The wettest and coldest in a series of Pacific storms systems moved into Arizona on January 7th and produced heavy mountain snow. Snow amounts across much of the higher terrain of Southeast Arizona above 7000 feet was in excess of 1 foot.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.
The wettest and coldest in a series of Pacific storms systems moved into Arizona on January 7th and produced heavy mountain snow. Snow amounts across much of the higher terrain of Southeast Arizona above 7000 feet was in excess of 1 foot. Valley rainfall amounts averaged from 0.50 to 1.25 inches in the Tucson area, which caused some minor flooding of low-lying areas and road closures.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 7, 9:19 AM MST, 41 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
919 AM MST THU JAN 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT...
THEN SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE CATALINA MOUNTAINS NEAR
TUCSON. A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
WITH BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST STILL LOOKED ON TRACK AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW
WAS PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION HAD
ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA...
SO JUST A MATTER TO TIME UNTIL IT SPREADS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS
OF THE STATE. NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 08/18Z.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS 7-10K FT MSL WITH VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF KTUS THIS MORNING AND EXPANDING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. MOUNTAINS MOSTLY OBSCURED ABOVE 5000 FEET MSL DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PCPN. BRIEF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WITH THIS PRECIPITATION.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 08/02Z. SURFACE WIND
BECOMING SWLY 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
COCHISE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND EASING AFTER 08/02Z BECOMING SW-
W 10 KTS OR LESS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO
THE EVENING FOR THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...WITH ANOTHER
PERIOD OF SHOWERS FRIDAY MAINLY ZONES 152 AND 153. DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A VERY MODEST WARMING TREND WILL
THEN PREVAIL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR TODAY...OTHERWISE 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN
DRIVEN AND MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...A BROAD SCALE UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER THE
WESTERNCONTIGUOUS STATES THIS MORNING. 07/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC AND
THEIRRESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DEPICT THIS UPPER TROUGH TO
DEEPEN OVER THE SWRN CONUS TODAY...AND A 542 DM CLOSED LOW IS
PROGGED TO BE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY FRI MORNING. THERE
STILL APPEARS TO BE BE TWO DISTINCT IMPULSES OR JET/VORT MAXIMA TO
MOVE THRU THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ACROSS THIS FORECAST
INTO FRI.
THE FIRST IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN THE
SECOND SYSTEM...WITH THE PERIOD FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIP EXPECTED TO
OCCUR GENERALLY THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
SECOND IMPULSE IS THEN PROGGED TO BRING ADDITIONAL VALLEY RAIN/
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FRI...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN SECTIONS.
HOWEVER...LIQUID AMOUNTS AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MARKEDLY
LESS VERSUS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
BASED ON THESE SOLUTIONS...ONLY FAIRLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE
TO THE INHERITED GRIDDED DATA POP/WEATHER/QPF/SNOW ACCUM FIELDS.
THUS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING...THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE SHARPLY ESPECIALLY WEST OF
TUCSON LATE TONIGHT...THEN GENERALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL
MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON FRI.
SNOW LEVELS AROUND NOON TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 5500 FEET ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS TO 6000 FEET NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT
SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS BY MIDDAY FRI ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM AROUND 4000 FEET ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TO 4500
FEET ACROSS THE CATALINA/RINCON MOUNTAINS...AND TO AROUND 5000 FEET
ACROSS THE FAR SERN MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THAT THESE SOLUTIONS YIELDED
ONLY FAIRLY LIGHT LIQUID/SNOW AMOUNTS AFTER 18Z FRI...THE ENDING
PERIOD OF THE INHERITED WINTER STORM WARNING WAS CHANGED.
THUS...THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM MST FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THRU FRI MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM
10-14 INCHES...PARTICULARLY ABOVE 7000 FEET. SOME HIGHER PEAKS MAY
HAVE TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS APPROACHING 2 FEET BY EARLY SAT MORNING.
MEANWHILE...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE CATALINA/RINCON/GALIURO/PINALENO MOUNTAINS FROM 11 AM THIS
MORNING TO 5 AM MST FRIDAY ABOVE 7000 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8-
12 INCHES SHOULD OCCUR ABOVE 7000 FEET...AND SOME OF THE HIGHEST
PEAKS MAY HAVE EVEN HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE 5000-6000 FOOT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXISTS ACROSS ERN SECTIONS FRI
NIGHT. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOORS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AREA-WIDE SAT...THEN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS NORTH OF TUCSON SAT NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS EXISTS
SUN AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
WORTHY TO NOTE THAT THE 07/00Z ECMWF DEPICTED PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUN. THIS SOLUTION IS MARKEDLY DRIER VERSUS
SOLUTIONS FROM 24-48 HOURS AGO. AT ANY RATE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE MON-WED. THE 07/06Z GFS AND 07/00Z ECMWF
SUGGEST THAT A STRONGER UPPER LOW MAY BRING PRECIP BACK TO THE AREA
LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THAT PERIOD IS BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.
A COOLING TREND WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO FRI...AND HIGH TEMPS FRI ARE
FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE ABOUT 15 DEGS F BELOW NORMAL AREA-WIDE. A
VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT DAYTIME TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM MST FRIDAY
FOR AZZ510.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM MST
FRIDAY FOR AZZ511-514 ABOVE 7000 FEET.
&&
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
PREV DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIAThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 winter storm, 1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Reports of 12 to 14 inches of snow were common across Northern Greenlee County including the Hannagan Meadow area.
Eighteen inches of snow occurred on Mt. Graham in the Pinaleno mountains of Graham County.
Heavy snow of 12 to 18 inches occurred on Mount Lemmon including around the village of Summerhaven.
Heavy rain of generally between 0.50 and 1.25 inches during the afternoon of January 7 caused multiple road closures across Pima County, including parts of the Tucson metro. One car stalled near the intersection of Lee St. and Santa Rosa Ave in approximately 6 inches of water during the rush hour. About 12 hours later, 2 people became stranded in their vehicle after it became stuck in a running wash on Limberlost Road just west of Soldier Trail just before dawn on January 8. No injuries or fatalities occurred.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, January 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 607250, 607251, 607252, 616374.