A strong low level jet from the southwest increased in advance of an approaching cold front. Some of these stronger winds aloft were able to mix to the surface and down some trees.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
A strong low level jet from the southwest increased in advance of an approaching cold front. Some of these stronger winds aloft were able to mix to the surface and down some trees. Near the community of Claypool Hill, one tree was blown down on College Estates Road. A few trees were blown down within the community of Bluefield.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 4, 6:54 AM EST, 51 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 654 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...RETURNING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO US FOR EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK. A CLIPPER MOVES BY MIDWEEK REINFORCING THE COLD AIR. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 635 AM EST SUNDAY... STILL GETTING MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS/RAIN IN THE WRN CWA ATTM...WITH MORE SCT ACTIVITY OVER THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE STILL IN LINE WITH EARLIER THINKING THAT PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EXIT THIS EVENING...SO NO CHANGES TO THE POPS. TEMPS HOWEVER WERE STILL RUNNING COOLER IN THE WEDGE AS HAVE NOT HAD ANY STRONG WARM AIR SURGE FROM HEAVIER SHOWERS REACH EAST OF THE MTNS THIS MORNING. STILL THINKING THE TEMPS WILL WARMING UP AS WE HEAD TOWARD NOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 330 AM... SURGE OF MOISTURE WORKING NWD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. WEDGE STILL HOLDING INTO THE EAST BUT WARMER RAIN PROCESSES WORKING DOWN THE WEDGE INTO THE NW NC MTNS INTO THE WRN NEW RIVER VALLEY. MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF BRING SWATH OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AND ENTERING THE PIEDMONT BY MIDDAY...THEN EXITING BEFORE DUSK. THE THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS EXISTS IN THE NEAR TERM WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AS LOW LEVEL JET OF 50+ KNOTS FROM THE SW SHIFTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...EXITING THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS LIMITED INSTABILITY AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...BUT COULD SEE SOME THUNDER IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS KEEPING ANY THREAT OF HIGHER WINDS EAST OF US...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A GUSTY SHOWER EAST OF A LYH/DAN LINE. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF WINDS OUT OF THE WEST. MODELS ESPECIALLY THE GFS ARE INDICATING 6-8MB PRESSURE RISES IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION MAV MOS FOR ROANOKE AND BOONE SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS THIS EVENING OF 20-25 KTS. LOCAL STUDY INDICATES THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR WIND ADVISORY. ATTM...AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND GIVEN THE NAM WHICH IS USUALLY STRONGER WITH WINDS IS NOT SHOWING THIS...WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT HIGH WINDS IN THE HWO...AND SEE HOW LATER MODELS AND TRENDS TURN UP THIS POTENTIAL WIND EVENT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AS WELL AND WILL SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WRN CWA BUT MOISTURE CLEARS OUT FAIRLY FAST TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. MAY SEE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES IN THE RAINELLE/RUPERT OVER TOWARD FLATTOP AREA OF WV BY LATE TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...STILL EXPECT SOME RISE THIS MORNING AND RIGHT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR WILL NOT REALLY GET INTO THE MTNS UNTIL AFTER 4 PM. SHOULD BE MILD ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST DESPITE LACK OF SUN WITH STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S WEST TO MID TO UPPER 60S EAST. TONIGHT...THE TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING FAST. WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP READINGS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR...BUT STILL LOOKING AT 20S IN THE WEST BY DAWN TO LOWER OR MID 30S EAST. SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING IN FAR WRN SLOPES. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM EST SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. AFTER SOME MORNING CLOUDS AND SNOW FLURRIES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS... STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM CLIPPER WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS LIKELY FAR NORTHWEST LATE. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE A CHALLENGE WITH SOME DECOUPLING POTENTIAL EARLY AND THEN MIXING ALONG THE RIDGES LATE. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S. FAST MOVING CLIPPER PROGGED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION TUESDAY WITH THE TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT CROSSING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SNOW TO THE NORTH. THE SREF...ECMWF AND CMC HINT THAT IT MAY CLIP THE EXTREME NORTHWEST. WILL HOLD ON TO THE LOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CONTINUING SOME ADDED CHANCES FOR LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS UNDER THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST...PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY. IT MAY BE A LITTLE MILDER AS A QUICK TONGUE OF 85H WARMING SLIPS UNDERNEATH THE PASSING WAVE TO THE NORTH. IN GENERAL HIGHS TUESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 50 IN THE PIEDMONT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BLUSTERY AND TURNING MUCH COLDER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST LATE. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS KEEP SNOW FLURRIES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EST SATURDAY... VERY COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK ON. