Wildfire in Arizona, June 1 to 24, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
937 PM MST TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system moving through the Southwest
Region will continue to produce a few high based showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the mountain regions of northern
Arizona. A high pressure ridge will move in from the West on
Wednesday with weather conditions trending towards a drier and
warmer forecast through Thursday. Much warmer weather will
continue from Thursday through the weekend, with summer-like
temperatures running 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time
of the year. Strong and gusty southwesterly winds return on Monday
as a weak low moves into Nevada.

&&

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the update this evening as the current
forecast appears on track. Some lingering showers will keep a
slight chance of precipitation mainly along the Mogollon Rim.
Expect drying and warming conditions to begin tomorrow and
develop through the remainder of the week.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /307 PM MST/...A weak upper level low will keep
low chances for a few high based showers and thunderstorms in our
northern Arizona forecast through Wednesday afternoon. High based
showers may lead to erratic gusty surface winds in the afternoon
near thunderstorms. On Wednesday, a high pressure ridge will move
into Arizona from the West starting a drying and warming trend.

Thursday through Sunday...Expect a drier weather pattern summer-
like temperatures running 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this
time of the year. These hot afternoon temperatures along with dry
moisture levels in the lower atmosphere will create very unstable
conditions each day. Winds will be light northerlies through
Saturday, then switching back to southwesterly on Sunday as the
ridge drifts east and another weak low moves into southern
California.

Monday and Tuesday...Stronger gusty southwesterly winds, above
normal temperatures and dry humidity levels are forecast for this
period as a weak low passes eastward through Nevada and Utah.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Look for isolated high-based
showers and thunderstorms mainly southeast of a Payson to Window
Rock line. Activity will diminish after 02z. Another round of high-
based storms is in store for Wednesday along and south of a
Flagstaff to Window Rock line. Erratic surface wind gusts to 35
knots are possible in the vicinity of storms or showers. Otherwise,
light surface winds. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Low pressure will move into northern Mexico on
Wednesday with just enough lingering moisture for high-based storms
and showers primarily over far eastern Arizona. Gusty outflow winds
should be expected from thunderstorms. For Thursday, high pressure
will begin to build into Arizona from the west and thus a period of
warmer temperatures and drier conditions will start.

Friday through Sunday...High pressure will continue to build.
Daytime temperatures will climb to the hottest so far this year.
Relative humidity values are likely to drop into the single digit
range each afternoon. Winds will remain light through a deep layer
on Friday and Saturday but strengthen and become more southwesterly
on Sunday.

Gusty southwest winds are possible next Monday with warm and dry
conditions remaining in place.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...Suk/Bohlin
AVIATION...Suk
FIRE WEATHER...Suk

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff