Alaska, 2016Flood in Alaska, July 28 to 29, 2016
July 28 to 29, 2016 · NWS AJK · 1 event in 1 county or zone
A low pressure system moved out of the North Pacific and drifted into the Northwest Gulf of Alaska by July 27. The low pressure remained there and weakened through the next few days.
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- $4,000
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
A low pressure system moved out of the North Pacific and drifted into the Northwest Gulf of Alaska by July 27. The low pressure remained there and weakened through the next few days. The associated weather front moved over the Eastern Gulf of Alaska on the 28th and then over the panhandle and into Western Canada by the 29th. This weather front tapped into some sub-tropical moisture and moved that moisture over an already moist Southeast Alaska. Over a 2 day period the northern inner channels received two to five inches of rainfall. Also there was very high freezing levels that increased runoff from snow and ice melt. This front affected the area right after another very moist weather front was exiting the area and the soils were very saturated before the heavy to moderate rain began to fall. The wet antecedent conditions along with the runoff from the rainfall produced moderate flooding along the Chilkoot trail, part of the Klondike Gold Rush National Historical Park, near Dyea. The river crested around seventeen point fifty three feet which is above moderate flood stage of seventeen feet in the late morning on July 28.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 27, 1:18 PM AKST, 12 hours 42 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 27, 1:18 PM AKST, 12 hours 42 minutes before
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
218 PM AKDT WED JUL 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...WV imagery showed a midlevel impulse ejecting
northeastward across the gulf during Wednesday afternoon. Strong
ascent downstream from this feature, combined with increasing
southerly moisture flux, is aiding in the development of moderate
to heavy rainfall over the northern half of the panhandle. Model
guidance shows the rain persisting through Wednesday night...and
then subsiding to light showery activity during Thursday. In
addition, modest destabilization is forecast to occur close to the
upper disturbance, which will support a slight chance of
thunderstorms tonight over marine zones 51 and 52, as well as land
areas west of Yakutat.
Meanwhile, a compact surface low will linger over the northern
gulf during the next 24 hours. As a result, small craft wind
speeds will continue over the outer waters during most of the
night...eventually becoming confined to zone 52 during Thursday as
a second boundary layer wind maxima rotates northward into the
area. Over the inner channels, sustained southerly winds from
15-20 kt are probable during the night...and then subsiding by
Thursday afternoon. The one exception will be Northern Lynn Canal,
where speeds to 20 kt will continue into the afternoon as the
pressure gradient tightens in response to pressure falls over the
Yukon. Gusty south-southwesterly winds will also develop in
Skagway during Thursday.
Previous forecast appeared to be on track. Minor changes were made
using a blend of coarse and hi-res guidance.
.LONG TERM...Weakening low and upper trof will move across the
area Thu night through Fri night. Weak upper ridge should move
across the area from the west Sat-Sun. After that, looks like an
upper low will move across the gulf and close to the area for
early next week, but the models differ on handling this feature
so confidence in forecast lowers somewhat next week.
With the weakening low/trof coming in for Thu night-Fri
night, will have some showers continuing, but they will begin to
diminish from the northwest late Fri and Fri night as system moves
further inland. The weak ridge will help further diminish shower
activity over the weekend but there will be some onshore flow in
lower levels so clouds and isolated showers will probably remain
especially at higher elevations. The precip threat may increase
again early next week due to upper low, but due to model
differences, not going for above chance POPs at this point.
Did nudge some max temps upward a bit for Sun-Wed based on model
trends. MOS was suggesting even higher temps by a few more
degrees, but this will depend on how much cloud cover and precip
is around with the upper low.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...Moderate to heavy rainfall will continue across the
northern half of the panhandle Wednesday night, and then subside
during Thursday. Area streams, rivers, and lakes will experience
rising water levels as a result...including the Taiya River near
Skagway, which is forecast to reach moderate flood stage during
Wednesday night. Refer to the latest flood warning statement for
additional information.
&&
.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Flood Warning for AKZ018 until 1 AM Fri.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ052.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-042-043-051.
Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.
&&
Garner/RWT
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/JuneauFlood, Taiya Inlet
- When
- July 28, 2:00 AM AKST to July 29, 2:00 AM AKST
- Where
- Taiya Inlet County, 2.54 mi NW of Skagway to 10.31 mi NW of Skagway
- Cause
- Heavy Rain / Snow Melt
- Property damage
- $4,000
- Reported by
- Official NWS Observations
- Coordinates
- 59.480, -135.343
Five days after a very wet weather system moved over the northern inner channels another moist front moved over the area. The weather system moved over the northern inner channels of Southeast Alaska on July 28th. Rain amounts ranged from three quarters of an inches near sea level with amounts as high as two inches in the headwaters of the Taiya River. There was very warm temperatures associated with the front which created high freezing levels and increase runoff from snow or ice melt. Rain moved over the area on July 27th and the Taiya River started to rise in the afternoon. The river continue to rise steadily for the next eighteen hours and went above minor flood stage of sixteen point five feet in the early morning of the 28th and six hours later went above moderate flood stage of seventeen. The river finally crested at seventeen point fifty-three feet in the late morning on the 27th. The Taiya River slowly receded through the next eighteen hours and was below minor flood stage by the early morning of July 29th. The National Park Service reported that there was significant flooding along the Chilkoot trail with waist deep water at the lower portions of the trail and closed the trail for a period of time due to safety concerns.
- Flood
- Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Lightning Strikes in Illinois, July 28, 20161 death · 2 injured · 3 events
- Heat in North Carolina, July 28, 20161 death · 1 event
- Tornado and Flood in Kansas, July 28, 2016$1.6 million · EF0 · 41 events
- Heat in New Jersey, July 28, 201617 injured · 1 event
- Wildfire in Wyoming, July 28 to 31, 20161 injured · $500,000 · 1 event
- Damaging Winds in Kansas, July 28, 2016$155,000 · 66 kt wind · 7 events
- Flash Flooding and Lightning Strike in Louisiana, July 28, 2016$130,000 · 5 events
- Flash Flooding and Hail in Colorado, July 28, 20162.5 in hail · 45 events
- Flash Flood in Kentucky, July 28, 2016$50,000 · 1 event
- Flash Flood and Damaging Wind in Missouri, July 28, 2016$43,000 · 52 kt wind · 2 events
- Damaging Winds in Virginia, July 28, 2016$23,000 · 50 kt wind · 15 events
- Damaging Winds and Lightning Strikes in Maryland, July 28, 2016$23,000 · 50 kt wind · 5 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 640198.