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN PROJECTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST US/BAJA PENINSULA TOPPED BY A DECENT AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW...WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY COMBINING TO KEEP THE EASTERN US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD TROF. HOWEVER... MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR BY THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS KEEPS THE NEXT WAVE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH WHICH PREVENTS THE UPPER TROF FROM DIGGING AND ALLOWS THE FLOW TO FLATTEN. EURO SHOWS THE SAME ENERGY BUT DIGS IT MUCH DEEPER AND REINFORCES THE EASTERN TROF THROUGH FRIDAY. ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE COLDER EURO SOLUTION AND WILL SHADE THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION. ARCTIC AIR WILL BE POURING INTO THE REGION AS WE START WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND COLDER FOR MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH SOME MODERATION TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO HAVE AIR TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS EAST OF THE RIDGE. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE MOST PROBLEMATIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLACKENING ON THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE VERY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. SOME LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL SEE PERSISTENT BELOW ZERO WIND CHILL VALUES FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS OF MINUS 15 TO MINUS 25 OCCURRING THURSDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS EAST OF THE RIDGE WILL SEE WIND CHILLS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BOTTOMING OUT AT OR A BIT BELOW ZERO THURSDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 640 AM EST SUNDAY... TERMINALS HAVE BEEN PROBLEMATIC ALL NIGHT WITH CIGS/VSBY FLUCTUATING FROM LIFR TO MVFR. WEDGE TO REMAIN IN THE ROA/LYH/DAN AREA FOR ANOTHER 1-3 HOURS KEEPING CIGS DOWN THERE WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. OVERALL STILL EXPECT ALL SITES TO GET LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE RAIN THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. STILL HAVE SOME LOW LVL WIND SHEAR IN ALL SITES THRU LATE MORNING TIL MIXING GETS GOING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WINDS SHIFT FROM SW TO WNW...AND CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR. HAVE FROPA AT BLF/LWB AROUND 20Z....ROA/BCB 21Z...LYH/DAN 23Z. GOOD PRESSURE RISES BEHIND FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO ALL SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL BE SVR TURBULENCE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS GUST OVER 50 KNOTS AROUND 5000 FT MSL. SHOULD SEE CLEARING EAST OF THE MTNS AFTER 02Z...WITH BCB CLEARING OUT TOWARD MIDNIGHT WHILE BLF/LWB LINGER WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SNOW WILL BE AROUND AT LWB/BLF BUT THINK VERY LIMITED SO NOT ADDED TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED THIS MORNING AT ALL SITES...WITH MID TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON...OUTSIDE BLF/LWB. THUNDER THREAT APPEARS MEAGER SO NOT ADDED TO THE TAFS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BETTER THREAT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF DANVILLE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD RDU-CLT-FAY AND POINTS EAST. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE MOUNTAINS WILL MAINTAIN MVFR OR WORSE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT BLF...LWB. MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE RETURN OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...BUT TIGHT GRADIENT AT 850 MB WILL HELP MAINTAIN GUSTY CONDITIONS. CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT REINFORCING PUNCH OF COLDER AIR AND CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...DS/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...KK/MBS AVIATION...DS/RAB/WP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 315 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015 VAZ007-WVZ042-043-507-508-050815- TAZEWELL-MERCER-SUMMERS-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER- 315 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. SOME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH MAY OCCUR AT THE HIGHER RIDGES. IN ADDITION...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OVERNIGHT AND COULD BRING AN INCH OR TWO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NCZ001-002-018-VAZ009>020-022>024-WVZ044-050815- ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY- GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT- ROCKBRIDGE-MONROE- 315 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SOME GUSTS TO 45 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHER WINDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NCZ003-019-VAZ032>035-050815- SURRY-WILKES-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST- 315 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. A BURST OF STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING. SOME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH MAY OCCUR ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL ALSO COMBINE WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 5 BELOW ZERO LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NCZ004>006-020-VAZ043>047-058-059-050815- STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL- APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE- 315 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ARCTIC AIR MAY COMBINE WITH LINGERING NORTHWEST WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AROUND ZERO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A few trees were blown down in the community of Bluefield. On College Estates Road in Claypool Hill, one tree was toppled by the wind. Damage values are estimated.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, January 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 557436.