High Wind in Alaska, September 11 to 12, 2016

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
618 AM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2016

Corrected snow amounts in the discussion for the Arctic Slope
and northern slopes of the Brooks Range

.DISCUSSION...

Upper air...
An upper level ridge extending from the eastern Alaska interior
southward into the Gulf of Alaska will move eastward to extend
from the Yukon Territory southward by late tonight, then push on
farther eastward into Canada by Monday night with the ridge top
tipping over and flattening. A weak residual ridge will remain
over the Brooks Range and the northeastern Alaska interior
through Tuesday then break down by Wednesday as broad troughing
expands eastward across northern Alaska. A weak trough over the
Gulf of Anadyr will deepen into an upper low over the northern
Bering Sea by early Monday morning, then weaken over the eastern
Seward Peninsula and Kotzebue Sound by early Tuesday morning with
broad but weak troughing expanding eastward across northern
Alaska. A somewhat stronger upper level trough extending from the
central Arctic Coast to Norton Sound will gradually redevelop by
late Wednesday night, with southwesterly flow redeveloping across
the Alaska Range and the eastern interior. The upper troughing
will contribute to the development of widespread precipitation
over much of northern Alaska.

Surface...
A 995 mb low centered 500 nm north of the Mackenzie River Delta
will weaken to a 1000 mb low near northwestern Banks Island by
late tonight, then redevelop into a 986 mb low centered 400 nm
east of Banks Island by late Monday night. A weak 995 mb low will
develop near the Pribilofs this morning then deepen to a 991 mb
low over the northern Nulato Hills by Monday afternoon. The
low will weaken to a 1000 mb center near Huslia by Tuesday
afternoon.

Arctic Slope and northern slopes of the Brooks Range...
Scattered areas of light snow over the farther inland areas and
the Brooks Range will gradually become more widespread tonight
through Monday and continue through Tuesday night as moisture
spreads northward across the northern Alaska mainland. Total
snow amounts of 1 to 8 inches are expected Monday through Monday
night with and additional 1 to 5 inches Tuesday through Tuesday
night. The heaviest amounts are expected to be at higher
elevations in the Brooks Range. Snow amounts along and near the
coast are expected to be about an inch or less.

Interior...
Precipitation will develop along the southern slopes of the
Alaska Range and the upper Kuskokwim valley today, spreading
northward over most of the interior by late tonight. Areas just to
the north of the Alaska range will see little or no precipitation.
The precipitation will be snow along the south slopes of the
Brooks Range, with amounts of 4 to 8 inches possible Monday
through Monday night and another 1 to 3 inches Tuesday to Tuesday
night. At lower elevations in the Brooks Range the precipitation
may be rain, snow, or mixed rain and snow. Farther to the south
the precipitation is expected to be rain, except for high
elevation areas in the Alaska Range where the precipitation will
be snow. Mixed rain and snow will be possible at some high
elevation areas elsewhere in the interior. The chance of rain
will gradually decrease in the western interior Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Gusty southerly winds are beginning to spin up in
Alaska Range passes. The strongest winds are expected to occur
between 4 pm this afternoon and 10 pm Sunday, with gusts 40 to 60
mph in and near passes and drainages out of the eastern Alaska
Range, Wind gusts to 50 mph are expected in areas in and near
Windy Pass.

West coast...
Rain will spread northward over the Yukon delta today, spreading
to most areas from the Seward Peninsula southward tonight, with
a chance of rain elsewhere. Rain continuing over most areas from
the Seward Peninsula southward through Monday evening, with a
chance of rain elsewhere.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch occurring over some areas
of the interior through Tuesday night could cause rises
on some small rivers and streams. Rainfall amounts are not
expected to be large enough to create any flooding or
high water issues.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ226.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ205-AKX206.

&&

RF SEP 16