There was high wind on the coast and in the north interior.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SEW wrote it up.
There was high wind on the coast and in the north interior.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Seattle, WA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 12, 9:15 AM PST, 33 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PST THU NOV 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND WET FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING VERY WET AND
WINDY WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. RIVER
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN COOL AND UNSETTLED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ON THE COAST AND RADAR SHOWS
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER WESTERN SECTIONS. RAIN WILL SPREAD INLAND
DURING THE DAY AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND ON THE COAST.
THERE WILL ALSO BE WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE
WIND FORECAST HAS HIGH WIND FOR THE NORTH INTERIOR ZONES AND WIND
ADVISORY WIND FOR THE REST OF THE INTERIOR AND THE COAST. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH INTERIOR FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS
20-40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE
RIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES AND OVER THE ISLANDS. ACROSS MOST OF THE
REST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON WINDS WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY RANGE...20-
35 MPH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
THE MORNING RUN OF MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW MAXIMUM WIND ON THE NORTH
COAST IN THE HIGH WIND RANGE AS WELL. HAVE ADDED A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR THE NORTH COAST. MODELS SHOW WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT BUT THEY WILL STILL TOUCH THE LOW END ADVISORY
RANGE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE OVER THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 2500 FEET OVER THE MOUNT BAKER AREA AND
3000 FEET AROUND MOUNT RAINIER. PRECIPITATION RATES SHOULD BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ADVISORY AMOUNTS OF SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING OVER THOSE HIGHER ROADS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE RAPIDLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE ABOVE 5000 FEET BY EARLY EVENING. FOR THE
LOWER CENTRAL CASCADE PASSES THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TOO RAPIDLY TO
GET MUCH SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THOSE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS.
THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE THE COPIOUS RAIN THAT WILL FALL THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME MINOR MODEL VARIATION
ON TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
12Z RUNS OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF THE
AREA OF HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY DUE TO A SLOWER SOUTHWARD EXIT OF THE
STORM ON SATURDAY. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
OLYMPICS WITH 10-15 INCH BULLSEYES. SOME MODELS NOW SHOW THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IN THE CASCADES TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES INSTEAD OF
THE NORTH CASCADES. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH POSSIBLE
FLOODING ON OLYMPIC RIVERS FRIDAY MORNING...AND ON CASCADE RIVERS
LATER ON FRIDAY.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH THE MOISTURE
PLUME TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY...USHERING IN A COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MASS. HOWEVER ANOTHER RECENT CHANGE IN THE MODELS IS TO SLOW THE
SOUTHEAST SHIFT OF THE PLUME...THUS EXTENDING THE RAIN A LITTLE
LONGER INTO SATURDAY. KAM/BURKE
.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS20
SHOWS AT LEAST TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THE
BROAD TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND SNOW LEVELS AROUND 2000 FEET.
THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL SUGGEST AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT NOW DIFFER ON HOW THE PATTERN WILL UNFOLD. THE ECMWF
STILL SHOWS ANOTHER WESTERLY JET STREAM AND MOISTURE PLUME REACHING
THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY...BUT THIS ONE HAS A COOLER AIR MASS AND IS
SHORTER IN DURATION. THE GFS HAD A SIMILAR SOLUTION 24 HOURS
AGO...BUT NOW HAS A MORE TYPICAL WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT TRANSITION
ACROSS THE REGION. KAM
&&
.HYDROLOGY...MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON DURING THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS HAS NOT CHANGED. RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS
SHOW A LITTLE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. THE RESULT IS 18Z-00Z SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE PERIOD
OF AT LEAST MODERATE RAIN OVER SOUTHERN BASINS. THIS WILL LIKELY
GIVE HIGHER CRESTS ON THOSE RIVERS.
RECENT MODEL RUNS ALSO HAVE MORE RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS. THIS MEANS
RIVERS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO CREST JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE...SUCH AS
THE SATSOP AND BOGACHIEL...ARE NOW MORE LIKELY TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE.
AS BEFORE...ANY RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE CASCADES FROM THE NOOKSACK IN
THE NORTH TO THE COWLITZ IN THE SOUTH...AS WELL AS ANY OLYMPIC
PENINSULA RIVERS...COULD FLOOD. EVEN THE RIVERS OF SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON SUCH AS THE CHEHALIS AND ITS TRIBUTARIES COULD ALSO
FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES THAT HAVE
MAIN STEM RIVERS. BURKE
&&
.AVIATION...A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS WESTERN WA TODAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. RAIN WILL BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY ON THE NORTH COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 25-35KT...ESPECIALLY COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR. 33
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH -RA TODAY. S WIND TO 25 KT. CEILINGS
LOWERING OVERNIGHT TO MVFR RANGE. 33
&&
.MARINE...A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO MOST
WATER ZONES TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE THROUGH
WESTERN WA ON FRIDAY WITH WINDS EASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
WATERS ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE AREA ON MONDAY.
A WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN OF 15-22 FT WILL REACH THE COAST FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OCEAN SHORES IN
GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO
THE NORTH COAST WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. 33
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-CASCADES OF
PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH AND KING
COUNTIES-CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES-CENTRAL
COAST-EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA-EVERETT AND VICINITY-HOOD CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS
VALLEY AREA-NORTH COAST-OLYMPICS-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-TACOMA AREA-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-
WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-BREMERTON AND VICINITY-EAST PUGET
SOUND LOWLANDS-EVERETT AND VICINITY-HOOD CANAL AREA-SEATTLE
AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-TACOMA AREA.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR CASCADES OF PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-CASCADES
OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN
SKAGIT COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
CENTRAL COAST-NORTH COAST.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON PST SATURDAY
FOR CENTRAL COAST.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ADMIRALTY INLET-COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE
SAN JUAN ISLANDS-PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL-WEST ENTRANCE
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
&&
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTMLThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Lopez Island recorded 43g60 mph 948 AM to 518 PM.
The CWOP on the bluff west of downtown Bellingham recorded 42g60 mph 108 PM to 739 PM. Sandy Point Shores recorded 36g62 mph 1154 AM to 734 PM. Ferndale recorded 32g64 mph 1118 AM to 735 PM.
KNUW recorded 58 mph peak wind at 3 PM.
KHQM observed 41g49 mph at 653 PM.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Washington in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Washington, November 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 603534, 603533, 603532, 603535.