Winter Weather in Texas, January 13, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
513 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

MVFR/IFR conditions are occurring at all sites, with brief LIFR
conditions possible at mainly KSOA, KJCT and KBBD. Expect slowly
improving conditions by late morning/early afternoon, although MVFR
ceilings are still expected to prevail at all sites. Patchy light
freezing drizzle may develop during the early morning hours
Wednesday at mainly KSJT and KSOA, but confidence is not high enough
to include in the current TAF package.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

A few areas of light freezing rain will continue early this
morning, mainly across the Interstate 10 corridor. Expect only
very light ice accumulations, mainly on exposed surfaces, bridges
and overpasses, as temperatures hover near to just below freezing.
This precipitation is forecast to decrease in coverage through the
next few hours.

Another cold day is forecast across all of West Central Texas.
Similar to what we saw yesterday, overcast skies will dominate,
with afternoon highs only making it into the mid to upper 30s for
most locations. Stayed above guidance for overnight lows, given
the expected extensive cloud cover. Lows will range from the
mid/upper 20s across the Big Country to the low/mid 30s across the
Interstate 10 corridor. Areas of drizzle will be possible, mainly
across the western half of the area, becoming freezing drizzle by
mid evening for most locations, as temperatures begin to drop
below freezing. The drizzle is forecast to be very light, so
little to no accumulation is expected, with little to no impacts.

Daniels

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

A positively tilted shortwave trough over the Desert Southwest
Wednesday morning will weaken and accelerate off to the east
during the day. As this feature traverses the area, we will
continue to see synoptic scale lift. Coupled with weak isentropic
ascent, the prospect of light drizzle remains in play. Most of the
lift looks to be in the drier mid-levels, but there is some low-
level forcing present as warm advection develops over the
retreating cold dome. Drizzle was included through Wednesday
afternoon. Given sub-freezing surface temps during the morning
hours, freezing drizzle was mentioned. However, little to no ice
accumulation is anticipated during this period. Temperatures will
continue to run well below normal with highs near 40 degrees.

A split flow pattern is expected to set up during the latter
portion of the work week, leading to increasing temperatures and
a return to southerly flow. Max temperatures will jump into the
50s on Thursday and should reach 60 degrees by Friday afternoon.
Thursday and Friday morning lows will remain a bit cool, with
readings generally at or below freezing. Some low-lying areas and
river valleys may fall into the mid 20s Thursday morning.

A northern stream trough is progged to move across the northern
Plains over the weekend, with a mid-level trough axis extending to
the south and west across the southern Rockies. This will bring
another cold front across West Central Texas on Saturday. Given
the lack of a strong trough and deep northerly flow in the wake of
the front, this airmass is expected to be warmer than the last few
cold fronts. Highs are forecast to take a step back into the mid
50s to near 60 degrees on Sunday, rebounding back into the 60s by
the beginning of next week.

There is some indication in the medium range models that precip
will develop over central TX early next week. The GFS is the
most aggressive, while the ECMWF maintains a weaker southern
stream trough and a dry forecast for West Central TX. We'll just
have to wait and see how future model runs handle this scenario.
No rain has been added to the forecast at this time.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 36  28  39  28  52 /  10  10  10   5   0
San Angelo 	 39  30  40  29  54 /  10  10  10   5   0
Junction 	 42  33  41  30  55 /  10  10  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

Daniels

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
450 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-141100-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
450 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.