Flash Flooding in New Jersey, June 15, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
158 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT.
THE LOW THEN PASSES TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE EXITING OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AND MOVES
ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND WAS
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY THROUGH NYC AND THEN OFF
SHORE EAST OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WARM FRONT WILL ADD TO THE INSTABILITY OF
THE AIR MASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE FARTHER TO THE EAST AND NORTH
A MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL LIMIT CHANCES OF THUNDER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED FOR HIGHER POPS IN THE WARMER AIR WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDER WHILE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND AREAS
OF FOG.

WILL CONFINE THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE THUNDERSTORM AS PW CONTENT
REMAINS QUITE HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES.

MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS THEY TRACK OVER THE
RIDGE.

SFC LOW LOOKS TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WITH NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NW TUESDAY. ECMWF LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM.

ANY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY PASS EAST OR WEAKEN WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TUESDAY. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT
WINDS ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS.

MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A BLEND WILL PROVIDE BEST
GUESS AVERAGE WHERE DISPARITIES ARE NOTED IN THE MOS...ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALOFT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY JET STREAM STAYS JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION FOR REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM A LOOSE HEIGHT GRADIENT WITH THE LOCAL AREA
BEING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LONGWAVE RIDGE TO A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
THAT EXHIBITS A TIGHTER HEIGHT GRADIENT. THE RIDGE WILL BE MORE FLAT
AND SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH ONE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HAVING PASSED TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...A LESS
AMPLIFIED ONE WILL BE MOVING IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH A STRONGER ONE PASSING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH CENTER MOVES RIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A DRY DAY TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE
PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES TO VALUES APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 0.6 AND 1 INCH...CONVEYING A
MUCH LESS HUMID AIRMASS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT HOWEVER. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH
GENERALLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS SO NO THUNDERSTORMS WERE
MENTIONED WITH THE FORECAST BUT THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST DO
INCREASE TO NEAR 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES. DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AS HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL DRIFT SWWD THRU THE CITY THIS AFTN. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU TUE AFTN.

SHWRS AND TSTMS WRN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTN...WITH IFR OR
LWR ERN PORTION. MVFR OR LWR INVOF TSTMS. ALL AREAS IFR OR LWR
TNGT. EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT UNCERTAIN...WITH THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MOST AREAS AOB 1/2SM...BUT NE WIND FLOW LENDS SOME
DOUBT. AS A RESULT TAFS ARE MAINLY ABV 1/2SM TNGT EXCEPT FOR KHPN.

WITH THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE METRO AT 17Z...VRB WIND DIRECTION
FCST ATTM. WINDS BECOME NE OVERNIGHT...THEN VRB OR SEA BREEZE FLOW
DEPENDING ON LOCATION TUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TSTMS MAY IMPACT THE ARPT BEFORE 19Z. ANY
PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTN SE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: ANY PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION THRU THIS EVE
NE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMD POSSIBLE IF CIGS DO NOT IMPROVE TO VFR
THIS AFTN DUE TO TSTMS IN THE AREA. ANY PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION
THIS AFTN SE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMD POSSIBLE IF CIGS/VIS DO NOT IMPROVE TO
VFR THIS AFTN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR 20-00Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY SHIFT TO NE EARLIER THAN FCST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE AFTN...TSTMS ENDING FROM W TO E WITH NW WINDS 15-20KT.
.TUE NGT...VFR WITH DECREASING NW WINDS.
.WED...VFR WITH SE FLOW DEVELOPING.
.THU...TSTMS POSSIBLE. POCKETS OF MVFR WITH SLY WINDS.
.FRI...VFR WITH NW FLOW.
.SAT...VFR WITH S FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATED WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING WITH A WARM FRONT THROUGH EXTREME WESTERN LONG
ISLAND AND JUST EAST OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST...MOVING SLOWLY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE FORECAST WIND AND SEAS REMAIN
UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.

SE WINDS WILL INCREASE...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN WATERS...AND
SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 25 KTS OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET FOR A TIME TODAY. WAVE WATCH III BUILDS SEAS TO 5
FEET ACROSS THESE WATERS. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...WILL ISSUE SCA FOR TODAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THE
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.

OTHERWISE...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES ACROSS THE OCEAN
ZONES TONIGHT...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. SUB SCA
EXPECTED.

WITH GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN PLACE...CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO STAY BELOW SCA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LOW POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND
INTO METRO NYC.

ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR TSTM COULD PRODUCE A QUICK HALF INCH...BUT
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT QPF IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.

WITH EACH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST...PRECIPITABLE WATERS COINCIDING WITH THESE ARE
FORECAST TO BE AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES. THEREFORE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH ANY OF THIS CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION
SUSTAINED...WOULD LEAD TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JM/PW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MET

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
315 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-161000-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
315 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-161000-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
315 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...NEW YORK HARBOR...LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND THE LONG
ISLAND BAYS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.