Flash Flooding and Flood in Wisconsin, June 15, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
620 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

AT 3 AM...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM APOSTLE ISLANDS TO
KANSAS CITY MISSOURI. DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WERE IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S...AND IN THE 40S AND 50S IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THIS
FRONT. MEANWHILE FURTHER SOUTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN EASTERN NEBRASKA IN A BAND OF 900 TO 500
MB FRONTOGENESIS.

FOR TODAY...THE 15.00Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA... WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH IOWA THIS MORNING...AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
1.50 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA... NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. IN
ADDITION...THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS IN THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSE
TO 4 KM. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THIS SAME AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS. RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE AROUND AN INCH...WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS SEEING UP TO 2 INCHES. WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXPECT
THAT RAP AND NAM ARE TOO HIGH ON THEIR 0-1 KM MIXED LAYER
CAPES...OVERALL PREFER THE LOWER GFS AND ECMWF WHICH HAVE THESE
CAPES LESS THAN 750 J/KG. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RAP...A
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS HAVE VERY LITTLE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM
SHEAR...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR
TORNADOES.

FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE THE SCENARIO
FOR DENSE FOG. HOWEVER THE WINDS ABOVE 500 FEET REMAIN AROUND
20 KNOTS AND THE DRY AIR IS CAUSING DEW DEPARTURES OF 4 TO 8
DEGREES LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE 15.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE STRONG WESTERLIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM RESULTS IN 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE EXCESS
OF 50 KNOTS. HOWEVER THIS FRONT IS COMING THROUGH AT THE WRONG
TIME OF DAY AND THE 0-1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPES AT THIS TIME ARE
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...THUS NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. THE
NAM SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE INTERACTION FROM A
SYSTEM FROM A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
MEANWHILE THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM
SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST...SO WOULD TREND MORE TOWARD
THE GFS.

FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A SLIGHT
DEEPER TROUGH THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE 0-1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPES CLIMBING UP TO 1500 J/KG
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THEY DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR. THE
GFS HAS 0-6 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
HAS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. DUE TO THIS DISCREPANCY...THERE ARE A LOT
OF QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
SYSTEM. WHILE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...THEY DO SHOW THAT
THERE COULD BE INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST GULF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM NEB IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCT
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE MAIN TIMING FOR THESE LOOK TO
BE FROM 15-19Z AT KRST AND 16-20Z AT KLSE. WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT
COVERAGE AS THE SHRA/TSRA MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...LEFT THIS AS A
PERIOD OF VCTS/CB WITH MVFR CIGS AT THIS TIME. STRONGER SHRA/TSRA
AND PRECIP CORES WILL PRODUCE IFR VSBYS...AS ANY CONVECTION TODAY
SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. GOOD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR TONIGHT AS COOLER/DRIER CAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 5-9KTS AND THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING BR AROUND 12Z TUE TO A MINIMUM.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RRS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
529 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-161100-
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-
TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-
ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
529 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DOWNPOURS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THAT TIME PERIOD...IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCERN WHETHER ANY OF
THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT. HOWEVER
RAINFALL REPORTS WOULD BE APPRECIATED TODAY.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

BOYNE