A very strong Bering Sea low on 12/24 spawned a strong frontal system that raced across the Gulf to slam SE with another heavy snow event. This was a typical case of warm moist air overrunning cold air at the surface.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
A very strong Bering Sea low on 12/24 spawned a strong frontal system that raced across the Gulf to slam SE with another heavy snow event. This was a typical case of warm moist air overrunning cold air at the surface. Snowfall ranged from 1 to 2 FT. The only impact was intense snow removal.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 25, 3:26 PM AKST, 2 hours 34 minutes earlier.
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
326 PM AKST Sun Dec 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...We have upgraded the statements today continuing on
new paradigms developed last night. Storm force front and
overrunning snow has already begun from Yakutat to Haines to
Gustavus to Angoon and even down to Ketchikan. The rain-snow line
lies precariously along the coast and will make greatest headway
from Dixon Entrance to Sumner Strait but little headway inland
outside of Sitka. Offshore winds in the boundary layer and stable
conditions have limited wind speeds across the Interior and
portions of the coast. As a result, we think the central
Panhandle's temperatures will stall any rises late this afternoon
and this evening. These temperatures will effectively lock in snow
from Wrangell/Petersburg/Kake north into Angoon, Hoonah, Gustavus,
and Juneau through tonight. Another feature will help
precipitation persist as snow for the central and northern
Panhandle Monday.
A developing low identified yesterday is now progged to move into
Cape Decision Monday. Due to the fact that the NAM has not been
consistent with this feature and still pushes it much farther
south, we could not adopt its higher resolution precipitation
fields. Thus, we relied on GFS and ECMWF data with less detail
and more broadscale ideas. Once the front stalls across the
Panhandle tonight, the new low will concentrate more precipitation
over the south. And more impactfully, a deformation band develops
across the central Panhandle tomorrow. With very light northerly
gradients, an implied offshore flow in the low levels, and
enhanced uplift all ahead of this feature, we are moderately
confident that snow rates will increase again tomorrow for much of
the central Panhandle. Based on this information, we upgraded the
advisory for Petersburg/Wrangell/Kake to Warning from 6 PM tonight
to 6 PM Monday for 7 to 14 inches of snow. Haines and Gustavus,
underneath a deeper cold air layer, will see higher snow ratios from
the system tonight and thus more amounts than expected this
morning. Therefore, we will issue new warnings this area. Finally,
Angoon, Hoonah, Tenakee, and Juneau all will have the opportunity
for advisory level snowfall tonight through Monday afternoon:
Hoonah through tonight for 3 to 6 inches and Juneau/Angoon for 4
to 10 inches of snowfall through Sunday. Confidence in highest
amounts are greater for Angoon than for Juneau.
We also raised wind speeds Monday afternoon for the southern
Panhandle behind the low with gusts to 40 mph for Prince of Wales.
These winds and likely those for the southern Inner Channels may need
to be increased further should model consistence remain good.
.LONG TERM...The wave mentioned above will be quickly moving east
and into British Columbia at the beginning of the extended range on
Monday evening. Strong westerly winds will be left over the
southern panhandle with a building southerly pressure gradient over
the remainder of the panhandle. This will be enough to change
precipitation type over to rain for the southern half of the area
with rain mixing in for areas farther to the north.
The next piece of energy in this active pattern will eject into the
gulf and develop a weak surface low which will move into the
northeast gulf early Wednesday. There remains model disagreement on
this low, but another round of enhanced precipitation across the
northern panhandle is likely. The 850 mb temperatures with this
system are progged to be around -6 to -7 C which will lead to
ptype issues. Boundary layer temperatures will be warm due to
southerly low level flow, but as the system approaches the
pressure gradient will reorient leading to a weakening of winds
especially across the northern panhandle. This system will bear
watching as significant accumulations will be possible in areas
that receive snow.
After this system, a very noticeable pattern change is expected to
occur as a broad trough develops over the Bering with an amplifying
ridge developing over the gulf. A strong shortwave feature will
drop southeast over the panhandle Friday into Saturday with another
round of precipitation. As the shortwave passes, winds will rapidly
shift northerly and strengthen over the area. This will usher a
colder airmass into Southeast Alaska. As expected, models are
struggling with the evolution of the pattern thereafter but a drier
period of weather after Saturday appears the most likely scenario
at this point.
Used the 12z GFS/ECWMF for updates through day 4 then transitioned
to WPC guidance for the remainder of the forecast.
&&
.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM AKST Monday
for AKZ026.
Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ026-028.
Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ023-027.
Strong Wind from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
AKZ027.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM AKST
Monday for AKZ024-025.
Strong Wind from 6 PM to 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ022.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Monday
for AKZ019-020.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST
Monday for AKZ021.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 PM AKST Monday
for AKZ029.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ043-051-052.
Gale Warning for PKZ022-033-035-036-041-042.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-031-032-034-053.
&&
JWA/TPS
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau3 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Hyder area got dumped on. Storm total from 12/25 to 0830 12/27 was 23 inches of new snow. The only impact was snow removal.
New snowfall 8 inches fell just south of Haines by 0900 12/26. The snow was dry so removal was easier than usual.
New snow measured by spotter was 7 inches the next morning 12/27 fell before evening on 12/26. Total snow on ground 16 inches. Low impact on removal due to light dry snow.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, December 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 665391, 665392, 665393.