Damaging Winds in Texas, October 30, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
336 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.Short Term...

(Tonight and Saturday)

...Heavy rain and strong/severe thunderstorms possible through
tonight...

Currently, a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms continues to
work its way across the CWA this afternoon. Additional isolated
development is occurring west of our area over the Stockton Plateau.
The main upper level low remains west of our area, centered over
southwestern New Mexico. A strong vorticity maximum is rotating
around the southern end of the low this afternoon, and will impact
our area tonight.

All models take the upper level low a little farther south tonight
as it moves east. A slow-moving warm front stretches across the area
from just west of KSOA, arcing northeast to between KBBD and KBWD.
In addition, models hint at a weak surface trough/low developing
near the western end of this front, acting as a focus for new
thunderstorm development after 00Z. This would put the best chances
for new thunderstorms tonight across our southern and southeastern
counties, generally east of a Coleman to Sonora line. However, there
will still be a chance for at least scattered showers and
thunderstorms farther west, mainly through midnight for the rest of
the area.

With precipitable water values at 1" to 1.5", there will a
possibility of localized flash flooding, especially where any
training occurs, which is most likely for areas from Junction to
Brady to Brownwood and east. In addition to the flooding threat,
severe thunderstorms will also be possible, especially near the
warm front and any other mesoscale boundaries that form. The main
hazards will be strong winds, a marginal large hail threat, and an
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

As drier air moves in from the west overnight, the rain should move
eastward during the overnight hours, so have lesser chances after
06Z tonight for western areas.

Most of the rain should be moving out of the area by Saturday
morning. There may be a few very light showers with the low as it
comes across, but these are expected to be very isolated and very
light with minimal impact, so will not mention in the forecast. A
cold front will move through tomorrow, so we will be slightly cooler
across most areas tomorrow with northwest winds.

20

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday-Tuesday)

A dry, mild weather pattern is on tap Saturday through Tuesday as
the upper low departs to the east and a weak shortwave ridge of
high pressure builds across West Central Texas. Look for partly
cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid to upper 70s through the
period. The warmest day should be on Monday, when the weak upper
level ridge is overhead and the surface winds go light. We may
see a few places warm into the lower 80s.

(Wed-Fri)
Another deep upper trough is progged by models to dig across Southern
California by Wednesday and then lift northeast into the Central
Plains by Thursday night. Meanwhile, a large surface high
pressure system over the Mid Atlantic States will enable plenty
of gulf moisture to pump into West Central Texas Wednesday through
Friday. Showers and thunderstorms could form across the area Wed-
Thursday as a warm, moist airmass coupled with upslope flow
develops across West Central Texas. Precipitation may also form
along the pre-frontal trough/frontal boundary on Friday as the
upper level shortwave trough moves into Minnesota. Have inserted
chance Pops for next Wed-Fri.

26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 73  54  66  47 / 100  50  10   5
San Angelo 	 76  53  72  47 /  90  30  10   0
Junction 	 77  56  76  48 /  90  80  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

20/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
337 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-312045-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
337 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE MOST FAVORED AREA ALONG AND
EAST OF A BROWNWOOD TO SONORA LINE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF A BROWNWOOD...TO
MENARD...TO SONORA LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
428 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

TXZ128-139-140-154-155-302215-
COLEMAN TX-MCCULLOCH TX-BROWN TX-CALLAHAN TX-SAN SABA TX-
428 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MCCULLOCH...BROWN...
NORTHWESTERN SAN SABA...SOUTHEASTERN CALLAHAN AND SOUTHEASTERN
COLEMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 427 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR RISING STAR TO NEAR
WINCHELL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BANGS AROUND 450 PM CDT.
  BROWNWOOD AROUND 455 PM CDT.
  EARLY AROUND 505 PM CDT.
  BLANKET AROUND 515 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE MILBURN...US-
67 NEAR THE COLEMAN-BROWN COUNTY LINE...WHON...FIFE...THRIFTY...
OWENS AND US-283 NEAR THE MCCULLOCH-COLEMAN COUNTY LINE.

LAT...LON 3146 9909 3129 9917 3128 9960 3208 9913
      3208 9893 3184 9877
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 222DEG 38KT 3211 9892 3148 9925