A surface trough was present across West Texas with intense afternoon heating along this area. There was good instability across the Davis Mountains and surrounding area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
A surface trough was present across West Texas with intense afternoon heating along this area. There was good instability across the Davis Mountains and surrounding area. These conditions allowed for thunderstorms with gusty winds to develop.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 2, 1:23 PM CST, 4 hours 12 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 223 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015 .DISCUSSION... Stronger easterly surface winds/clouds have helped cool temperatures today. There is a plume of steeper mid level LR/s over spreading the PB from the NW and is seen in mid level ACC, but again not much expected to materialize from it. Better convective potential today driven by daytime heating/mid level instability focusing in/around the Davis Mtns. Any storms that do develop will dissipate btwn 03Z- 06Z. A better chance of rain will develop Sat, especially Upper Trans Pecos, GDP Mtns, and SE NM, as a mostly s-n oriented 50-70kt 3h jet will be w of the EC/SE NM plains. Also, sw mid level flow will tap into moist Pacific air, evident in the form of a 5h theta-e ridge axis. Furthermore there will be the opportunity for minor shrtwv trofs to move thru the sw flow aloft. Ensemble data shows that PW anomalys will be about 1-2 standard deviations above normal, thus brief heavy rain will be possible. Although convective trends will tend to decrease into late Sat night there is some indication that convection may renew (Trans Pecos/SE NM) toward 12Z with another shrtwv trof. Timing of a shrtwv will be important since after it passes rain potential will decrease, uncertainties assocd with this make it difficult to nail down timing now. Still there is potential for more storms across the w on Sunday PM. Local flooding issues may arise too as storms will have the potential to move across same areas Sat/Sun. Initial thoughts are that Monday will be more of a down day with the moist axis to the e and cooler temperatures, still PoPs warranted across the w. Meanwhile a deeper mid level low will move into AZ by Tue and then move e or se increasing the chance of rain Wed. Models diverge though with GFS progressive and ECMWF holding upper low just to the w and keeping very good rain chances (even heavy rain) across W TX/SE NM. Hard to tell which will verify as the Canadian goes with ECMWF and DGEX with GFS. 85h temps will mostly trend down thru the period so the hot temperatures of yesterday will be distant memory. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BIG SPRING TX 55 84 58 81 / 10 10 10 0 CARLSBAD NM 63 81 61 72 / 20 50 70 40 DRYDEN TX 68 88 65 85 / 10 10 10 0 FORT STOCKTON TX 66 87 62 83 / 10 20 20 10 GUADALUPE PASS TX 63 79 55 69 / 20 50 70 50 HOBBS NM 56 78 56 74 / 10 40 50 30 MARFA TX 52 82 57 75 / 20 40 40 30 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 61 84 59 81 / 10 20 20 10 ODESSA TX 61 84 59 81 / 10 20 20 10 WINK TX 65 86 64 83 / 10 30 50 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 1256 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075- 079>082-258-031800- GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS- NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES- DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL- VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS- LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN- DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU- BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS- 1256 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015 /1156 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ACROSS THE UPPER TRANS PECOS... AND DOWN THROUGH THE MARFA PLATEAU. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WIND WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BEING LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... MAINLY WEST OF A SEMINOLE TO ALPINE LINE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/ HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 137 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:37 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A thunderstorm moved across Reeves County and produced a 58 mph wind gust as recorded by the AWOS near the City of Pecos.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, October 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 598350.