas by the afternoon, with flat cumulus or sunny skies elsewhere.
Expect similar conditions on Monday as the low slowly moves toward
Arizona. Temperatures today and Monday will also stay relatively
unchanged as hghts fall slightly.

This low will move through the area Tuesday and Wednesday with just
enough mid-level moisture to bring a slight chance of high-based
convection back to many areas. Hghts rise significantly by the end
of the week, bringing the this years warmest temperatures to date.
The increased surface heating and continued presence of limited mid-
level moisture will keep a slight chance of high-based convection in
the forecast through the end of the forecast period.

All trends look good, no updates needed.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Expect VFR conditions for the next
24 hours. Isold -shra/-tsra from 18Z-02Z over the higher terrain
north of a KGCN-KRQE line. Some convection could produce sfc wnd
gusts to 35kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...There is a slight chance of light showers and
thunderstorms today and again Monday, generally over the higher
terrain north of Interstate 40. Erratic and gusty winds possible
near storms.

Tuesday through Thursday...Only isolated showers and thunderstorms
are expected over the higher terrain, with relatively light winds.
Expect minimum RH below 15 percent most areas.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.

Wildfire, Eastern Mogollon Rim

When
May 29, 1:15 PM MST to May 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Eastern Mogollon Rim forecast zone
Reported by
Park/Forest Service
Coordinates
35.620, -111.045 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Lightning started the Jack Fire near Happy Jack in a ponderosa forest on May 29 around 115 PM. This ecosystem is fire adapted and the fire was allowed to burn within a set boundary. The fire burned about 500 acres in May and reached a final size of 33,850 acres by June 24 when progression stopped.

What these are

Wildfire
A fire burning in wildland vegetation, with its acreage and damage where known.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Arizona in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, May 2016

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 632559.